Closing Recap

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

US equity futures gained overnight following an Israel/Iran ceasefire announcement, despite what appeared to be an almost-immediate violation of the ceasefire. With no particularly impactful earnings or pre-market economic data, equities were free to hold gains into the open as investors played the wait-and-see game with Israel/Iran. Meanwhile, today’s Fear & Greed Index rose to 58/100 (Greed) from 54 (Neutral) last week but is down slightly versus last month’s 63 (Greed). Mid-morning breadth favored advancers by almost 4:1 as small caps outperformed in a broad rally with IWM (+1.20%) versus SPY (+0.81%) and QQQ (+1.15%). Technology (+1.52%), Financials (+1.23%) and Communications (+0.90%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Real Estate (+0.26%), Consumer Staples (-0.29%) and Energy (-0.35%) led the underperformers with only Consumer Staples and Energy in the red.

In noteworthy data today, @MikeZaccardi noted the Conference Board Expectations Index dipped to 69.0, remaining below the 80-level which, “typically signals a recession ahead.” That said, as noted below, the confidence spread remained solid at 60.1, atypical for a recession. On home prices, @EPBResearch noted the decline in home prices is broadening with roughly 35% of cities experiencing negative home price growth. In contrast, @charliebilello noted the median monthly rent for a two-bedroom apartment in NYC has jumped 17.5% year/year to a record $5,560. Lastly, on employment, @GlobalMktObserv noted the KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index dipped in May to the lowest since April 2021 and has been a leading indicator for unemployment.

Heading into the final hour of trading, US equities held strong gains despite Powell’s earlier testimony pushing expectations of a rate cut more firmly out to September from July. Breadth was similar to the morning reading, favoring advancers by 3.7:1 as strength was evident across cap levels with IWM (+1.32%) versus SPY (+1.22%) and QQQ (+1.66%). Sector performance also was similar to morning data with Technology (+1.92%), Financials (+1.66%) and Communications (+1.39%) outperforming while Utilities (+0.57%), Consumer Staples (-0.07%) and Energy (-1.53%) underperformed. Both growth and value enjoyed solid gains in the broad, risk-on rally with growth the outperformer (Russell 1000 Growth +1.59% vs Russell 1000 Value +0.88%).

• US House Price Index M/M for April -0.4% vs forecast -0.1% and prior -0.1%.
• CaseShiller 20-city for April +3.4% vs forecast 3.94% and prior 4.1%.
• Consumer Confidence for June 93 vs forecast 99.8 and prior 98.0. Confidence spread remained strong at 60.1 in June versus 61.9 in May.
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing for June -7 vs forecast -10 and prior -9.

• With a ceasefire back on between Israel and Iran, oil was unhindered to the downside as traders unwound bets on short supply from a longer conflict. Though nothing is certain, supply fears currently appear overblown. August WTI added to yesterday’s decline, settling lower by $4.14/bbl, or -6.04%, at $64.37. Brent similarly rolled by $4.34/bbl, or -6.07%, to settle at $67.14.

• French investigators order TSLA to stop ‘deceptive business practices’ per Reuters.
• F recalls 133,000 Lincoln Aviators over risk of detaching parts.

• Amazon (AMZN) said they would invest $54B in Britain over next three years.
• DNUT and MCD announce joint decision to end partnership due to high costs.
• AMZN to bring prime delivery speeds as fast as the same day to thousands of smaller cities, towns, and rural communities across the U.S. for the first time; to invest +$4B to triple delivery network by 2026.
• WWW launches first boot in new assortment of USA-built boots with Workshop Wedge.
• TGT is exploring shipping service similar to Temu or Shein per Bloomberg.

• CCL shares rose after reporting earnings: Q2 Adj. EPS $0.35 Beat $0.24 Est. and Sales $6.328B Beat $6.207B. CEO says conflict in Middle East has not yet had any discernible impact on business.

•  PSX CEO notes focusing on opportunities to enhance margins, increase yields for refining at JPM Conference.
• DUK to operate some plants at maximum as U.S. declares power emergency in Southeast.
• EOG expects to close Encino acquisition deal in Q3 per JPM Conf.
• CTRA to hold Permian rig count steady, CEO says, reversing planned reduction.

• Cleanspark (CLSK) announced it has achieved its mid-year target of 50 exahashes per second (EH/s) of operational hashrate, a measure of computing power dedicated to mining Bitcoin.

• Wall Street firms emerge as top bidders for insurer BHF; TPG and Aquarian Holdings both submitted offers at a small premium to Brighthouse’s market value in the final round of bidding earlier this month, according to people briefed on the matter per FT.

• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) entered into a $2B flexible funding agreement with Royalty Pharma to support global development and commercialization of ras(on) inhibitor portfolio for patients with ras-addicted cancers.
• Amarin (AMRN) shares jumped over 30% after announcing exclusive license and supply agreement with Recordation to commercialize vazkepa® (icosapent ethyl) in Europe; to receive $25M upfront, up to $150M in milestones.
• Krystal Biotech (KRYS) announced first patient dosed in phase 3 clinical trial of kb803 for the treatment and prevention of corneal abrasions in patients with dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa.
• AZN’s daresay® approved in the US for patients with previously treated advanced egfr-mutated non-small cell lung cancer.
• NKTR shares soared close to +150% in mid-afternoon following its announcement: Rezolve-ad phase 2B study of rezpegaldesleukin meets primary and key secondary endpoints in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis; achieved statistical significance on primary endpoint at week 16.
• BMRN presented a five-year phase 3 results reinforcing long-term efficacy and safety of Octavian® (valoctocogene roxaparvovec-rvox) at international society on thrombosis and haemostasis 2025 Congress.
• CAPR shares rose after providing regulatory update on deramiocel BLA for duchenne muscular dystrophy.
• SLNO shares moved higher after M&A chatter hub Betaville mentioned as M&A target.
• KalVista Pharmaceuticals (KALV) falls after FDA chief said to have sought rejection of drug.

• Spirit Airlines notes proposed joint venture agreement between JBLU and UAL is anticompetitive and should be rejected.

• PSN & IBM announce collaboration for new air traffic control system; Parsons to be prime contractor for air traffic control system.
• RTX‘s Raytheon awarded $250M contract from Melco for essm block 2 licensed production.
• EADSY says NATO orders two additional Airbus A330 MRTT aircraft and welcomes Sweden and Denmark to multinational fleet.
• EU retaliatory tariffs on US imports could include BA aircraft per Bloomberg.

• ISS recommends PARA shareholders vote against reelection of 4 directors, including Shari Redstone.
• Nielsen says WBD saw biggest gains for TV viewing in May; YouTube leads in market share

• ARRY shares fell after announcing a proposed private offering of $250M of new convertible senior notes.
• MSFT will conduct another round of major layoffs in its Xbox division next week per Bloomberg.
• The Information reported that OpenAI quietly designed a rival to Google Workspace (GOOGL), Microsoft Office (MSFT).
• HPE unveils new AI factory solutions built with NVDA to accelerate AI adoption at global scale.

• TSM The foundry market grew revenue 13% in Q1, aided by AI chip demand per Counterpoint.
• Ambarella (AMBA) shares jumped close to +20% after Bloomberg reported the co. was working with bankers to explore potential sale.