Closing Recap

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

U.S. stocks were very choppy all morning before rallying this afternoon as markets reacted positively to Commerce Secretary Lutnick comments on tariffs and trade. With the afternoon bounce, the S&P 500 took out yesterday highs and made it a 6^th straight day of gains as market breadth was strong and ten of eleven S&P sectors were firmly higher with only energy lagging behind a decline in oil prices. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick in his comments to CNBC said a 10% tariff is virtually not going to change prices. He also said they have a trade deal with one country pending approval though he said he would not name which country. “I am awaiting approval from the other country before announcing”, Lutnick said. The interview followed comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent earlier. The parade of comments about trade/tariffs didn’t end as President Trump, speaking in Michigan talked about autos, tax cut deal among other things.

Communications (XLC), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Healthcare (XLV) each six consecutive up days. Earnings have been center stage the first two days of the week (with big names yet to come this week with AAPL, AMZN, META, MSFT) but there remains a close eye on tariffs and trade deals with, as well as a surge of economic data the next few days (ADP payrolls, GDP, Chicago PMI and core-PCE inflation data all tomorrow morning alone)! The Earnings parade continues tonight with Visa (V), Starbucks (SBUX), Boking Holdings (BKNG) and Mondelez (MDLZ) ahead of earnings in the AM from Dow component Caterpillar (CAT), Humana (HUM), Yum Brands (YUM, and GE Health (GEHC) among them. Markets trying to do something special as, Bespoke invest tweets: “The S&P needs to close above 5,611.85 tomorrow for this to be the first month since 1952 (when the 5-day trading week began) to finish green after seeing an intra-month drop of 10%+.”

• JOLTS Job Openings for March reported at 7.192M (below est. 7.500M and vs. prior 7.568M.
• U.S. March goods-trade Gap widens to record $162B; vs. est. $145B; advance March wholesale inventories +0.5%; U.S. advance March retail inventories excluding autos +0.4%.
• Dallas Fed Texas service sector revenue index 3.8 in April vs 1.3 in March; Dallas Fed Texas service sector index of general business activity outlook -19.4 in April vs -11.3 in March.
• US February 20-metro area home prices +4.5% (consensus +4.7%) from year ago vs +4.7% in January (previous +4.7%) — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. US February home prices in 20 metro areas +0.4% seasonally adj (consensus +0.4%) vs revised +0.4% in January (previous +0.5%).

• June gold settles fell -$14.10, or 0.42% to settle at $3,333.60 while Crude oil prices ended notably lower, hitting back near early April lows. WTI crude oil fell -$1.63 or 2.63% to settle at $60.42 per barrel. July WTI dipped below $60/bbl before staging a modest recovery to trade just above that mark.

• GM reported Q1 adj EPS $2.78, vs. est. $2.72; Q1 sales and rev. $44.02B, +2.3% y/y, vs. est. $43.03B; Q1 adj EBITDA fell -9.8% y/y to $3.49B vs. est. $3.45B; investor call for Q1 results delayed to May 1 "based on recent reports regarding updates to trade policy" said telling folks not to rely on prior guidance, will update when Co has more information around tariffs.
• ABG shares declined after posting Q1 adjusted net income of $134.3M, below last year’s $147M while quarterly revs dipped -1% y/y to $4.15B.

• In Retail: AMZN shares were volatile after reports the company is considering showing a tariff surcharge on items sold via its site for ultra-low-price items, the company confirmed to CNBC. The company stated that the plan "was never approved" and is "not going to happen," according to CNBC. The company responded after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Amazon’s announcement that it will include the price of tariffs on the price tag for products is a hostile act. BYON Q1 revs -39.4% y/y to $231.7M, below est. $288.1M, but said delivers significant financial improvement across key operational guideposts –said expects transition to revenue growth in less than 60 days.
• In Restaurants: EAT shares slide despite reporting better Q3 top and bottom-line results ($2.66/$1.43B vs. est. $2.56/$1.38B) along with comp sales +28/2% as Chili’s saw a comp sales rise of 31.6% and guided year revs $5.33B-$5.35B vs. est. $5.25B. YUM reports tomorrow morning.

• Home Furnishing: LEG shares jumped as reported adjusted 1Q25 EPS of $0.24, above the Street view of $0.22; sales were $1.02B, down 6.8%, with volume down 5% and selling prices and currency down 2%. Overall EBITDA margin increased 80 basis points to 9.6%. Maintains 2025 Sales and EPS Guidance

• In Lodging: HLT lowered its earnings forecast for 2025, as projected full-year net income between $1.707B-$1.749B, down from its previous view of $1.829B-$1.858B; also cuts forecast for 2025 room revenue growth, a key metric in the hospitality industry, to be flat to up 2%, compared to 2% to 3% previously. MAR announced just now to acquire the lifestyle/micro-urban hotel brand citizenM for $355M.

• In Pipelines: Reuters reported China has waived the 125% tariff on ethane imports from the United States imposed earlier this month, two sources with knowledge of the matter said on Tuesday. The move will ease pressure on Chinese firms that import U.S. ethane for petrochemical production. Ethane importers in China include Satellite Chemical, SP Chemicals, Sinopec, Sanjiang Fine Chemical and Wanhua Chemical Group while the key U.S. exporters are Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Energy Transfer (ET).

• In Consumer Lending: SOFI Q1 results beat as EPS $0.06 topped the $0.03 consensus while revs rose 20% y/y to $771.8M vs. est. $739M; boosted its EPS outlook for 20205 to $0.27-$0.28 (from $0.25-$0.27) and revs $3.235B-$3.31B from prior $3.2B-$3.275B.
• In Financial Services: SPGI said it plans to separate S&P Global Mobility, its mobility division, into a separate public company; reported a top and bottom line beat for Q1 while cut FY25 adjusted revenue growth view to 4%-6% from 5%-7% on a lower profit outlook as well.
• In Banks: WFC announces common stock dividend and new $40B common stock repurchase program; GS Chief Executive Officer David Solomon said he believed that activity in mergers and public listings will find a comfortable level despite uncertainty that’s led to a slowdown in activity across investment banks.

• HIMS shares jumped after announced a long-term collaboration with NVO designed to make proven obesity care and treatments more accessible, more affordable, and more connected for millions of Americans.
• MRK said it breaks ground on new $1B biologics center of excellence in Wilmington, Delaware and that the new facility to create 500 full-time roles and 4,000 jobs
• PFE mixed Q1 as EPS $0.92 topped the $0.67 estimate but revs of $13.7B missed the $13.9B estimate; reaffirmed its 2025 financial guidance (doesn’t include any potential impact related to future tariffs); says on track to exceed net cost savings targets and sees $4.5B of net cost savings by end of 2025.
• REGN shares fall on miss as Q1 adjusted EPS $8.22 below consensus est. $8.48; Q1 revs $3.03B vs. est. $3.24B; cuts 2025 capex to $850M-$950M; Q1 sales of dry eye disease drugs Eylea and Eylea HD fell 26% to $1.4B; Q1 global sales for its blockbuster lung disease drug, Dupixent, rose 19% in Q1 to $3.67B.
• TEM announced the publication of its study, "Analytical Validation of NGS-based Comprehensive Liquid Biopsy Assay for Therapy" in the Journal of Molecular Diagnostics. Data from this study supports the utility of xF+ as a non-invasive technique to detect actionable variants including resistance mutations, identify clinically relevant biomarkers, and monitor disease progression.

• In Industrials: HON better results as Q1 adj EPS 2.51 vs. est. $2.21; Q1 revs $9.82B vs. est. $9.6B; raises lower end of 2025 adjusted EPS forecast to $10.20-$10.50 from $10.10-$10.50 a share vs estimates of $10.29; trims FY sales guidance to $39.6-$40.5B from $39.6-$40.6B; CR was upgraded to Buy (raised tgt to $190) at UBS after the recent A&D investor event and yesterday’s Q125 update, saying they are increasingly confident in the long-term earnings outlook and M&A opportunity. PCAR slumped early on mixed results (EPS miss/revs beat).
• In Transports: UPS Q1 profit and revenue beat with adj EPS $1.49 vs. est. $1.38; Q1 revs $21.5B vs. est. $21.02B; said it would not provide any updates to its previously provided financial guidance for the full year; expects to cut workforce by about 20,000 jobs in 2025 and close 73 leased and owned buildings by end of June. Truckers (CHRW, LSTR, JBHT) and rails (CSX, UNP, NSC) names to watch as CNBC reported the Port of Los Angeles executive director says for May arrivals, see 20 canceled sailings, about quarter of normal arrivals we have; also said China shipments makes up about 45% of business here in Los Angeles.
• In Aerospace & Defense: Texas space commission selects LUNR to advance earth reentry and microgravity biomanufacturing spacecraft; Texas space commission awards intuitive machines up to $10M grant; OSIS gets orders for $50M to support deployment of cargo and vehicle inspection solutions; S&P affirms BA ‘BBB-’ rating, removes CreditWatch negative on improving production and cash usage; outlook negative. WSJ reported that Airbus (EADSY) agreed to acquire some Spirit AeroSystems facilities that make parts for its jets, moving to take direct control of production in a bid to stabilize supply chains after months of disruption. For RTX, U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of advanced medium range air-to-air missiles and related elements and program support to Poland for an estimated cost of $1.33 billion, the Pentagon said
• In Chemicals: SHW reported an EPS beat ($2.25 vs. $2.16) on slight revs miss, helped by higher prices for its industrial paints; its paint stores group unit, Q1 net sales rose 2.3% to $2.94 billion; rival paint company PPG expected to report earnings tonight after the close.

• In Towers: AMT shares jumped on earnings results and guidance (expects full-year 2025 total property revenue between $9.97B-$10.12B, up from its prior forecast of $9.92B-$10.07B) while peer SBAC shares also surged as reported Q125 results that were slightly better than expected, with a guide that matched.

• CDNS reported a largely in-line Q1, but commentary suggests the Company saw a "very good bookings quarter," particularly on the recurring side; China grew ~19%1 in Q1; FY guide was raised nominally.
• OKTA will replace BERY in the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, May 1. S&P 500 constituent AMCR is acquiring Berry Global Group in a deal expected to close soon.
• NXPI shares fell after saying CEO Kurt Sievers will retire by year end and insider Rafael Sotomayor to take over in October; reported Q125 results and Q225 guidance largely in line with Consensus; posted lower-than-expected gross margins on the print and guide.