Closing Recap

Friday, November 29, 2024

U.S. stocks advanced in a slow market melt up all morning, as the S&P and Dow Industrials touched new all-time highs again with the S&P rising 8 of the last 9 trading days closing out a strong November. US equity futures rose on Friday, setting the S&P 500 up for its best month since February (after falling in October) as trading resumed for a half day after the Thanksgiving holiday, while the Dow topped 45,000 a second day, but failed to close above. The Smallcap Russell 2000 was up over 11% in November, its best monthly return since last December. All eleven S&P sectors finished higher in November, with the biggest gains coming from Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +12.9% (thanks to TSLA), Financials (XLF) +10.46%, Industrials (XLI) +7.6%, Energy (XLE) +7.8% and Technology (XLK) +5.1% – Healthcare (XLV) is about flat and Materials (XLV) up only 1.5%. Today saw lots of recent momentum names moving forward such as nuclear/uranium names (SMR, OKLO, VST, NRG) space/drone names (ACHR, ASTS, JOBY, LUNR, RKLB, UAVS), and crypto as Bitcoin approached $100,000 again (MARA, IREN, WULF, MSTR). The 10-year Treasury pulled back to its lowest level since Oct. 30 around 4.2% and the 2-year hit its lowest level since Nov. 8 (4.18%) while the dollar slipped, and Bitcoin again approached $100,000. REITs were sector laggards with big gains in technology today. Next week economic data focus turns back to jobs, with JOLTS data on Tuesday 12/3, ADP Payrolls on Wednesday 12/4, Jobless Claims on Thursday 12/5, and the Nonfarm payrolls on Friday 12/6. Massive rally for November after October declines as the Russell 2000 gained +11.2%, the S&P 500 +5.74%, the Down +7.55% and the Nasdaq gained +6.21% this month extending YTD advances. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.06%, the Nasdaq climbed 1.13%, and the Dow climbed 1.4%

• Gold prices advanced amid a weaker US dollar but posted its worst monthly performance since September 2023, down about -3% in November. Gold prices are down following a rally on Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory, on rising expectations of tariffs impacting rates.
• The dollar index fell to its lowest point since Nov. 12 but remains on track for a 2% rise in November. The buck posted its first down week since September, extending losses today by the yen move, jumping on expectations the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would raise short-term interest rates from the current 0.25% at its next policy meeting in December following hotter Japanese CPI inflation data overnight.
• Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes food costs, rose 2.2% in November from a year earlier, exceeding a median market forecast for a 2.1% gain and accelerating from a 1.8% increase in October.
• The euro capped its worst month in over a year amid concerns about growth. France’s fiscal woes aren’t helping as far-right leader Marine Le Pen gives Prime Minister Michel Barnier until Monday to accede to her budget demands.
• U.S. Treasury yields dropped amid thin trading during the holiday-shortened market session on Friday, extending a weekly bond rally spurred by optimism about the new U.S. Treasury secretary and some respite from inflation concerns. Benchmark 10-year yields dipped to a month low. This week’s rally began after Trump named Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary last Friday and gained momentum following positive bond auctions.

• Brazilian related stocks (MELI, NU, XP, PAGS, STNE others in Fintech) saw weakness after Brazil Finance Minister Fernando Haddad unveiled a long-sought plan to cut 70 billion reais ($11.8 billion) from public spending through 2026 as investors’ fiscal concerns sink assets from the currency to stocks. The weakness carried over to non-financial names as well with PBR, VALE, MELI also weak.
• In Solar (FSLR, SEDG, ENPH, ARRY, JKS, CSIQ), Reuters reported the U.S. Commerce Dept sets preliminary antidumping tariff rates solar cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam rate of 125.37% on solar cells from Cambodia -commerce statement (CSIQ, JKS fell on news, FSLR advanced).
• Large cap banks having a stellar 2024, as coming into the day, some of the biggest large caps with more than 36% YTD positive returns with WFC +56.87% YTD, GS +56.94%, JPM +46.85%, MS +40.7%, BAC +41.88% and C +36.3%.
• APLT shares tumbled after saying the FDA declined to approve APLT’s drug to treat galactosemia, a rare genetic metabolic disease citing deficiencies in the clinical application for the drug.
• ASML, KLAC, LRCX among semiconductor chip stocks rallying early on reports that the U.S. has announced softer-than-expected chip export restrictions on China
• AZN said yesterday its breast cancer drug Enhertu will be added to China’s state-run health insurance scheme from Jan. 1, according to an update from the National Healthcare Security Administration.
• BAESY was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral; cut PT to GBP 1,240 from GBP 1,375 at Bank America saying the creation of President-elect Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) adds uncertainty, weighing on BAE’s valuation and believes the co will deliver among the lowest margin expansion in the sector.
• MBUU said President Ritchie Anderson will retire effective February 7 and CEO Steve Menneto will take over.
• META plans to build a $10B subsea cable spanning the world, Tech Crunch confirmed saying Meta plans to build a new, major, fibre-optic subsea cable extending around the world — a 40,000+ kilometer project that could total more than $10 billion of investment.
• NFLX moved back above $890, rising for the 8th time in 9 days following the Tyson/Paul boxing match 2 weeks ago, with their first NFL streaming for Christmas Day in a 3-seasn deal and the debut of WWE "Monday night RAW" wrestling in 2024 – as sports making an impact.
• SMCI shares tumbled as an outlier in generally strong Semiconductor space as the SOX index rose over 2%; the SMH advanced over 2% moving back to its 100dma resistance of $243.65 after testing its 200dma support earlier this week around $238.
• VYGR was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush and raised tgt to $11 from $7 as they added the company’s tau antibody for Alzheimer’s disease program and the AAV-mediated siRNA program for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis caused by mutations in the SOD1 gene into its valuation.