Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	-140.93	0.36%	38,833
S&P 500	-12.88	0.25%	5,065
Nasdaq	-89.51	0.56%	15,945
Russell 2000	-5.40	0.26%	2,050

 

 

U.S. stocks are pulling back after gains on Tuesday, but still holding near same levels most of the week (S&P 500 around 5,065) as markets took a slightly weaker Q4 GDP reading and an uptick in Q4 PCE/Core PCE inflation data in stride, opting to get a fresher and more up to date PCE reading tomorrow morning in the January figures along with personal income/spending and weekly jobless claim. Healthcare, Technology, and Communications are the biggest drags in the S&P 500 early, all down over -0.6%, while biggest gains are in Energy, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary. The big story for the last two days while markets await the PCE inflation data is the continued 2024 surge in Bitcoin (up 45% YTD) and crypto prices, rising over 6% today and topping $61K for the first time since late 2021 on more upside momentum. The new FOMO in crypto has replaced the “AI” momentum trade in recent days with semis (SOX) pulling back after a massive run last week on better NVDA results and guidance boosted the index to record highs. Several Fed speakers later today, but markets remain choppy awaiting the key inflation data tomorrow as the dollar bounced and Treasury yields little changed.

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	0.33	79.20
Brent	0.50	84.15
Gold	-3.10	2,041
EUR/USD	-0.0011	1.0834
JPY/USD	0.23	150.71
10-Year Note	-0.024	4.291%

 

• In REITs: GNL reported 4Q23 AFFO of $0.31/share, which missed consensus by ~22% and provided FY24 AFFO guidance, which was 18% below consensus at the midpoint; GMRE FFO missed expectations by $0.03/share, or nearly 14%, which includes the unexpected impact from a $1.1M tenant reserve on a tenant in NJ; GLPI reported a $0.01/share 4Q23 AFFO beat vs. consensus, though management issued initial FY24 AFFO guidance that fell shy of consensus by $0.03/share at the midpoint; EXR reported a slight 4Q23 miss, with performance in the quarter mostly in line with expectations, but issued initial FY24 Core FFO guidance that was ~4% below consensus.
• In Food & Beverages: SAM shares slump on quarterly miss as reported softer volumes, margins, and EPS with margin headwinds into 2024; Q4 revs $393.7M vs. est. $413.8M; Q4 Depletions decreased 9%; shipments decreased 12.2%. COCO beats Q4 sales and profit expectations on higher pricing and strong demand for its products like Vita Coco coconut water (sales rose 15% to $106M topping est. $99.6M), but guidance for sales was below views. BYND shares jumped after mixed results/guidance as Q4 revs of $73.7M were 10.0% above consensus estimates but down -7.8% YoY, and guidance implies flat to negative sales growth and a mid-teens gross margin. BROS priced an 8M share secondary offering at $29.05 per share.
• In Autos: Auto retail: AAP Q4 EPS loss (-$0.59) vs. est. +$0.23 on inline revs of $2.46B; but shares rise after guiding FY24 EPS $3.75-$4.25 above consensus $3.57, but lighter revs $11.3B-$11.4B vs. est. $11.46B; posted Q4 comp sales -1.4% vs. est. -1.1% (follows good results from AZO Tuesday). In Auto Technology: LAZR reported Q4 FY23 revenue/non-GAAP EPS that missed estimates, as the company saw lower than anticipated sensor sales in adjacent markets and slower revenue recognition for a development contract. In Auto Suppliers: AXL was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at UBS saying their downgrade two things have changed.

 

• AMBA +2%; reported Q4 FY24 revenue that was in-line with estimates, while EPS higher; guided Q1 FY25 revenue in-line with consensus as the inventory correction stabilizes and Ambarella’s business recovers and reiterated its return to revenue growth in FY25/CY24.
• APLT +44%; after the company disclosed a $100 million private placement and said regulators have granted priority review for its lead drug candidate govorestat.
• BYND +42%; after mixed results/guidance as Q4 revs of $73.7M were 10.0% above consensus estimates but down -7.8% YoY, and guidance implies flat to negative sales growth and a mid-teens gross margin.
• EBAY +6%; delivered strong 4Q results, GMV beat expectations due to rebounding holiday demand and continued product improvements and issued encouraging 1Q/FY24 outlook.
• FSLR +7%; reported Q4 EPS at high end of guidance driven by lower costs, while guided 2024 estimates largely in line with the Analysts’ Day framework. New bookings ASP grew to 31.8c/W, better than Q3’s 30c/W.
• MSTR +12%; massive extended gains for crypto names as Bitcoin tops $61K in continued upward momentum; shares of COIN, MARA, RIOT, others still extending 2024 gains.
• VANI +390%; as announces positive NPM-115 preclinical weight loss data comparable to Ozempic/Wegovy and discloses NPM-139 as Semaglutide as strategy shifts to prioritize obesity portfolio.

 

• IAS -36%; as Q4 results beat but sees Q1 revenue $111M-$113M below consensus $119.73M, driven by pricing concessions to several Measurement clients.
• LMND -26%; after Q4 revs $115.5M vs. est. $111.7M but guides Q1 revs below views and FY24 revenue $505M-$510M vs. est. $520.95M and adj EBITDA loss ($160M)-($155M).
• NVAX -27%; posted a larger-than-expected Q4 loss (-$1.44 vs. est. -$0.45) and misses revenue estimates ($291M below ests $322M) and said expects 2024 sales to be flat or lower guiding $800M-$1B vs. est. $970M.
• PTN -40%; shares tumbled after a pivotal Phase 3 study evaluating the safety and efficacy of PL9643 missed its co-primary endpoint and a secondary endpoint related to clinical sign.
• UNH -4%; after the WSJ reported late Wednesday that the U.S. Department of Justice has launched an antitrust investigation into the managed care giant saying Investigators have in recent weeks been interviewing healthcare industry representatives in sectors where UnitedHealth competes.
• URBN -12%; shares slump as Q4 adj EPS $0.69 missed the $0.74 consensus on in-line revs $1.49B citing softer traffic from unfavorable weather in January while elevated expenses hurt profit.
• XPEV -6%; China EV stocks slipped early (LI, NIO, XPEV) after Senator Hawley noted this morning that President Biden should hike tariffs on Chinese EVs.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.