Mid-Morning Look

Friday, May 24, 2024

U.S. stocks open higher following the mini rout on Thursday, as a combination of manufacturing data and profit taking following a “sell the news” type event after NVDA results boosted stock markets initially yesterday to record highs (for S&P and Nasdaq) before fading all day to end near lows. Coming into today, the S&P 500 index is on track for its 1^st negative week in 6 while the Nasdaq looks to extend its winning streak to 5 in a row. Gold prices are on track for the first weekly decline in three, as Treasury yields, and the dollar bounce this week. Stocks got an added boost around 10:00 AM after the University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations showed improvement from two-weeks ago, boosting Fed rate cut hopes. Treasury yields turn negative, 10-year-yield last slightly down at 4.472% after the data. After disappointing market breadth yesterday, seeing a nice bounce early with nearly all eleven S&P sectors in the “green” after all finished in the “red” Thursday. Market volumes may slow as the day progresses heading into the long 3-day Memorial Day holiday weekend.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook final May 3.3% vs prelim 3.5% and final April 3.2% while surveys of consumers 5-year inflation outlook final May 3.0% vs prelim 3.1% and final April 3.0% (improving inflation data points from prior helped boost market sentiment).
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment final May 69.1 vs. consensus 67.5 and vs preliminary May 67.4 and final April 77.2; current conditions index final May 69.6 vs prelim May 68.8 and final April 79.0; expectations index final May 68.8 vs prelim May 66.5 and final April 76.0.

• In Payments: Wedbush initiated coverage on several names: initiated Outperform on TOST ($30 tgt) citing robust location expansion in the U.S. as well as nascent overseas success; OP rated on CINT ($5 tgt) saying is well positioned to generate low single and mid-teens revenue growth for 2024/2025; OP rated on GDYN ($13 tgt) citing outsized exposure to the retail and tech, media, and telecom verticals; OP rated on HURN ($110 tgt) citing outsized exposure to healthcare and education, two verticals undergoing disruptive change and Neutral on FLYW, FOUR.
• In Auto Retail: Mizuho noted auto services operator MNRO reported Thursday that comp sales for the fiscal Q4 period ending March 30th declined by (7.2%), tracking well below a published consensus expectation for +1.9% and noted quarter-to-date, comp sales through mid-May have decelerated further to about (12%). The firm notes softer prints from AZO this week and ORLY in late April are fueling investor debate on weakening demand trends across the auto parts and services space (note AAP is expected to report next week).

• BAH +5%; after results and guidance; Q4 EPS $1.33 tops $1.23 estimate on revs $2.77B vs. est. $2.72B; Sees FY25 revenue growth 8%-11%, vs. consensus $11.48B.
• DECK +12%; Q4 results came above already lofty expectations (sales $959.758M vs est. $887.55M, gross margin 56.2%) and guidance for FY25 was relatively on par with the Street.
• GH +14%; shares jumped after FDA advisors recommended the approval of its blood test to detect a cancer that begins in the colon or rectum; news pushed shares of EXAS lower as tests for colorectal cancer include stool-based tests such as the company’s Cologuard.
• MGNI +11%; was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank America and raise tgt to $15 from $13 on increased confidence that it will become the leading supply-side tech solution in CTV advertising (mid-teens grower medium term), as the industry transitions to more automated (programmatic) ad execution, a technology MGNI specializes in.
• MRUS +31%; after interim data its experimental treatment, petosemtamab, in combination with MRK’s Keytruda showed a 60% response rate in reducing or clearing tumors in 10 patients with head and neck cancer.
• NLST +10%; after a U.S. jury said MU owes NLST $445 million in damages for violating Netlist’s patent rights in memory-module technology for high-performance computing.
• ROST +9%; reported top/bottom-line beat, on better GM and SGA and guided 2Q bracketing consensus and raised FY EPS to a high end above the Street to $5.79-$5.98 from $5.64-$5.89 (est. $5.92) and backs FY24 comp store sales view.

• CVCO –4%; posted Q4 EPS of $4.03 which was below consensus estimate of $4.51 while total sales of $420M were below last year’s $476M level and Q4 total shipments were 12% lower YoY.
• DOMO -7%; after the results as Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.33) worse than est. loss (-$0.23) while Q1 revs $80.1M vs. est. $79.49M; but guided Q2 EPS loss (26c-30c) on revs $76M-$77M, below consensus loss (-$0.08)/$79.6M.
• IMCR -8%; after the abstract for its upcoming ASCO presentation from brenetafusp, its PRAME-targeting bispecific treating melanoma, was released.
• INTU -7%; reported FQ3 revenues ahead of consensus expectations, although investors were disappointed in the updated Consumer revenue guidance (~8% Y/Y vs. buy-side expectations of ~10% Y/Y).
• SMMT -22%; after trial data on Akeso’s lung cancer drug disappointed; Summit acquired exclusive rights of the drug in the US, Canada, EU, and Japan from Akeso for $500 million in late 2022.
• VSTM -60%; reversing gains of over 50% overnight after more details revealed from ASCO abstracts released.
• WDAY -12%; reported Q1 EPS, revs and adj operating income above consensus but cuts FY25 subscription revenue to $7.7B-$7.725B from $7.725B-$7.775B