Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

U.S. stocks in the green, but pulling back from overnight highs as major averages are trying to avoid their first 4-day losing streak since the first week of January heading into month/quarter end tomorrow (markets closed Friday for holiday). Investors locking in some gains heading into the long weekend, with key February PCE/Core PCE inflation data Friday morning at 8:30 AM despite U.S. markets being closed (causing a little fear of a hotter inflation reading). Goldman Sachs also noted we could see the biggest rebalance since end of Q2 ‘2023. The firm noted large sellers into end of Q1 as models -$29B of U.S. equities to sell for quarter-end, ranking in the 86th %percentile over the past 3y in absolute value terms. Stocks have outperformed bonds by +11.2% over the quarter; S&P total return +9.5% / 10yr total return -1.7%. So some profit taking, fear ahead of upcoming data tomorrow (GDP, Chicago PMI, UoM) and Friday (PCE). In stocks news, several movers in the Pharma space on drug trial data, led by MRK after its FDA approval for PAH treatment. Early weakness in tech and semis, extending the late day roll in the sector, while the other 10 S&P sectors are higher led by defensive sectors such as utilities and REITs, both up over 1.5%. Bitcoin slips into negative territory, back below $70K as remains volatile while gold adds to gains.

• In Software: NCNO reported better Q4 RPO while subscription revenue of $107.5mn, short term bookings growth of +22% y/y, and operating margin of 15.6% were all ahead of expectations; FY25 guide of ~13-15% subscription growth includes ~2 points from DocFox, a function of FY24 bookings/churn, but should re-accelerate in FY26. PRGS delivered a mixed Q1, beating consensus estimates behind robust demand for its product portfolio and strong cost management, but 2Q revenue guidance missed estimates reflecting a tough YoY comparison.
• In Beverages: Jefferies analyzed the weakness in at-home coffee and believes the trends could be secular. Said while at-home coffee spend is 18% higher today vs 2020, believes this implies an additional 15% decline should the category continue to revert. Jefferies lowers estimate for KDP and flag risk for SJM, NSRGY and JDEP NA and said withing energy, continues to favor CELH and MNST.

• HOOD +3%; launched a new credit card only for its Gold customers for now but expected to be rolled out broadly later this year; gold Card to have no annual fee, no foreign transaction fees and have cash back offers via reward points and bookings on Co’s travel portal.
• KMB +2%; to reorganize business into three units to simplify operations and cut costs; targets more than $3B in gross productivity savings and approximately $500M in working capital savings, forecasts approximately $1.5B in one-time restructuring and reorganization costs.
• MRK +4%; won FDA approval of Winrevair (sotatercept) for the treatment of adults with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) to increase exercise capacity, improve WHO functional class, and reduce the risk of clinical worsening events. Winrevair’s list price is $14,000 per vial, and most patients use a single vial every 3-weeks.
• MRVL +4%; shares mentioned positively at Citigroup, opening a “positive catalyst watch” on shares into the company’s artificial intelligence investor event on April 11; also notes stock’s recent underperformance following Marvell’s weaker than expected April quarter guidance.
• NCNO +19%; reported better Q4 RPO while subscription revenue of $107.5mn, short term bookings growth of +22% y/y, and operating margin of 15.6% were all ahead of expectations.
• NVCR +8%; after its METIS phase III clinical trial met primary endpoint, demonstrating a statistically significant extension in time to intracranial progression for patients with brain metastases from non-small cell lung cancer.
• PAYS +16%; shares jump on results as Q4 EPS $0.10 vs. est. $0.02; Q4 revs $13.7M vs. est. $12.62M/expects FY revenue of $54.5M-$56.7M above consensus of $52.2M.
• ROIV +6%; will replace RUN in the S&P MidCap 400, and Sunrun will replace PGTI in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Monday, April 1.

• CCL -3%; Q2 revenue grew 22% to $5.41B, mostly in-line with $5.41B estimate as passenger ticket revenue rose 26% to $3.62B and onboard and other revenue increased 14.5% to $1.79B while bookings for the quarter were at record levels but said sees Baltimore bridge collapse resulting in a $10M hit to 2024 income.
• COIN -3%; after the Court denies Defendants’ motion for judgment on the pleadings insofar as the Court finds the SEC has sufficiently pleaded that Coinbase operates as an exchange, as a broker, and as a clearing agency under the federal securities laws (shares fell as case not dismissed which was the hope).
• DRCT -43%; after missing quarterly consensus revenue by $25M (albeit still growing 35% y/y) while FY24 revenue guidance of $170-190M was also $60M below the Street at the mid-point.
• GME -14%; reported a plunge in revs; Q4 results missed analysts’ top- and bottom-line estimates; Q4 adj EPS $0.22 vs. est. $0.29 and revs $1.79B vs. est. $2.05B (and down from $2.226B y/y).
• MDXG -4%; announced receipt of a letter from the FDA indicating the agency’s position that AXIOFILL does not meet the requirements under Section 361; MDXG affirmed guidance for 2024.
• NIO -5%; cut its Q1 forecast for deliveries saying they now expect to deliver around 30,000 vehicles in the first quarter, compared with its prior forecast of 31,000 to 33,000.