Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

U.S. stocks open higher, led by gains in technology stocks after another strong beat and raise quarter from chip making giant NVDA overnight and as yields pushed lower, extending the November pullback into the Thanksgiving Day holiday tomorrow (US stock markets closed Thursday and early close 1:00 PM Friday). But as stock opened at 2023 highs for the S&P, profit taking ensued as NVDA turned from “green” to “red” (shares still +227% YTD) and the dollar/Treasury yields bounced on higher inflation data. US 30-year yield falls 3bp to 4.518%, lowest since September and the 10-year yield hit lows around 4.365% (down 46 basis points so far in November, to trade near two-month lows) before bouncing to 4.43% on higher University of Michigan inflation expectations data (see below). Oil prices tumbled over 4% after OPEC+ meeting scheduled for weekend has been delayed to November 30th from November 26th as talks hit turbulence as Saudis agitate over output levels. Market expectations are for OPEC+ to keep crude production steady in 2024. Industrial/machinery stocks slide behind lower outlook from DE while retailers GES, URBN, JWN decline following their results. Coming into today, the S&P 500 is up 8.2% so far in November, its best month since July 2022. Mortgage demand jumps to six-week high as interest rates continue to drop as the 30-yr rate decreased to 7.41% from 7.61%.

Economic Data

·     Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 209K from 233K prior week and below consensus 226K as data pushed up a day from normal Thursday release due to Thanksgiving Day holiday; the 4-week moving average fell to 220K from 220,750 prior week and continued claims fell to 1.840M from 1.862M prior week and consensus 1.875M.

·     Durable goods orders for October fell (-5.45) to $279.4B, compared with the (-3.2%) decrease expected and the prior month +4.6%; excluding transportation, core durable goods orders flat vs. +0.1% consensus and +0.5% prior.

·     University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment final Nov 61.3 above consensus 60.6 and vs preliminary Nov 60.4 and final Oct 63.8; current conditions index final Nov 68.3 vs prelim Nov 65.7 and final Oct 70.6; expectations index final Nov 56.8 vs prelim Nov 56.9 and final Oct 59.3.

·     University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook final Nov 4.5% vs prelim 4.4% and final Oct 4.2% and the 5-year inflation outlook final Nov 3.2% vs prelim 3.2% and final Oct 3.0%.

Stock GAINERS

·     CLX +2%; upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan and raised price tgt to $145 from $124 as sees improvement in tracked channel demand and expects Clorox to beat analyst consensus estimates.

·     GDDY +2%; upgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital and raise tgt to $124 from $90 as likes its structurally hedged customer acquisition model, have rising confidence in margin expansion coming out of its conference.

·     HPQ +4%; revs fell last quarter but said sales have improved in recent months and that expects the PC market will grow over the next year; reported Q3 revenue declines in both its personal systems and printing divisions; guided F1Q EPS below.

·     MSFT +1%; OpenAI reached an agreement in principle for Sam Altman to return as CEO while a new 3-person board will now oversee the non-profit and has been tasked w/ investigating the alleged conduct that led to Altman’s dismissal in the first place.

·     UAL +4%; seeing strength in travel related stocks as oil prices tumble; CCL, RCL, NCLH, DAL, AAL among movers to the upside.

Stock LAGGARDS

·     ADSK -6%; posted better than feared Q3 results but preliminary FY25E revenue growth guidance (9%+ y/y) was below expectations (Street: ~11% y/y) and overshadowed otherwise solid F3Q24 (October) results.

·     APA -3%; downgraded at Citigroup while broader energy complex lower as WTI crude and Brent fall over 4% OPEC+ producers unexpectedly delayed a meeting on output planned for Sunday; shares of XOM, CVX, SLB, EOG, MRO all pressured.

·     DE -6%; reported Q4 EPS $8.26 vs. est. $7.46; Q4 sales fell about -1% y/y to $15.41B vs. est. $13.64B; Q4 production and precision agriculture sales fell 6% and small agriculture and turf sales declined 13%; forecast 2024 net income between $7.75B-$8.25B vs. ests $9.33B.

·     GES -10%; top and bottom line missed (Q3 adj EPS $0.49/$51.47M vs est. $0.61/$655.6M and guides FY24 adj EPS $2.67-$2.74, missing est. $2.96 and lowers FY revenue growth forecast to 1.8%-2.4% from 2.5%-4%.

·     JWN -7%; reaffirmed FY23 revenue guidance and tightened the adj. EBIT range after Q3 adj EPS beat, but sales missed.

·     NVDA -3%; on profit taking as beat revenue estimates with Data Center generating another impressive quarter of $14.5B in revenue, rising 279% y/y; reported Q3 EPS $4.02 vs est. $3.37 on revs $18.12B vs est. $16.182B guides Q4 revs $20B +/- 2% vs est. $17.86B

·     SOL -8%; downgraded to Market Perform at Northland after SOL reported a Q3 miss and weak Q4 guide as Q4 pushouts are expected to land in Q1’24.

·     TRDA -10%; said the FDA declined to lift the clinical hold on a planned study of ENTR-601-44 as a potential treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) despite providing additional data.

·     URBN -9%; posted Q3 revenue above analysts’ estimates, on strong demand for its brands like Free People and Anthropologies and revs of $1.28B topped the $1.26B estimate, but guided Q4 revenue growth in the mid-single digits.