Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, February 08, 2024

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	-15.84	0.04%	38,661
S&P 500	-2.07	0.04%	4,992
Nasdaq	16.19	0.10%	15,773
Russell 2000	13.73	0.70%	1,964

 

 

U.S. stock futures were slightly weaker overnight, but as remains the case for months, weakness was bought as stocks bounce on the open. It was another round of record highs yesterday (led by large cap tech/momentum) as the S&P 500 cash (SPX) came with a whisker of 5,000 (4,999.89), holding just shy of those levels, as macro news is quiet to start outside of several big earnings related movers (see below). Treasury yields edge higher ahead of $25 billion 30-year auction at 1:00 PM this afternoon, which follows a well-received 3-yr auction on Tuesday and a strong 10-yr auction ($42B was highest offering ever) on Wednesday. Data released this morning showed that initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 218,000 in the first week of February, below the 220,000 that had been expected, giving a small boost to treasury yields initially (10-yr to 4.15%). Overnight, China inflation data came in lower than expectations, while in Japan, BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida made dovish comments. The Smallcap Rusell 2000 playing catch up today, outperforming while the Nasdaq gets yet another boost from semis (SOX) as ARM surges over 50% on earnings/AI commentary. Major averages currently mixed, but not far over yesterday closing levels as momentum remains to the upside still, while oil rises and the dollar edges higher. Dow component DIS outperforms up 10% after earnings and announcements while PYPL falls -10% in its guide.

• Wholesale inventories for December unrevised at +0.4% vs. consensus +0.4% while Wholesale sales +0.7% vs. consensus +0.2% and vs Nov -0.1%; U.S. Dec stock/sales ratio 1.34 months’ worth vs Nov 1.34 months.

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	1.63	75.49
Brent	1.73	80.94
Gold	-7.50	2,044.20
EUR/USD	-0.001	1.0761
JPY/USD	1.16	149.34
10-Year Note	0.058	4.156%

 

• In Payments/FinTech: PYPL disappoints as shares tumbles following better-than-expected Q4 earnings but guided 2024 adj EPS to roughly in line with profit of $5.10 in 2023, well below the consensus of $5.51. AXP was downgraded at Morgan Stanley on valuation as lots of good news “baked in;” DFS upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley and raise tgt to $133 calling the company a more pure-play consumer credit exposure with a robust near-term catalyst path. Notes DFS’s credit performance has lagged peers over the past few quarters, with card DQ & NCO rates now 48%/43% above 2019 vs peers at 9%/12%. FLT shares tumbled on lower outlook after results.
• In Consumer Goods: UL announced a $1.6B buyback after volumes increased as full-year operating profit rose 2.6% to 9.9 billion euros and its underlying operating margin was up 60-bps but missed analyst expectations for operating profit of 10.4 billion euros and a margin of 16.9%. KVUE Q4 sales $3.67B missed the $3.78B estimate, missing in both its self-care as well as skin health and beauty segments and lowered its year profit outlook ($1.10-$1.20 vs. $1.26). COTY FQ2 adj. EBITDA beats $366m vs. St $358m but guide reaffirmed and implies 2H slowdown.

 

• ARM +55%; reported stronger-than-expected FYQ3 results and FYQ4 guidance as royalty growth is forecast to accelerate due to a faster transition to devices using V9 architecture, which has double the royalty rates of V8.
• CFLT +29%; after as delivered 24% rev growth vs Street at 22% & maintained FY24 guide of +22% but off a larger base and Cloud grew 46%, the biggest upside in 7 qtrs. as consumption from digital natives stabilized.
• DIS +10%; reported Q1 results were well ahead (EBIT 12%/EPS 25% better vs street), driven by near breakeven profits at DTC & record parks performance and now expects 20%+ EPS growth in F24 to $4.60 vs. est. $4.20 and announced boosts cash dividend 50% and targets $3B buyback in FY24.
• FHTX +21%; after LLY said they will conduct clinical trials of one of the company’s cancer treatment candidates (FHD-909 oral medicine) under the companies’ joint-venture arrangement.
• MPWR +15%; as delivered modest upside to Q4, and guided Q1 more solidly above consensus just as its inventories are below the long term target; Enterprise Data (ED) continues to lead, reflecting 48V AI server demand.
• OSCR +25%; posted a better-than-expected loss in Q4 (-$0.66 vs. est. -$0.72) and adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2024 (adj EBITDA loss ($11.6M) vs ($122.9M) estimate) on in-line revs $1.43B.
• RL +13%; after profit jumps above expectations, amid strength internationally (Q4 North American revenue about flat while Europe revenue rose 11% and Asia revenue increased 16%).
• VKTX +14%; trades new all-time highs in Pharma space after earnings results.

 

• AZN -5%; as Q4 core earnings per share were below consensus expectations due to higher costs, including investment in research and development, and lower-margin sales.
• BWA -6%; forecasts FY24 revenue between $14.4B-$14.9B, below ests $15.31B and EPS view to $3.65-$4.00 (below $4.27 est.) and Q4 EPS miss ($0.90 vs. $0.94).
• FLT -6%; as results for Q4 miss and guided Q1 and year below views.
• NVST -9%; mixed Q423 as revenue beat while EPS missed consensus but provided 2024 guidance for EBITDA margin (16-17%) that was significantly below consensus of 18%+ despite its core revenue outlook in-line.
• PYPL -10%; following better-than-expected Q4 earnings but guided 2024 adj EPS to roughly in line with profit of $5.10 in 2023, well below the consensus of $5.51.
• QLYS -6%; reported $144.6M and $1.43 compared to street expectations for $145.1M and $1.24, but shares dip as guided FY24 to $600-$610M and $4.95-$5.27 below consensus estimates for $617.2M and $5.32.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.