Closing Recap

Thursday, June 12, 2025

U.S. stocks remain incredibly strong and resilient, taking good, bad, or indifferent news favorably, as the S&P finished higher for the 4^th time in the last 5 days. Just how strong have market been? Well, the S&P 500 has recorded only one pullback over -0.7% since May 6^th and only one day down -1% since April 21st. Strength has been broad, but the bulk of the gains have come in technology and consumer discretionary since the April lows after tariff news sunk markets initially. Today saw another slow steady stock market climb off morning lows, in another “buy the dip” moment for investors that have seen a stream of positive data points (back-to-back cooler inflation readings in CPI, PPI) and upbeat commentary on the global trade front between China and the US. Stocks weren’t spooked by geopolitical concerns after reports Israel is considering taking military action against Iran in the coming days, according to reports. In stock news, ORCL strength following earnings and guidance helped boost software and AI related plays following its capex boost while BA shares slid following an accident in India. Still, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to erase losses despite the BA weakness, ending higher. Following today’s economic data, traders see 80% chance of a Sept Fed rate cut, with a second rate cut as soon as Oct, vs Dec as seen before data. One of the stories that was flying under the radar, a massive internet outage has hit the US, knocking dozens of popular websites offline. According to Downdetector, Google, YouTube, Etsy, Spotify and many others went down around 1pm ET.

In an interesting stat: Bloomberg reported a gauge of insider sentiment, which tracks the numbers of buyers versus sellers, shows that 200 insiders bought shares this month through June 11, while 778 sold shares, according to data compiled by the Washington Service. That puts the buy to sell ratio at around 0.26, the lowest since November when Trump’s reelection triggered a month-long rally. The S&P 500 is trading at 22 times projected profits in the next 12 months, some 18% above its long-term average, data compiled by Bloomberg show. https://tinyurl.com/edmz32e7

In Weekly sentiment data: 1) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index reading little changed to 82.66, rising from last week’s 81.62 – recent peak of 88.41 from 5-28 – recent trough from 4-17 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q1) of 72.50; 2) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +3.1 vs -8.7 last week. Bulls higher to 36.7% from 32.7%, Neutrals rise to 29.7% from 25.9%, Bears fall to 33.6% from 41.4%.

Wells Fargo analysts warned Thursday that the recent S&P 500 rebound may be fragile due to narrow rally breadth. Fewer than 50% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average, and only 56% are above their 20-day MA—suggesting limited participation. Despite this, Wells Fargo remains cautiously optimistic, advising investors to use market pullbacks to add exposure, especially in sectors like Energy, Tech, Communication Services, Financials, and Utilities. These are favored for their strong balance sheets, steady earnings, and growth potential.

• Weekly Jobless Claims unchanged at 248,000, above the consensus 240,000; the 4-week moving average climbed to 240,250 from 235,250 prior week; continued claims climbed to 1.956M from 1.902M prior week and the U.S. insured unemployment rate climbed to 1.3% from 1.2% prior week.

• The 10-year Treasury yield fell to lows below 4.35%, down over 5-bps while the two-year was at 3.88%, also down 6-bps before paring losses. Bond markets breathed a sigh of relief following its final Treasury auction of the week, all going off fairly well as today the U.S. Treasury sold $22B in 30year notes at a yield of 4.844% vs. 4.859% when issued prior with the bid to cover as 2.43 vs. 2.31 prior auction as indirects take 65.16%, directs 23.42%, dealers 11.41%.
• Oil prices pullback from 8-week highs, as WTI crude oil futures slipped -$0.11 or 0.16% to settle at $68.04 per barrel (off highs $69.29) while Brent fell -$0.41 or 0.59% to settle at $69.36 per barrel (off highs of $70.25). Prices rose on Wednesday after the U.S. ordered some staff to leave its embassy in Baghdad, officials said, after Iran threatened to strike American assets in the Middle East in the event that it’s attacked over its nuclear program.

• In the Food/Food Processing Sector: CVGW shares jumped after saying it received an unsolicited takeover proposal to acquire all its outstanding shares for $32 each in a deal valued at about $570M last night. https://tinyurl.com/39jwntb7 ; CAG was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Goldman Sachs and cut its tgt to $20 from $27 saying detailed cost of goods estimates for the next 12 months shows protein inflation for chicken, beef and pork is set to be a meaningful headwind to earnings growth.
• In Autos: DAN said it will sell its Off-Highway business to ALSN for $2.7B; MOD initiated at Overweight and $125 tgt at Keybanc saying they view it as a highly compelling LT transformation story driven by a rigorous approach to 80/20, better positioning the business around higher growth/margin end markets; XPEV has developed chips for autonomous driving and is working to integrate it into select car models Volkswagen planned to launch in China next year, the Financial Times reported citing an interview with CEO.

• In Aerospace & Defense: BA shares fell after an Air India flight with 242 passengers crashed shortly after take-off from Ahmedabad, as the Boeing 787 aircraft was traveling to London’s Gatwick airport (parts makers GE, SPR fall in reaction); CACI gets 7-yr task order, including 1 base period, 6 option periods, with estimated ceiling of $437M for support to U.S. Africa Command’s Mission; JOBY was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Cantor; OSK received a contract modification worth $792.4 million for work it will do for the U.S. Army. The contract, for Oshkosh’s Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles A2, will be extended by three years.

• In Crypto: Bitcoin prices slip to lows -1.8% under $107,000; in research, WULF tgt was raised from $4.50 to $6 at Rosenblatt and maintained Buy after hosting CEO and Director of Investor Relations, coming away more optimistic about the company’s positioning and bullish about the near-term prospects; WULF is one of only a few Bitcoin miners that has signed an HPC hosting deal and should start generating revenue this quarter. COIN unveils an AXP-powered credit card offering up to 4% in BTC rewards
• In Financial Services: Piper said RDDT users declined m/m for the third straight time in May, while CPCs and CPMs remain choppy. Positively, Piper’s PINS Performance+ campaign data is now showing performance improvements vs its standard campaign. SEZL shares jumped after being initiated at Outperform and $168 tgt at Oppenheimer saying its proprietary underwriting process stands out, given its behavior-based risk assessment and ability to adjust credit limits within contracts, instead of denying loans.

• BNTX agreed to acquire CVAC, a clinical-stage biotech company developing a novel class of transformative medicines in oncology and infectious diseases based on messenger ribonucleic acid. Under the terms of the agreement, each CureVac share will be exchanged for about $5.46 in a deal valued at $1.25B.
• INSM prices a public stock offering of 7.8M shares at $96.00 per share.
• KURA reported positive updated clinical data from a Phase 1a/1b trial of ziftomenib, a highly selective oral investigational menin inhibitor.
• MRNA said it is looking for partners to conduct late-stage studies on its experimental vaccines targeting Epstein-Barr virus, varicella zoster virus and genital herpes, the company said at an industry conference.
• NRIX said it remains on track to initiate pivotal trials of Bexobrutideg in 2025.
• TNXP files for a mixed shelf offering of up to $500M, sending shares lower.
• In Medical Equipment: SLP shares slipped after guiding prelim Q3 revs $19M-$20M, more than 14% below the consensus of $22.8M at midpoint and lowered its FY25 revenue guidance by ~15% from $90M-$93M to $76M-$80M stating that market uncertainties surrounding future funding, drug pricing, and potential tariffs are creating significant headwinds for both its pharmaceutical and biotech clients.

• In Media: NMAX announced that Newsmax+, Newsmax’s streaming service via its subscription app, is now available on Comcast’s entertainment devices across the U.S., including Xfinity X1, Xfinity Flex, Xumo Stream Box, and Xumo TV. Newsmax+ is offered with a free trial and retails for $4.99 per month ($49.99/year). The FTC is considering restrictions on OMC and IPG to prevent the merged company from refusing to place ads on platforms for political reasons

• In Electronic Equipment and Parts: AAOI shares rose after saying it had made the first volume shipment of high-speed data-center transceivers to a recently re-engaged major hyperscale data-center customer; said the shipment was the first of a significant quantity to this customer in several years. NET shares tumbled after reporting intermittent errors across the impacted services as systems handle retried and caches are filled.
• In Semiconductors: continued strength in the semi sector as the SOX rises again, holding above 5,250 most of the day amid renewed investment in the AI space the last 2-months; MU said it will invest $200B in American manufacturing with new plants in Idaho and New York. The new investment is expected to create +90K jobs.
• In the EDA Sector: CDNS shares made it a 10^th straight day of gains after having fallen on 5/28 more than -10% (along with SNPS) on reports the U.S. was reviewing exports of strategic significance to China and has suspended some export licenses while review takes place. SNPS shares remained weak today after reports earlier by Reuters it has restarted some China services, though sales of core tools still blocked.