Closing Recap

Tuesday, April 01, 2025

Another day, another decline coming out of a roller coaster overnight for US equity futures. Following a weak open with little bounce, relatively in-line economic data in terms of JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing PMI didn’t move markets much either. Perhaps the standout was the higher prices paid in the ISM, so the reaction skewed more negatively than positive. Unsurprisingly, the Fear and Greed Index registered just 18/100 (Extreme Fear) versus 30 (Fear) last week and 20 (Extreme Fear) last month. A year ago, the index was 70 (Greed). Early breadth favored decliners by a bit more than 2:1 as Smallcaps underperformed with IWM versus SPY and QQQ. Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples and Utilities were early outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Financials, Real Estate and Health Care led the underperformers though all 11 sectors headed lower. 

In noteworthy data today, inflation continues to be a partisan subject with Democrats and Independents expecting very high inflation over the coming year while Republicans expect none, according to @bespokeinvest. Somebody could be very wrong here, but it is that type of uncertainty fueling the markets right now. Speaking of uncertainty, the safe-haven trade powered gold to its best quarter since Q3 1986 with a gain of 18.5%. On a less positive performance, @KobeissiLetter noted Q1 was rough for US stocks with the S&P 500 dipping by 4.6% and lagging global stocks by 9.6%, the largest quarterly gap since 2009.

Heading into the final hour of trading, stocks had bounced back a bit and breadth was in favor of advancers 1.5:1 margin over decliners. Small caps continued to underperform with IWM flat versus SPY (+0.30%) and QQQ (+0.80%). Several S&P sector groups turned green late with Consumer Discretionary (+1%), Industrials (+0.56%) and Energy (0.59%) outperforming while Financials (-0.14%), and Health Care (-1.83%) led the underperformers.

Interesting stats: First-quarter mergers and acquisitions volume rose 12.6% to $984.38 billion from year-ago period, Dealogic data compiled for Reuters showed. This was due almost entirely to the Asia Pacific region. In the U.S., which accounts for almost half of global M&A transactions, first-quarter volume slipped 13% to $436.56 billion. New stock offerings rose about 4.1% to $160.22 billion, but some recent initial public offerings have failed to impress, and the number of offerings fell 17.7% to 1,065 according to Dealogic data.

• U.S. JOLTs job openings fell to 7.568 mln in February from 7.762M in January and vs. est. 7.616M.
• S&P Global manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.2 in the final print for March (vs. 49.8 preliminary), down from the 52.7 in February but held in expansionary territory for a third straight month, not seen since last April, May, and June, after 6 months in contraction.
• ISM U.S. manufacturing activity index 49.0 in March below consensus 49.5 and down from 50.3 in February while prices paid rises (inflationary) to 69.4 in March above vs 62.4 in February; ISM U.S. manufacturing new orders index 45.2 in March vs 48.6 in February and employment index 44.7 in March vs 47.6 in February
• Feb construction spending rises +0.7% topping consensus +0.3% to $2.196 trln, vs Jan -0.5% (prev -0.2%); US Feb private construction spending +0.9%, public spending +0.2%.

• Despite rolling for much of the day, a late bounce kept WTI May crude futures from going out at the lows. Still the day finished in the red with futures settling -$0.28/bbl, or -0.39%, to $71.20. Noise around tariffs continues to dominate but with inconsistent conclusions. Do tariffs hit the global economy hard and sink demand or will Trump tariffs slow oil exports from countries like Venezuela or Iran and lend price support from the supply side? Maybe some of each. Today’s other catalyst included headlines on OPEC+ likely to maintain its plan to gradually raise output from April. For now, we seem to have found a range, but stay tuned for more headlines.

• In Beverages, Food, Restaurants, & Grocers: KR was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Melius saying WMT is gaining share across most categories as evidenced by their far superior comps versus other conventional grocers; SHAK was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital as believes there is the potential for 10%+ upside to management’s guidance for adjusted EBITDA of $200-210M in 2025 in the event comparable sales continue to beat expectations; FWRG was upgraded to Buy at TD Cowen with $22 tgt. In Beverages: KDP was upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley saying they see this as an opportune entry point as it thinks the market is not recognizing KDP’s building corporate OSG/EPS growth prospects vs CPG peers.
• In Consumer Products: EL must face a lawsuit accusing the cosmetic giant of defrauding shareholders by concealing its overdependence on improper gray-market sales in China, a federal judge in Manhattan ruled on Monday – Reuters reported. ULTA upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs and raised tgt to $423 from $384 noting the firm has been on the sidelines with this name since December 2022 given its concerns around the normalization of beauty industry sales and prestige market share loss, but as it looks out to FY25, it believes it has likely reached a bottom in regard to both concerns.

• In Leisure products: gun companies (SWBI, RGR, AOUT) active as U.S. unadjusted criminal background checks rose 11% to 2.58M in March, according to data from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS). Compared to a year earlier, background checks decreased 1.9% from 2.63M.
• In Autos: Monthly Chinese electric vehicle monthly delivery data out as LI reported vehicle deliveries for March of 36,674 units vs. 28,984 y/y; NIO reported deliveries rose 14% m/m for March of 15,039 vs. 13,192 m/m; XPEV delivers 33,205 units in March, up 268% YoY. Outside of EV’s, automakers including GM, STLA, Ford, and TSLA March sales figures trickle in while in Europe Tesla car sales in France plunged 37% in March. In auto retail, AZO was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs and downgraded GPC to Sell from Neutral. Fords (F) Q1 U.S. sales fell -1.3% y/y largely due to the discontinuation last year of its Ford Edge SUV while its retail sales, which excludes its fleet business, were up 5% y/y.
• In Events: LYV and SEAT a focus as President Trump signed an executive order aimed at cracking down on ticket-price gouging and other exploitative practices by middlemen like ticket brokers, calling for stronger enforcement of consumer-protection and tax laws. The order directs the Federal Trade Commission to more rigorously enforce existing law governing the use of bots that help scalpers scoop up hot tickets, including by issuing fines.

• In Metals & Mining: FCX lowered its Q1 forecast for gold-sales to be roughly 100,000 ounces below its prior forecast of 225,000 ounces after shipment timing issues in Indonesia led to a deferral of a portion of its quarterly production to future periods. Freeport added that the average realized price for copper is expected to be roughly $4.40 per pound in Q1, compared with $3.94 per pound y/y.
• In Energy: CVX announced the sale of majority interest in its East Texas Gas Assets; the transaction is anticipated to generate over $1.2B in value to Chevron at current Henry Hub prices through the multi-year capital carry, retained working interest, and overriding royalty interest; EE 7M share Spot Secondary priced at $26.50.
• In Industrials: TKR shares fell as announces CEO transition as Tarak B. Mehta departs as CEO and director and Richard G. Kyle appointed interim President and CEO.

• Healthcare ETF (XLV) tumbled -1.83% as the sector remains under pressure.
• AXSM reported mixed phase III PARADIGM in MDD as in the overall patient population, the study did not demonstrate a statistically significant change on the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) total score compared to placebo, the study’s primary endpoint (helped reduce symptoms in some patients with major depressive disorder who also suffered from excessive daytime sleepiness).
• GMAB was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Bernstein saying the share price is "far from fully discounting" the Darzalex loss of exclusivity.
• GRI shares jumped after the IDMC recommends continuation of study with no safety concerns.
• JNJ shares fell after a U.S. bankruptcy judge rejected its $10 billion proposal to end tens of thousands of lawsuits alleging that its baby powder and other talc products cause ovarian cancer.
• LLY, PTCT, RYTM added to Overweight Tactical Ideas list at Wells Fargo.
• OGN announced that it has acquired from BIIB regulatory and commercial rights in the U.S. for TOFIDENCE(TM), a biosimilar to ACTEMRA(R), for intravenous infusion.
• In Life Sciences: The Financial Times reported last night that BDX is in talks with TMO and DHR for a potential sale of its life sciences unit. Becton Dickinson had in February announced its plan to separate the unit, which consists of bioscience and diagnostic solutions, after the Financial Times reported that activist Starboard Value had taken a stake in the company and was pushing for the divestiture.

• In Hardware: for AAPL, UBS said based on its analysis of Counterpoint data, global iPhone unit sell through was down -1% y/y in the month of February vs flattish market growth as Apple continues to cede share in key markets like China and Europe with sell through down ~17% and 12% respectively.
• In Software: PRGS delivered better 1QFY25 with revenue/EPS ahead of expectations driven by steady demand across the product portfolio while mgmt guides Q2 EPS and revs above consensus and raises FY EPS to $5.25-$5.37 from prior $5.00-$5.12 (est. $5.06) and boosts FY adj operating margin. RBLX partnered with GOOGL to scale immersive advertising; Launches rewarded video ads. WNS shares jumped after Reuters reported the company is exploring a sale after receiving takeover interest from potential buyers including Capgemini.
• In Semiconductors: Chip stocks were in focus after Commerce Chief Lutnick signaled he could withhold promised Chips Act grants as he pushes companies in line for subsidies to expand their US projects.