Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, November 28, 2023

After major U.S. averages slipped on Monday (a rarity to be down on a Monday the last 4-months), U.S. stocks are choppy once again/slightly lower with only three trading days left in November. The S&P 500 remains on track for +8.5% monthly gain, the Nasdaq +10.6% MTD, the Russell 2000 +7.75% and the Dow up about 7% MTD. The S&P 500 is looking to avoid its first 2-day losing streak since the end of Oct (10/25-10/27) with Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary lagging early. Markets treading cautiously but holding gains ahead of several Fed speakers today (and week) as well as Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – and the Beige Book, a snapshot of the U.S. economy, due later this week. The Euro continues to make gains vs the U.S. dollar, hitting highest levels since mid-August, last up 0.2% at $1.0978 as the US dollar index hits (DXY) hits fresh three-month lows after consumer confidence data, last down -0.25% at 102.89. The recent inflation data and softer economic readings has all but eliminated expectations of any further rate hikes and the market is now expecting the Fed to cut rates in early 2024 (despite the Fed directly telling markets recently it was too early to talk cuts). Money markets have almost fully priced in a pause in rate hikes at the December meeting, with expectations of at least a 25-basis point rate cut in May 2024 standing at nearly 50%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Economic Data

·     Richmond Fed composite manufacturing index -5 in Nov vs +3 in October and Richmond Fed manufacturing shipments index -8 in Nov vs +9 in Oct.

·     Consumer Confidence index for Nov at 102.0 vs. consensus 101.0 and vs Oct 102.6; the present situation index 138.2 in Nov vs Oct revised 138.6 (previous 143.1) and the expectations index 77.8 in Nov vs Oct 72.7; 1-year consumer inflation rate expectations 5.7% in November.

·     U.S. home prices +0.6% in September from August and U.S. home prices +6.1% in 12 months through September – U.S. regulator

Stock GAINERS

·     BA +1%; upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform at RBC Capital and raise tgt to $275 from $200 saying after another year of supply chain disruptions and lowered expectations, the firm believes the set-up into 2024 is favorable.

·     CG +4%; will replace ICUI in the S&P MidCap 400; ICUI will replace PACW in the S&P SmallCap 600, which is being acquired by BANC.

·     CWEN +8%; will replace VRTV in the S&P SmallCap 600. Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, LLC is to acquire Veritiv Corporation.

·     PDD +18%; as the Temu owner reported Q3 net income of RMB15.5B ($2.1B), or RMB10.60 per ADR, whereas it recorded net income of RMB10.6B, or RMB7.34 per ADS y/y. Revenue surged 94% to RMB68.8 billion, while analysts had been looking for RMB55.2B.

·     RNA +15%; after BMY said it will take a stake in the company as part of a broader licensing and research deal focused on the development and commercialization of multiple cardiovascular targets.

·     SWTX +20%; said the FDA approved nirogacestat, the biotech’s oral treatment for desmoid tumors.

·     TWLO +2%; after The Information reported hedge fund Anson builds stake in co, pushes for sale https://tinyurl.com/y43t8te6

·     X +1%; after CNBC’s David Faber reported this morning that five parties are expected to bid ahead of Friday deadline and that CLF and MT are expected to make final bids for the entire company. https://tinyurl.com/54ppppt4

Stock LAGGARDS

·     ARGX -10%; announced that the Phase III ADVANCE-SC (n=207) study of efgartigimod subQ failed on both the primary (13.7% vs. 16.2% for drug vs. placebo) and secondary endpoints.

·     BNS -3%; missed Q4 profit estimates as the company set aside more money than expected for potentially souring loans; provisions for credit losses totaled C$1.26 billion ($925 million), more than the C$870 million analysts had expected.

·     MU -4%; updated its revenue, gross margin, operating expense, and EPS guidance for Q1 as previously guided revenue of $4.4B plus or minus $200M and non-GAAP gross margins of (4.0%) plus or minus 2% – now sees Q1 revs $4.7B.

·     SHOP -1%; was downgraded to underweight from neutral at Piper Sandler saying the current shares hold an “untenable valuation.”

·     ZS -2%; Q1 results exceeded consensus estimates on revenue, billings, operating income, EPS, and free cash flow, but Guggenheim noted the 34% billings growth (vs. 30% guidance) was likely below buy-side expectations of 35-36% growth. In addition, management did not pass through the billings beat (relative to guidance) to annual guidance, sending shares lower.