Market Review: April 15, 2024

Closing Recap

Monday, April 15, 2024





DJ Industrials




S&P 500








Russell 2000













U.S. stock markets tumbled all day, adding to last week losses as stubbornly high U.S. inflation, lower rate cuts expectations, surging Treasury yields, and the possibility of an expanding war in the Middle East took its toll. U.S. stocks dropped below some key technical support levels today as the S&P 500 (SPX) crashed below its 50dma support of 5,115 as stocks finish at afternoon lows, while Smallcaps back to underperformance amid rising Treasury yields and lower rate cut expectations with the Russell 2000 falling below its 100dma support around 1,988 (after breaking its 50dma support around 2,042 last week). The Nasdaq 100 QQQ’s also fell below its 50dma support of $438 as several levels being tested at the same time. Another pop in Treasury yields, with the 10-yr topping 4.64%, up 14-bps to highest since November on stronger retail sales data did not help interest rate sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs) and certainly not helping market case for rate cuts by the Fed anytime sooner (especially given the hotter inflation readings recently). The pullback began a few weeks back, off all-time highs for the Nasdaq and S&P as inflation readings have disappointed Wall Street, lowering expectations for rate cuts (down from three expected cuts prior). Markets are also heading into earnings season for the first quarter after banks reported uninspiring results last week (though GS was solid today). Tomorrow morning, we get earnings from UNH and JNJ in the Healthcare space (both Dow components). Stocks accelerated afternoon losses after reports that Israel’s military chief of staff said there will be a response to Iran’s launch of so many missiles, drones towards Israeli territory as geopolitical risks intensify. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked this afternoon, hitting highs of 19.46 topping last Friday high of 19.20 as investors starting hedging bets further.

Economic Data

  • New York April Empire State factory index tumbled to -14.3 reading vs est. -5.2 while current business conditions index -14.3 in April (consensus -7.5) vs -20.9 in March, new orders index -16.2 in April vs -17.2 in March, prices paid index +33.7 in April vs +28.7 in March, and employment index at -5.1 in April vs -7.1 in March.
  • March Retail Sales ex-autos rose +1.1% (vs. est. +0.4%) and vs February; March cars/parts sales -0.7% vs Feb +2.5%, Retail Sales Ex-autos/gasoline +1.0% vs Feb +0.5% (prev +0.3%) and March Retail Sales Ex-autos/gas/building materials/food services +1.1% (cons +0.4%) vs Feb +0.3%.
  • U.S. April housing market index 51 in-line with consensus 51 and prior month; April index of current single-family home sales 57 versus 56 in March, April index of home sales over next six months 60 versus 62 in March and April index of prospective buyers 35 versus 34 in March (previous 34).
  • Feb Business Inventories rose +0.4%, in-line with consensus +0.4% and vs January unchanged; Feb business sales +1.6% vs Jan -1.0% (prev -1.3%); Feb retail inventories ex-autos unrevised at +0.4% (prev +0.4%).
  • US credit card delinquency rates are now at their highest on record, according to the Philadelphia Fed last week; in Q4 2023, more credit card balances were 30+ and 60+ days past due compared to any other period in history; the percentage of credit card balances at least 30 days past due is now ~3.5%; total credit card debt has skyrocketed in recent months and is now at a record $1.3 trillion.

Commodities, Currencies and Treasuries

  • U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $85.41/bbl, down 25 cents, 0.29% while Brent Crude futures settle at $90.10/bbl, down 35 cents, 0.39%, both off earlier lows despite weekend geo-politics. Prices pared losses this afternoon Israel’s military chief of staff said there will be a response to Iran’s launch of so many missiles, drones towards Israeli territory.
  • Gold prices settle at $2,383 an ounce, rising $8.90 and reversing off earlier losses (lows $2,340.20) as the rhetoric between Iran/Israel ramps up. Meanwhile the dollar and Treasury yields advanced given stronger U.S. economic data (retail sales) and recent higher inflation readings (CPI).
  • The Japanese yen weakens to a fresh 34-year low near 153.70/USD while the 30yr touches 4.75% for the first time in 5 months and 10-yr at 4.65%. 10-year Treasury yields have risen by more than 45bp so far this month. After today’s hotter-than-expected retail sales number, traders aren’t pricing in a full rate cut until November.





WTI Crude















10-Year Note




Sector News Breakdown

Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:

  • In Retail: PVH was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush and raised the price tgt to $128 from $113 as they view the ~25% selloff post-EPS as a buying opportunity (SPX -2%) and believes PVH still has hundreds of bps of margin expansion opportunity and is encouraged by improving trends in North America. CPNG was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup saying a recent increase in membership fee by the South Korean e-commerce firm indicates management’s will to manage profit margins. BYON extends recent weakness as shares declined for the 12th straight trading day.
  • In Food & Beverages: STZ was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus noting shares are trading at 18.6-times Argus’s revised FY25 earnings estimate; however, they think a higher multiple is warranted, given the company’s prospects for strong sales and earnings and management’s plans to increase beer output. BRFS was upgraded to Overweight at JP morgan supported by the accelerating international market, which is contributing to an improved outlook with good earnings momentum ahead of Q124, where it is now+13.3% ahead of the street.

Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:

  • In Autos: TSLA is laying off more than 10% of its global workforce, Electrek reported citing an internal company-wide email. According to the report, this means that at least 14,000 employees will be laid off, but it is unclear which specific teams will be most or least affected by Tesla’s layoffs. TSLA said it is cutting the monthly price of its FSD (Full Self-Driving) autonomous subscription by 50% (to $99/mo from $199/mo). In auto suppliers, Evercore downgrades MGA to In Line (from OP) driven by FSR headwinds in both warrant ownership & Steyr volumes.
  • In Leisure Products: MBUU downgraded to MP from OP at Raymond James saying their shift to neutral stance is in response to the loss of Tommy’s Boats, one of MBUU’s largest dealers, which last week filed a civil complaint alleging breach of contract among other transgressions, seeking compensatory and punitive damages.


  • While still the top S&P sector outperformer YTD (XLE +14.7%), energy stocks have pulled back off highs with oil slipping after Iran launched its attack on Israel this Saturday with 300 drones, though did no damage as Israel and US countermeasures prevented it. In Refiners, DK tgt to $27 from $32 at TD Cowen, MPC to $210 from $203, PBF to $54 from $49 and PSX to $164 from $160 into earnings season saying they sees most upside to Q124 consensus for MPC and some to VLO and DK could see downside if it fails to announce a strategic update. TD Cowen increases its FY25 crack assumption by $2/bbl because of increased war-related disruptions.

Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:

  • In Banks/Brokers: GS reported Q1 revenue of $14.21B vs. est. $12.98B while quarterly profit jumps 28% on investment banking strength (Q1 EPS $11.58, consensus $8.56); said higher fees from underwriting debt and stock offerings as well as advising on deals lifted Goldman’s investment banking fees up 32% to $2.08B; MTB Q1 EPS misses views but shares rebounded; SCHW Q1 net income fell 15% y/y to $1.36 billion in the quarter, but EPS of $0.74 ex items beat the $0.73 est. as revs slid -7.3% to $4.74B but topped the $4.71B estimate; clients daily average trades rose to 5.96 million, up 1.1% from a year ago.
  • In Credit Card monthly charge off/delinquency data: AXP preliminary USCS card member loans 30 days past due loans as a % of total 1.4% at March end vs 1.5% at Feb end; JPM said credit card delinquency rate 0.79% at March end vs 0.80% at Feb end and that credit card charge-off rate 1.49% in March vs 1.58% in Feb.; Citigroup (C) said credit card charge-offs 2.90% in March vs 2.27% in Feb and credit card delinquency rate 1.47% at March end vs 1.49% at Feb end.
  • In REITs: MPW said it received $1.1B of cash proceeds from the sale of a majority interest in five Utah hospitals through a newly formed JV ($886M) and secured debt placed in conjunction with the transaction ($190M); CLPR was double downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Raymond James after unexpected office lease termination and its concerns of potential impacts yet to come, saying the negative outcome subsequently created a loan covenant violation with the property’s mortgage lender.
  • In FinTech: AVDX was downgraded to Sell at Goldman Sachs citing limited upside to revenue trends over the next year and risk of multiple compression if revenue growth into 2025 disappoints, while remains constructive on payment technology stocks with focus on continued resilience in consumer spending and reasonable valuations for the group. Buy TOST, MA, GPN, and BILL.

Biotech & Pharma:

  • BHVN shares declined after the company gave a limited update from an early-stage trial of its autoimmune drug candidate, BHV-1300, that disappointed Wall Street.
  • MRNS shares tumbled as disclosed that its interim analysis of its Phase III RAISE trial did not meet pre-defined stopping criteria, with the enrollment completed at 100 patients with topline results expected summer of 2024; also provided preliminary 1Q net product revenues for ZTALMY of $7.4M-$7.6M (vs. $6.75M consensus).
  • NMRA shares slide after disclosing its Phase 1 trial of NMRA-266 has been placed on clinical hold after pre-clinical safety issues arose in animal studies; the company said it is working with the FDA to evaluation the potential to resolve the clinical hold. 
  • NVAX noted hedge fund Shah Capital recommends appointment of two new independent directors, Suresh Katta and Venkat Peri, to Novavax board. Shah Capital owns approximately 6.7% of the outstanding common stock.
  • ONVO announces positive phase 2 results for FXR314 in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis showing both reduction in liver fat content and strong safety and tolerability compared to placebo.
  • RARE said it reported observing side effects in some patients in a phase 1/2 study of GTX-102, a treatment for a genetic disorder that affects the nervous system.
  • RVPH said previous financial statements for FY22, interim financial statements qtr ended sept 30, 2022, no longer be relied upon; interim financial statements for quarterly periods in FY2023 should no longer be relied upon.

Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:

  • In Managed Care: Goldman Sachs noted Florida’s Medicaid agency released the long-anticipated results for its Medicaid managed care RFP, awarding contracts to five providers (down from nine prior). CNC, HUM, and ELV maintained statewide contracts, while MOH (1%-2% of EPS), UNH (<0.5%), and CVS (<0.5%) were not awarded new contracts. Goldman says this outcome as best-case outcome for CNC and missed opportunity for MOH.
  • In MedTech Research: ITGR upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank America and raised tgt to $135 from $105 saying they should benefit from the emergence of pulsed field ablation (PFA) to treat atrial fibrillation. MASI was upgraded to buy from Hold at Stifel and raised tgt to $170 from $148 as sees potential upside to announced plan to spin-off its consumer business, which includes its consumer health and audio products.

Aerospace & Defense

  • In Research: LMT was upgraded to Overweight and TGI to Neutral at JP Morgan saying the firm is constructive on Defense into Q1, given underperformance YTD and weak sentiment despite a solid top line outlook; consistent with this view and is more wary of commercial OE exposure, given the pressure on 737 production expectations.
  • U.S. defense firms remain well bid early (GD, NOC) on growing geopolitical risks due to conflict in the Middle East after a retaliatory attack by Iran on Israel over the weekend.
  • In Suppliers: SPR is limiting overtime and hiring as production declines due to lower output of 737 MAX jets, Reuters reported late Friday, citing Spirit AeroSystems spokesperson Joe Buccino.

Materials, Metals & Mining

  • In Metals: most base-metal futures rose (AA, CENX, FCX) after the US and UK banned exchanges from dealing in Russian metals. The London Metal Exchange on Saturday banned from its system Russian metal produced on or after April 13 to comply with new U.S. and UK sanctions imposed for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions aim to restrict revenues for Russia from the export of metal produced by companies such as Rusal and Nornickel that help to fund its military operations in Ukraine. 
  • In Lithium/Chemicals: PLL shares rise after saying that the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality’s Division of Energy, Mineral, and Land Resources has issued an approval of our mining permit for the construction, operation, and reclamation of the proposed Carolina Lithium project in Gaston County, North Carolina.
  • In Industrials: Prysmian (PRYMY) has proposed to acquire Encore Wire (WIRE) for $290.00 per share in cash for a total enterprise value of approximately €3.9 billion, representing a multiple of 8.2x EV/2023A EBITDA and 6.3x EV/2023A EBITDA, including run-rate synergies.

Hardware, Internet, Media & Telecom

  • In Telco/Media: DJT shares tumbled after S-1 files to sell, up to 21,491,251 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon the Exercise of Warrants, up to 146,108,680 Shares of Common Stock and up to 4,061,251 Warrants to Purchase Common Stock; Barron’s noted this weekend that Berkshire Hathaway continued to accumulate shares of Liberty Sirius XM Holdings in recent days and now holds over 30% of the tracking stock for Sirius XM Holdings, the satellite ratio company. FYBR was upgraded to Buy, raise PT to $30 at Citigroup saying fiber access is likely to be the net winner for subscriber gains in the broadband market through 2030. Frontier is scaling fiber growth, which should support overall company revenue growth by the 2H24 and in future years.

Software movers:

  • AAPL shares weak after research firm IDC data showed AAPL’s smartphone shipments dropped ~10% in Q1 2024, hurt by intensifying competition by Android smartphone makers. With a 17.3% market share, AAPL loses top spot to Samsung, which was at 20.8% in Jan-Mar quarter and China’s Xiaomi third with 14.1%.
  • BLKB shares rose after Clearlake Capital said it delivered a letter to Blackbaud’s Board containing a non-binding proposal to acquire all its outstanding shares for $80 per share; Clearlake reports an 18.2% stake in BLKB.
  • CRM is in advanced talks to acquire data-management software provider INFA the WSJ reported this weekend, according to people familiar with the matter. Informatica has a market capitalization of more than $11 billion after a 43% run-up in its shares this year as traders bet on a deal. The price being discussed is below Informatica’s current share price of $38.48, according to the Wall Street Journal
  • CSCO upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank America and raise tgt to $60 from $55 as expects Networking to start normalizing and see renewed growth driven by Cisco’s share gains in Ethernet-based AI buildouts of hyperscalers; expects Security growth to accelerate with the help of firewall stabilization.
  • REZI agreed to buy SNPO for about $821 million; Resideo said it will pay $10.75 a share in cash for Snap One, a 32% premium to Friday’s closing price of $8.14. Resideo said the transaction, which it expects to complete in the second half of the year is worth about $1.4 billion including debt.


  • Citigroup opens a 30-day upside catalyst watch on MCHP as expects to outperform during earnings season on negative sentiment and its expectation of positive commentary on 2H24 bookings. Also opens a 30-day upside catalyst watch on INTC noting the stock is down ~29% YTD and firm believes the stock is experiencing negative sentiment due to the foundry businesses losses.


Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.