Early Look

Tuesday, April 4, 2023

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	76.00	0.22%	33,862
S&P 500	15.25	0.37%	4,169
Nasdaq	66.50	0.50%	13,336

 

 

U.S. S&P futures (Spuz) at 4,165, trading above yesterday highs of 4,157.75 as stock momentum remains firmly to the upside, as every dip over the last week has been met with aggressive dip buying, a common theme thus far in 2023. Overnight the Aussie RBA kept interest rates on hold (as expected), raising hopes European and U.S. counterparts will soon follow suit. Right now, the bears have a much more compelling argument with inflation still high, earnings moving lower, stocks at upper end of trading range, but the bulls control the price action and that is all that matters at this time. Yesterday, the S&P 500 and Dow posted their 4^th straight positive session, while the S&P 500 energy index posts largest gain since October, rising 4.9% behind the surprise OPEC+ production cuts. Stocks overall were mixed while Treasuries rallied after headline PMI declined below consensus estimates. It was the weakest headline print since 2009, aside from the early months of the pandemic. Declining demand is keeping the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index in contractionary territory. The data tempered initial concerns on inflation from OPEC+’s surprise plan to cut oil production. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil advanced toward $81 a barrel after rallying by more than 6% on Monday, with backwardation strengthening. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 99 points to 28,287, the Shanghai Index gained 16 points to 3,312, and the Hang Seng Index slipped -134 points to 20,274. In Europe, the German DAX is up 138 points to 15,718, while the FTSE 100 is up a few points to 7,677. In currency markets, the British pound rises 0.8% versus the greenback to 1.25, its highest level since June 2022 while the Aussie dollar slips after the RBA left rates on hold. Central speakers today include Fed’s Cook (Dove), Fed’s Collins.

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     7:45 AM ET           ICSC Weekly Retail Sales

·     8:55 AM ET           Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales

·     10:00 AM ET         Durable Goods M/M for February

·     10:00 AM ET         Factory Orders M/M for February…est. (-0.5%)

·     10:00 AM ET         JOLTs Job Openings for February…est. 10.4M

·     4:30 PM ET            API Weekly Inventory Data

·     6:00 PM ET            Fed’s Mester speaks in New York.

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: AYI KIRK LNN MSM

·     Earnings After the Close: KRUS RGP SGH

 

Other Key Events:

·     BMO Capital Healthcare Property Tour, 4/4-4/5, in Boston, MA

·     Cantor Future of Oncology Virtual Symposium (virtual), 4/3-4/5

·     TD Cowen Annual Fiber-to-the-Home Virtual Symposium, 4/4

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index gained 15.10 points, or 0.37%, to 4,124.41.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 326.77 points, or 0.98%, to 33,600.92.

·     The Nasdaq Composite slipped -32.45 points, or 0.27%, to 12,189.45.

·     The Russell 2000 Index dipped -0.17 points, or 0.01% to 1,802.31.

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.81	81.23
Brent	0.75	85.68
Gold	-1.60	1,998.80
EUR/USD	0.0022	1.0917
JPY/USD	0.56	132.97
10-Year Note	+0.015	3.447%

 

 

World News

·     The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has held official interest rates steady for the first time in a year, as bank governor Philip Lowe confirmed the official cash rate would remain at 3.6% until at least May.

·     Oil is up slightly after prices surged the most in more than a year yesterday after a surprise OPEC+ cut. President Joe Biden downplayed the action, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen criticized the move as unconstructive.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC) shares tumbled over -20% last night while its preferred shares (APE) jumped over 20% after the co agreed to settle litigation and proceed with converting its preferred stock into common shares. AMC said that as part of the settlement, it has agreed to pay the plaintiffs one share for every 7.5 shares they own.

·     Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA) announces offering of 6M shares of common stock for holders.

·     Hyzon Motors Inc. (HYZN) files for non-timely 10-k with U.S. SEC; expects previously reported material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting still exist, have not been fully remediated.

·     Tesla (TSLA) sold 88,869 units of China-made electric vehicles (EV) in March for both domestic sales and exports, up 35.0% from a year ago, data published by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed on Tuesday.

·     Vista Outdoor (VSTO) announced an over $50 million cost reduction and earnings improvement program, which includes office closures, spending cuts, EBIT improvements and headcount reductions across our brands and corporate teams.

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Acuity Brands (AYI) Q2 adjusted EPS $3.06 vs. est. $2.72; Q2 revs $943.6M vs. est. $958.47M; company’s intelligent-spaces unit posted sales of $58.2M, up 16.4% from a year earlier and its Lighting and Lighting Controls segment posted sales of $890.8M, up 3.2%.

·     Lindsay (LNN) Q2 EPS $1.63 vs. est. $1.53; Q2 revs $166.2M vs. est. $188.27M.

·     MSC Industrial (MSM) Q2 adjusted EPS $1.45 vs. est. $1.34; Q2 revs $961.6M vs. est. $934.07M; reaffirms FY23 adjusted operating margin view 12.7%-13.3% and backs FY23 average daily sales growth view 5%-9%.

 

Financials

·     The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced the framework of a marketing process for the approximately $60 billion loan portfolio retained in receivership following the failure of Signature Bank, New York, New York. The portfolio is comprised primarily of commercial real estate loans, commercial loans, and a smaller Pool of single–family residential loans. The CRE loans include a concentration of multifamily properties, primarily located in NY.

·     Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) said it had increased Bitcoin production 21% Month-Over-Month, producing a record 825 BTC in March 2023 and a record 2,195 BTC in Q1 2023; increased Hash rate 64% in Q1 2023 to 11.5 EH/s as of March 31, 2023.

 

Healthcare

·     Ascendis Pharma (ASND) downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley on increased regulatory uncertainty, following an FDA setback for the Copenhagen- headquartered drugmaker’s TransCon PTH.

·     Butterfly Network Inc (BFLY) received FDA clearance for a tool to aid assessment of abnormal lung conditions, sending shares higher.

·     Gossamer Bio (GOSS) disclosed that the FDA placed a partial clinical hold on all trials of GB5121, in response to serious adverse events that have been observed in the Phase 1b/2 STAR-CNS study, including atrial fibrillation, a sudden death event and a fatal intracranial hemorrhage.

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Cable and wireless ratings, KeyBanc upgraded WideOpenWest (WOW) and Comcast (CMCSA), and downgraded Charter Communications (CHTR) saying the convergence between wireless and broadband is becoming destructive to all, but near-term dynamics favor cable.

·     Etsy (ETSY) upgraded to overweight at Piper saying that the online marketplace operator should see a reacceleration of active buyer growth over the medium term, which can support continued share gains.

·     Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) unable to file its form 10-k for the year ended December 31, 2022; said it anticipates that it will file its form 10-k within the fifteen-day grace period provided by SEC; a loss for the year ended of at least approximately $10 million.

·     NCino (NCNO) downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley saying it sees challenging end-market dynamics weighing on first-half 2024 bookings performance and 2025 full- year results for the cloud banking system operator.