Early Look

Friday, April 11, 2025

After falling as low as 5,206 overnight for S&P futures (Spuz), prices are now up +0.8% at 5,347 bouncing after China also raised tariff prices on the U.S., but said they wouldn’t go any higher. The reversal in the Treasury market also temporarily gives markets a pause, as the 10-yr yield hit highs of 4.49% overnight (a 60bps move off Monday low of 3.88%) but is down to 4.39%, while the US dollar is on track for one of its largest weekly declines in years. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell 1,023 points to 33,585, the Shanghai Index gained 14 points to 3,238, and the Hang Seng Index rose 232 points to 20,914. In Europe, the German DAX is down -166 points to 20,396, while the FTSE 100 rises 56 points to 7,969. Investors head into the final trading day of the week thanks to Wednesday’s sharp rally, awaiting key economic data (PPI inflation and University of Michigan Confidence) and banks earnings.

China struck back against the U.S. by also raising its duties on imports of US goods to 125% from 84%, a day after the White House said that US tariffs on Chinese imports are now at least 145%, not the 125% that Trump had said previously, while China also said it will ignore us if it keeps imposing tariffs. The countermeasures will come in on Saturday, further intensifying a US-China trade war that has roiled US stocks. The trade conflict has weighed on investor sentiment, even as Trump instituted a 90-day pause on steep Liberation Day tariffs and the EU matched a US pause on retaliatory duties.

The US dollar continues to roll, down another 1.1% below $100 to $99.74; as the Euro surges 1.48% to 1.1363 (highest level since February 2022) and the Japanese Yen strengthens to 142.87 in a 1% move (lowest since September). June gold is up another +2.25% or $71 to $3,248 an ounce (hit earlier record high of $3,255.90). The 10-yr yield is nearly flat at 4.395%, off overnight highs around 4.49%

After posting its biggest daily returns since 2008 on Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined notably on Thursday as nearly all major S&P sectors closed deep in the red once again Consumer Staples (XLP) was flat as the trade war with China becomes reality, with biggest declines in Energy (XLE) down -6.5%, Technology (XLK) -4.66% and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -3.91% heading into the final trading day of the week. The euphoria from President Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff reprieve gave way to caution and more anxiety as investors fretted about the escalating trade war with China after the White House raised U.S. tariffs on imported Chinese goods to a total 145%, an increase from 125% just the day prior. Even a better-than-expected U.S. inflation report that showed U.S. consumer prices (CPI) unexpectedly falling in March helped ease heavy stock losses.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -1,014.79 points, or 2.50%, to 39,593.66
• The Nasdaq Composite plunged -737.66 points, or 4.31%, to 16,387.31
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -81.76 points, or 4.27% to 1,831.40

• 8:30 AM EST                Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline Y/Y for March…est. +3.3% (prior +3.2%)
• 8:30 AM EST                Core PPI Ex: Food & Energy M/M for March…est. +0.3% (prior -0.1%)
• 8:30 AM EST                Core PPI Ex: Food &Energy Y/Y for March…est. +3.6% (prior +3.4%
• 10:00 AM EST              University of Michigan Confidence, April-prelim…est. 54.5 (prior 57.0)
• 10:00 AM EST              University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations…prior 5.0% and 4.1%
• 11:00 AM EST              Fed’s Musalem Speaks on US Economy/Policy
• 11:00 AM EST              Fed’s Williams Speaks on Outlook, Monetary Policy
• 1:00 PM EST                Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Stellantis (STLA) said global shipments fell 9% y/y in Q1 to an estimated 1.2 million vehicles, it said on Friday, after a 12% drop in 2024; said the drop primarily reflected lower North American production; in the first three months of 2025, Stellantis’ shipments were down 20% in North America and 8% in its enlarged Europe area.
• TreeHouse (THS) said sees Q1 adjusted revenue at least $792M vs. consensus $789.66M and sees Q1 adjusted EBITDA at least $52M; still sees 2025 revenue $3.34B-$3.40B; said streamlining our organizational and cost structures; actions span organizational changes as well as additional margin mgmt and cost control initiatives.

• Fastenal (FAST) Q1 EPS $0.52, in-line with consensus with sales $1.959B vs. est. $1.95B; Q1 Daily sales $31.1M, +5.1% y/y, and Daily sales +5%; There was one less selling day in Q1 of 2025 relative to the prior year period.
• Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) said it expects Q1 2025 revenue growth of approximately 5%; revenue growth lower than expected due to weakened demand; said Q2 capacity expected to be down low single digits; said unable to reaffirms FY 25 guidance due to uncertain env’t.
• Siemens (SIEGY) executive Agustin Escobar was killed on Thursday along with his wife and their three children in a helicopter crash near New York City, The New York Times’ reports. Escobar led Siemens’ rail infrastructure division from the company’s Berlin office.

• Bank of New York (BK) Q1 adj EPS $1.58 vs. est. $1.50; Q1 net interest margin 1.3%, Common equity Tier 1 ratio 11.5%, Total fee and other revenue rose 3% to $3.63B and Return on equity (ROE) 12.6%; BNY’s assets under custody and administration were $53.1 trillion in the first quarter, 9% higher than last year.
• BlackRock (BLK) Q1 adj EPS $11.30 vs. est. $10.21; Q1 revenue $5.28B vs. est. $5.31B; Q1 AUM $11.58T, up 11% y/y; Reports $84B of quarterly total net inflows in Q1, reflecting 3% annualized organic asset growth.
• JPMorgan (JPM) Q1 adj EPS $5.07 tops consensus $4.64 and revenue $45.3B vs. est. $44.11B; Q1 Provision for credit losses $3.31B, vs. est. $2.7B, Return on equity (ROSE) 18% vs. est. 16.2%; Q1 net charge offs $2.3B; Q1 net reserve build $973M; Q1 FICC sales & trading rev $5.85B vs. est. $5.99B.