Mid-Morning Look

Monday, July 08, 2024

U.S. stocks open at new record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp as the overall stock market outlook remains upbeat and full of optimism as technology/AI demand growth continue to fuel the Nasdaq and boost broader markets. Early strength again in the Philadelphia Semiconductor index (SOX) which climbs to near three-week high, topping 5,755 (not fare from all-time high of 5,792.86) A quiet day of macro news today, but things pick up later this week with Fed Chairman Powell testimony on Capitol Hill midweek, CPI and PPI inflation data later in the week and earnings season right around the corner. Smallcap Russell 2000 index (IWM) seeing early strength ahead of Powell testimony. Stock markets doing a lot of nothing early, very choppy and in tight range, but still holding those recent record highs. Small pressure early in several large cap tech giants after hitting record highs Friday (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL). In political news, President Joe Biden tells members of Congress he is “firmly committed” to staying in 2024 race according to media reports citing White House letter and that he has had extensive conversations with democratic party leaders, elected officials.

• In Banks: Citigroup said CFG, MTB, and ALLY are top picks heading into Q2 earnings and opens a 30-day positive catalyst watch on MTB saying into Q2 earnings Citi remains bullish on the banks, with value-led opportunities particularly in the regionals where it believes NII has hit an inflection point as deposits have largely repriced, leaving only fixed-rate assets to reprice which could fuel NII growth in 2H24 and ’25, plus it expects results will show solid underlying credit quality. UBS downgraded shares of KEY to Neutral from Buy citing limited catalysts into earnings while the firm upgraded PNC to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $179, up from $165 saying it is better positioned than most to benefit from an improvement in demand and has sufficient excess capital above minimum requirements.
• In Asset Managers: SF and OWL downgraded to Hold at TD Cowen while calling JHG, SCHW, APO top picks in the sector into earnings. TD Cowen makes several changes into 2Q24 earnings season, expected to kick off on 7/15 with BLK. They trim our Buy recommendation list, and downgrade OWL and SF, both to Hold. We alter our price target work on the Alts—curbing targets moderately—easing retail gross up premium factor despite still bullish secular view. For the Traditionals – we generally raise our outlook, mostly due to above trend equities returns in 2Q.
• In Transports: in airlines, Deutsche Bank downgraded ALGT to Hold from Buy (tgt to $53 from $75) and cut SAVE to Sell from Hold (tgt to $2 from $3) saying while full-service airlines drive industry profits; low fare carriers continue to struggle despite record volumes and demand. In rails, CNI was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein saying the rail seems stuck for the n-t on Q2 cost pressure and potential intermodal book around due to strike risk. CSX was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America. In container/shipping, Barclays remain underweight rated on AMKBY, ZIM, HPGLY as approach peak rates/earnings.

• GLW +9%; guided Q2 core sales to exceed guidance, with core EPS at the high end of or slightly above guided range of $0.42-$0.46 (est. $0.45) and said now expects Q2 core sales of approximately $3.6B (vs. est. $3.41B), while believes that first-quarter 2024 will be lowest quarter for year.
• GRFS +20%; following news the Grifols family and Canadian fund Brookfield have agreed to launch a joint takeover bid for Spanish drugmaker with the intent to delist it, the companies said in regulatory filings on Monday.
• IDYA +14%; announces positive interim phase 2 monotherapy expansion data for IDE397 a potential first-in-class MAT2A Inhibitor in MTAP-deletion urothelial and lung cancer.
• MORF +76%; as LLY has agreed to buy biopharmaceutical company Morphic Holding for $3.2 billion in a deal that bolsters the drugmaker’s immunology pipeline; with shareholders to receive $57 per share.
• RCM +16%; after holder TCP-ASC said it’s in the process of finalizing a proposal to acquire all the outstanding shares of the revenue-management company that it doesn’t already own.
• SEDG +8%; upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Bank America with $29 tgt noting the shares are trading near five-year lows on softening residential demand, and the firm believes the company’s negative overhangs are reflected.

• GBX -7%; following earnings results as posted Q3 top and bottom-line miss (EPS $1.06/$820.3M vs. est. $1.14/$978.7M) and narrowed FY24 revenue view to $3.5B-$3.6B from $3.5B-$3.7B (est. $3.56B).
• HLVX -88%; said its experimental vaccine against the norovirus failed to reduce severe gastrointestinal events compared to a placebo in infants enrolled in a mid-stage clinical trial.
• NOW -5%; was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Guggenheim saying the software company’s valuation doesn’t match future risks.
• PARA -5%; and Skydance Media announced they entered into a definitive agreement to form “New Paramount”, through a two-step transaction including the acquisition of National Amusements, or NAI, which holds the controlling share stake in Paramount.