Mid-Morning Look: February 05, 2021

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, February 05, 2021

Index

Up/Down

%

Last

 

DJ Industrials

149.10

0.48%

31,204

S&P 500

13.37

0.35%

3,885

Nasdaq

13.31

0.10%

13,790

Russell 2000

11.02

0.51%

2,213

 

 

The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and SmallCap Russell 2000 all open at fresh new record highs, as major averages in the U.S. look to post its best weekly return in 3-months – as the rally driven by longstanding buy-the-dip mentality coming out of prior week selloff along with strong earnings, data, and stimulus hopes. This morning, monthly job payroll data for January was mostly in line with estimates (though prior month revised lower), though unemployment edged higher. Overnight, the Senate voted 51-50, after Kamala Harris broke her first tie, to adopt a budget blueprint for Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus after amendments from both parties. The House had already adopted its budget resolution but may have to vote again today to agree on the Senate’s language. In vaccine news, JNJ submitted its vaccine candidate to the FDA for emergency use authorization with a meeting scheduled for 26-Feb. Broad sector gains this for major averages, but biggest sector winners include energy, financials, communications services, tech, and consumer discretionary all up over 5% into the final day of trading. Nothing seems to phase this market so far as volatility has fallen off a cliff after jumping last week, but biggest risks seem to revolve around upward pressure on rates (Treasury yields hit one-year highs), new virus mutations, a resurgence of the dollar (3-month highs) and continued pockets of market exuberance (after the recent short interest “meme” squeeze and Bitcoin speculation). Oil prices extend weekly gains to fresh 1-year highs, gold rebounds back above $1,800 and the dollar slips.

 

Economic Data

·     Nonfarm payrolls for January rose +49K vs. +50K consensus, while prior month revised to -227K from -140K; private payrolls rose +6K below the 50K est. (prior revised to -204K from -95K) and manufacturing jobs fell -10K vs. est. +30K (prior month revised to -23k from -45K); the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3% vs. 6.7% consensus and prior as labor participation rate to 61.4% from 61.5% prior; average hourly earnings rose 0.2% vs. est. 0.3%

·     December Trade in Goods and Services reported at (-$66.6B) vs. (-$65.80B) consensus and (-$69.0B) prior as exports were $190.0B and Imports $256.6B

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

 

WTI Crude

0.72

56.96

Brent

0.70

59.54

Gold

15.50

1,806.70

EUR/USD

0.0059

1.2021

JPY/USD

-0.06

105.46

10-Year Note

0.014

1.153%

 

 

Sector Movers Today

·     Auto sector; Ford (F) posted a sizable EPS beat of 34c vs. est. 7c while increases commitments to invest in growth to more than $22B in EVs, $7B in AVs; Lucid Motors CEO said he can neither confirm nor deny speculation about going public through a SPAC deal with CCIV, he said in CNBC interview with David Faber; SBE, the acquirer of ChargePoint (CHPT, pending) at Buy with a $46 target at Roth saying ChargePoint’s 73% share in networked Level 2 EV charging stations is a good indictor the company should remain a long-term leader in the rapidly expanding EV charging infrastructure market; Lakestreet raising PT to $19 on HYRE following the Amer Drive car supply partnership and 25.9M capital raise which priced yesterday

·     Pharma movers; JNJ applied to the FDA for emergency use authorization for its single-shot COVID-19 vaccine; PFE withdrew its an application in India for emergency use of the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with BNTX Reuters reported; TWST was downgraded to underweight at JPMorgan saying they are hard-pressed to handicap the 61.6x calendar 2022 sales valuation, which is now ~2x more expensive than comparable high-growth NGS peers such as TXG (27.9x), GH (29.3x) and ADPT (32.7x); NBIX reported 4Q20 revenue of ~$248M with ~$240M attributable to net INGREZZA sales, below consensus estimates (~$260M); CGC downgraded at Piper

·     Biotech movers; PTCT announced results from its US Study-045 yesterday after the close, failing to demonstrate a statistically significant improvement in dystrophin expression; TTOO shares rose after the company said its T2SARS-CoV-2 Panel can detect the Brazil variant of the SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for Covid-19 infections; in earnings, REGN rises on Q4 EPS beat ($9.53 vs. est. $8.39) as Eylea US net sales +10% to $1.34B; GILD reported 4Q20 revenues of $7.3B vs. est. $7.1B, primarily driven by Veklury ($1.9B vs. est. $1.2B) and also provided first-time 2021 guidance for product sales of $23.7B-$25.1B

·     Software movers; Unity Software (U) shares slide despite a smaller-than-expected loss and better revs as said expects a ~3% revenue hit from Apple’s new IDFA policy, which weighed; NLOK reported strong F3Q results, growing the installed base and overachieving on revenue / EPS, while F4Q was guided above Street estimates (even excluding Avira contribution); PLTR and BP have extended their partnership to support BP as it works towards its ambition to become a net zero company by 2050 or sooner; NEWR downgraded by two analysts on lower revenue build visibility and a now more balanced risk/reward following inline F3Q results (vs. a positive pre-announcement) but a softer-than-expected F4Q outlook (ARR flat q/q); PCTY posted another solid quarter, beating expectations as strong net-new business offset lackluster employment growth within the installed base, but March quarter guidance was modestly below expectations as management forecasted a $3.5-$4M headwind; ZEN reported better-than-expected 4Q20 results with non-GAAP EPS of $0.11 (consensus $0.15), revenue of $284M (consensus $278M), a deceleration to 23% growth from 24% last quarter, and RPO of $925M, which came in above our estimates of $679M, an acceleration to 44% growth

 

Stock GAINERS

·     ATVI +10%; delivered a strong F4Q20 and better than consensus F1Q21 and FY21 guidance, amplifying a structural lift from their Call of Duty franchise

·     EL +7%; reports surprise rise in Q2 sales ($4.85B vs. est. $4.49B), benefiting from strong demand for its premium skin-care products in China along with big EPS beat ($2.61 vs. $1.69); also says plans to resume share buybacks in 2H’21

·     NBLX +6%; as CVX said it made a nonbinding proposal to acquire the rest of the midstream infrastructure company in a stock swap (already owns roughly 62.5%), as offered to exchange $12.47 of stock for each remaining unit https://on.mktw.net/3jhyf4k

·     NWSA +8%; said Q2 was the most profitable quarter since the company’s reorganization seven-plus years ago; net income rose to $261 million from $103 million in Q2

·     PINS +5%; grew revenue +76% y/y in 4Q, topping Street forecasts by more than 9%, while the company also eclipsed a 42% adj. EBITDA margin during the quarter as shares rose early

·     SYNA +15%; reported solid results and raised guidance as strength in IoT and PC NB more than offset softness associated with the iPhone 12 Mini as per KeyBanc

·     TDC +33%; after Q4 EPS of 38c topped the 25c view on better revs $$91M vs. $475M) and said Q4 recurring revenue rose 9% to $383M (guides Q1 38c-40c vs. 33c estimate)

·     TTOO +24%; after the company said its T2SARS-CoV-2 Panel can detect the Brazil variant of the SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for Covid-19 infections

·     WYNN +9%; reported Q4 ad EPS loss ($2.45) vs est. loss ($2.31) on revs $686M vs est. $722.3M, which was a 58.5% YoY decline, including a 65.4% decrease in rev from Macau and a 53.2% decrease in Las Vegas rev, though Bernstein notes that January and forward bookings are showing improvement

 

Stock LAGGARDS

·     CLOV -3%; got letter from SEC indicating it is conducting investigation, requesting document, data preservation from Jan 1, 2020, to present; SEC letter relates to certain matters that are referenced in Hindenburg research article on Feb. 4, 2021

·     GPRO -13%; shares slide after Q4 revs dip ~32% to $357.8M, missing the $373.6M consensus estimate while guided next quarter above views for EPS and revs

·     NEWR -16%; downgraded by two analysts on lower revenue build visibility and a now more balanced risk/reward following inline F3Q results (vs. a positive pre-announcement) but a softer-than-expected F4Q outlook (ARR flat q/q)

·     PTON -8%; Q2 sales, earnings and subscribers beat expectations as revs rose 128% to $1,065M, and Connected Fitness subscribers was 1.667M, up 134% YoY, but forecast Q3 core earnings below estimates

·     SPRO -20%; as FDA placed a clinical hold on its mid-stage clinical trial of SPR720, its oral antimicrobial therapy being tested in patients with a type of lung disease

·     U -10%; slide despite a smaller-than-expected loss and better revs as said expects a ~3% revenue hit from Apple’s new IDFA policy, which weighed

·     VXRT -14%; falls a 3rd day following disappointing covid-19 vaccine results on Wed

 

Syndicate:

·     Angion Biomedica (ANGN) 5M share IPO priced at $16.00

·     Bolt Biotherapeutics (BOLT) 11.5M share IPO priced at $20.00

·     CN Energy (CNEY) 5M share IPO priced at $4.00

·     Document Security (DSS) 12.3M share Secondary priced at $2.80

·     Evaxion Biotech (EVAX) 3M share IPO priced at $10.00

·     Immunocore (IMCR) 9.936M share IPO priced at $26.00

·     Itamar Medical (ITMR) 3M share Spot Secondary priced at $22.75

·     Janus Henderson Group (JHG) 30.7M share Secondary priced at $29.25

·     Lucira Health (LHDX) 9M share IPO priced at $17.00

·     Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) 12.5M share Secondary priced at $9.75

·     Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) 28M share Secondary priced at $27.00

·     Pharvaris (PHVS) 8.27M share IPO priced at $20.00

·     Rekor Systems (REKR) 5.33M share Spot Secondary priced at $12.25

·     Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (RYTM) 5M share Secondary priced at $30.00

·     Signature Bank (SBNY) 3.5M share Spot Secondary priced at $178.00

·     Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) 7.5M share IPO priced at $17.00

·     Veracyte (VCYT) 7.432M share Secondary priced at $74.00

·     Vor Biopharma (VOR) 9.83M share IPO priced at $18.00

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.