Mid-Morning Look

Friday, March 17, 2023

U.S. stocks choppy, currently lower after rebounding initially off pre-mkt declines, as another pullback in Treasury yields, an explosion of liquidity this week by central banks to help stave off a financial crisis in the wake of two large bank failures last week and buying momentum ahead of today’s option expiration boost stocks early. The tech heavy Nasdaq leading the way again, rising over 5% this week alone with mega caps jumping all week (NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX) as investors look to deploy money in “safer” tech. Technology rises keeping Nasdaq well bid and minimizing losses for the S&P as all other sectors are down on the day and NYSE breadth has nearly 4:1 advantage for decliners over advancers. Financials the biggest loser early as banks resume downward momentum in a volatile week of trading while Energy stocks slip as oil prices on track for weekly decline of -10%, its worst week since December. Transports holding up okay after FDX raised guidance for the year. As mentioned, triple witching option expiration today so volatility could be greater than normal. Lower inflation readings for the University of Michigan sentiment helped boost stocks around 10:00, but the banking situation remains worrisome for mkts, which is now moving to the lows. Note Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) has outperformed the S&P 500 for 11 straight days through yesterday’s close for the longest streak of outperformance since July 2017.

Economic Data

·     Industrial Production for February was unchanged vs. consensus +0.2% and below Jan +0.3%; Capacity utilization rate 78.0% vs. est. 78.4% and in-line with January; U.S. Feb manufacturing output +0.1% vs. est. (-0.2%) and Jan +1.3%

·     University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reported at 63.4 vs. est. 66.9; the 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.8% vs. prior 4.1% and the 5-Year Inflation Expectations rose 2.8%, vs. estimate 2.9%.

Stock GAINERS

·     BIDU +4%; said it had won a permit to provide a fully driverless ride-hailing service in the Chinese capital of Beijing.

·     COIN +7%; cryptocurrency-exposed stocks have been moving higher (MARA, RIOT, COIN, MSTR, HUT) as Bitcoin extended its gains, rising back above the $26,000 threshold.

·     FDX +9%; after mixed Q3 (EPS beat revs light) but increased its F2023 EPS Target 10%, to $14.60-$15.20, from $13.00-$14.00 excluding Mark-to-market and business optimization costs.

·     NEM +2%; gold miners rebound with rotation back into haven assets.

·     NVDA +2%; upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley saying they still see indications that LLM enthusiasm is turning into stronger spending both near term and long term.

·     X +1%; guides Q1 adj EPS $0.58-$0.63 vs. est. $0.41; guides Q1 adj EBITDA $375M vs. est. $304.8M; Mini Mill segment is expected to return to positive EBITDA in the first quarter.

·     WBD +3%; after Wolfe Research and Wells Fargo upgraded the stock.

Stock LAGGARDS

·     ACER -41%; said its experimental drug, ACER-801, did not achieve statistical significance in decreasing the frequency or severity of hot flashes in post-menopausal women in a mid-stage study.

·     CUTR -5%; after filed an NT 10-K on 2/28 saying it would miss its 10-K deadline and disclosed material weakness in internal control over financial reporting and cited a 15-day grace period.

·     FRC -16%; after its board suspended its dividend last night, a day after 11 major lenders deposited $30 billion in the bank to stop a spreading financial panic following two bank failures (stock downgraded to Neutral and tgt slashed to $5 from $140 at Wedbush).

·     GRPN -19%; posted Q4 adj EPS loss of (-$0.38) vs. profit last year and revs fell -34% y/y to $148.2B mln vs $217M year prior and withdraws previously issued full-year free cash flow and adj. EBITDA margin forecast citing turnaround strategy.

·     RNG -2%; downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer saying its next leg of growth will stem from the convergence with digital AI assistants, which will require investment.

·     RUN -6%; solar stocks (SEDG, FSLR, SPWR, NOVA) extend recent pullback amid increased perception of risk for the broader solar industry particularly for rooftop solar due to uncertainty in the financial sector (Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, etc.).

·     SRPT -19%; announced FDA will require an Advisory Committee prior to May 29 PDUFA date for accelerated approval of gene therapy SRP-001, this reverses prior guidance the Agency gave company as early as 2 weeks ago.