Early Look

Friday, April 12, 2024

U.S. stock futures are looking mixed, with Dow futures slightly higher after underperformance yesterday, while Nasdaq futures fall -0.4% behind chip weakness amid China comments. Trade tensions ramp up between the U.S. and China as first, Senator Sherrod Brown late yesterday called for a complete ban on Chinese electric vehicles in America, while overnight China retaliated after the WSJ reports China tells Telecom carriers to phase out foreign chips in a blow to INTC and AMD as those shares looking lower. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 80 points to 39,523, the Shanghai Index fell -14 points to 3,018, and the Hang Seng Index fell -373 points to 16,721. In Europe, the German DAX is up 165 points to 18,120, while the FTSE 100 rises 97 points or 1.25% behind strength in materials to trade at 8,021.

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 ended higher on Thursday after inflation data showed that producer prices (PPI) increased only modestly in March, negating some fears over persistently high price pressures in the wake of hotter than expected consumer price (CPI) gains for the month of March on Wednesday. A soft $22 billion sale of 30-year Treasuries (which was not as bad as a 10-yr auction the day prior) also eased fears of a sharp drop off in demand for U.S. government bonds. The Nasdaq was the best performing major index, rising 1.7% as technology led sector gainers, ending up over 2%, while financials were the worst performer ahead of earnings this morning from JPM, Wells and Citigroup. Other than the general stock market resiliency (erasing all of CPI related losses yesterday), gold futures soaring to new highs (almost every day recently) remains a big story as prices jump another $40 or 1.65% to $2,412 overnight despite another spike in the U.S. dollar (DXY +0.35% to 105.46). Oil prices also jump more than 1% as tensions between Israel/Iran overshadow a lower demand outlook from the IEA.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped -2.43 points, or 0.01%, to 38,459.08.
• The Nasdaq Composite surged 271.84 points, or 1.68%, to 16,442.20.
• The Russell 2000 Index climbed 14.21 points, or 0.70% to 2,042.60.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Export Prices M/M for March…est. +0.3%
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Sentiment, April-Pre…est. 79.0
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
• 3:30 PM ET                   Fed’s Daly Participates in Fireside Chat

• China March exports slumped (-7.5%) year-on-year, marking the biggest fall since August last year and compared with a (-2.3%) decline forecast (they rose 7.1% in the January-February period); China Imports for March also declined (-1.9%) y/y from the 3.5% growth in the first two months, missing an expected 1.4% rise.
• China crude oil imports in March totaled 49.05 million metric tons, or about 11.55 million barrels per day (bpd), according to data from the General Administration of Customs, a 6.23% decrease from the relatively high 12.3 million bpd imported in March 2023.
• After a stronger-than-expected CPI print on Wednesday, Bank of America and Deutsche Bank are both now predicting that the Federal Reserve won’t cut US rates until this December. Both had previously expected June, the Financial Times reported. That’s even with some quirks in the inflation data that smart folks online have been pointing out. https://tinyurl.com/5ywye7k2
• The Bank of Korea left its key interest rate unchanged at 3.5% as expected while forecasting that domestic economic growth will continue its improving trend and that core inflation will maintain its slowing trend.
• ECB policymakers still expect to cut interest rates in June, but some think the case for pausing at their following meeting is becoming stronger given a continued rebound in U.S. inflation, three sources told Reuters.

• Good Times Restaurants (GTIM) Q2 Good Times brand comp store sales went up 0.9% and decreased 3.2% for its Bad Daddy’s brand compared to the same prior year fiscal quarter.
• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) has canceled more than a dozen cruises for 2025. According to Cruise Industry News, the canceled cruises were set to visit the Western and Eastern Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the Adriatic Sea, the Middle East, the Red Sea, Asia, and Northern Europe.
• Southwest Airlines (LUV) expects aircraft deliveries from Boeing (BA) this year to come in at only about half of the airline’s estimate in March of 46, putting further pressure on the U.S. budget carrier’s growth plans, Reuters reported citing people familiar with the matter said.

• Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Sothern Coppr (SCCO), Teck Resources (TECK): Copper prices rise as data showed China copper imports rose 16% in March from a year earlier; Three-month copper rose 2.1% to $9,540/ton on the London Metals Exchange, surpassing the 14-month peak of $9,523 touched on Tuesday.
• Corteva (CTVA) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan saying 2024 is likely to begin slowly for Corteva as crop chemical de-stocking continues in South America and Europe.
• DHT Holdings (DHT) said for Q1 of 2024, company estimates time charter equivalent earnings for its fleet at $50,900 per day; thus far in Q2, 42% of available spot days have been booked at an average rate of $54,200 per day on a discharge-to-discharge basis.
• Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel Corp (X) will be decided by European Union antitrust regulators by May 17, with their approval a formality, a European Commission filing showed.

• Globe Life (GL) issued the following statement refuting the allegations raised in a report issued today by Fuzzy Panda Research: "For over 70 years, our business model has stood the test of the time, and we continue to generate sustainable earnings growth that provides long-term value for our shareholders. With over 17 million policies in force, our millions of customers value the protection of the company’s products, and we strive to be there when our customers need us most. We are disappointed today to see self-motivated short sellers push inflammatory allegations to drive down Globe Life’s stock price. (GL shares fell -53% on Thursday, which also markets its 10^th straight day of declines).
• The White House announced another round of student loan cancellations for nearly 277K borrowers, cancelling $7.4B in debt as the Biden administration has now doled out $153B in student debt relief for 4.3 million people through various actions. After the Supreme Court blocked the president’s signature student debt cancellation plan last year, the administration found workarounds to provide borrowers relief.  https://tinyurl.com/4jnuu2mx
• Brixmor Property Group (BRX) announces Chief Executive Officer and President James m. Taylor to take temporary medical leave of absence.
• UL Solutions Inc. (ULS) announces pricing of its upsized initial public offering (IPO) of 33.8M shares of its class a common stock (from prior 28M) at $28.00 per share.

• Applied Digital (APLD) Q3 revenue $43.3M below consensus est. $47.9M on wider than expected Q2 EPS loss (-$0.52); said encountered several challenges in quarter that impacted their financial performance due to facility power outages in our datacenter hosting business.
• DocuSign (DOCU) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS.