Early Look

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

U.S. stock futures are looking slightly higher, trying to build on yesterday’s gains as optimism over a possible auto tariff reprieve lifted sentiment ahead of the next round of corporate earnings. President Donald Trump said he is exploring possible temporary exemptions to his tariffs on imported vehicles and parts. The CBOE volatility index (VIX) closed down -6.67 points at 30.89, its lowest close since April 3 and indicated lower again this morning. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 285 points to 34,267, the Shanghai Index rose 4 points to 3,267, and the Hang Seng Index climbed 48 points to 21,466. In Europe, the German DAX is up 217 points to 21,172, while the FTSE 100 is up 69 points to 8,203. The International Energy Agency slashed forecasts for global oil demand this year amid the brewing trade war, and in its first detailed assessment of 2026 predicted a persistent supply surplus. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down the recent selloff in the bond market, rejecting speculation that foreign nations were dumping their holdings. The US dollar is on course for its longest losing streak in more than a year. Looming tariffs on the entire pharmaceutical industry will be in focus after JNJ reported better results, mixed guidance.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 312.08 points, or 0.78%, to 40,524.79
• The Nasdaq Composite climbed 107.03 points, or 0.64%, to 16,831.48
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 20.68 points, or 1.11% to 1,880.

• 8:30 AM EST                Empire Fed Manufacturing for April…est. (-14.50) vs. prior (-20.0)
• 8:30 AM EST                Import and Export Prices for March…est. unchanged (vs. +0.4% imports prior)
• 8:55 AM EST                Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 4:30 PM EST API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AREN EQBK FULT HWC IBKR JBHT OMC UAL

• China Q1 GDP, March industrial Output, March Retail Sales

• General Motors (GM) downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Barclays and cut its view on the US auto industry and mobility to negative (downgraded APTV, MBLY and VC to equal-weight from overweight)
• Lowe’s (LOW) announces an agreement to acquire Artisan Design Group, a leading provider of design, distribution and installation services for interior finishes to home builders and property managers in a deal valued at $1.325B.
• PepsiCo (PEP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America.

• In Chemicals, Dow Inc. (DOW) and Air Products (APD) downgraded to Underperform and cut Huntsman (HUN), PPG (PPG) and Green Plains (GPRE) to Neutral from Buy and upgraded Westlake (WLK) and Element Solutions (ESI) to Buy from Neutral and raised DuPont (DD) and Archer Daniels (ADM) to Neutral at Bank America. Hitting reset button on major disruptions as Chemicals/Agriculture coverage is down 15% year-to-date vs 8% for the S&P 500, yet the bulk of the underperformance, ~600bps, has been realized since April 2.
• Hexcel (HXL) and Howmet (HWM) both downgraded at Wells Fargo, turning more cautious on the aerospace sector to reflect impact from a global economic slowdown.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) said it was selected to provide hypersonic test launch capability through development programs in the US and UK.
• Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) will replace Patterson Companies Inc. (PDCO) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, April 17. Patient Square Capital is acquiring Patterson Companies in a deal expected to be completed soon, pending final closing conditions.
• Tullow Oil Plc will sell its oil assets in Kenya for $120 million, after struggling for more than a decade to develop discoveries in the East African nation.

• CNB Financial (CCNE) Q1 adj EPS $0.57 vs. est. $0.58; Q1 revs $56.9M vs. est. $52.34M; Q1 adjusted tangible book value per share $24.98.
• FB Financial (FBK) Q1 adj EPS $0.85 vs est. $0.83 on NII $107.641Mm vs est. $108.7Mm; loans held for investment $9.77B +7.14% yr/yr.
• JPMorgan (JPM) reported charge-offs for March of 1.85% and delinquencies 0.89%.
• Paramount Group (PGRE) is downgraded to underweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley, noting that the San Francisco financial district continues to face demand headwinds.
• PNC (PNC) Q1 EPS $3.51 vs. est. 43.39; Q1 revs $5.45B vs. est. $5.48B; Q1 NIM expanded 3 bps to 2.78%; Q1 Fee income decreased 2% due to a slowdown in capital markets activity and seasonality; Q1 Average deposits decreased $4.6 billion, or 1%; Q1 provision for credit losses $219M

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q1 adj EPS $2.77 tops consensus $2.58 and revs $21.9B above consensus $21.57B; raises qtrly div to $1.30/shr from $1.24/share; cuts FY25 adjusted operational EPS view to $10.50-$10.70 from prior $10.75-$10.95 (est. 10.50); raises FY25 operational sales view to $91.6B-$92.4B from $90.9B-$91.7B and is above consensus $90.29B.

• HP Inc (HPQ) files for notes offering up to $1B due 2030 and 2035.
• Netflix (NFLX) aims to achieve a $1 trillion market capitalization and double its revenue by 2030, ambitious goals that show its growing heft as the largest global streamer. WSJ
• Onsemi (ON) announced that it has terminated its efforts to acquire Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) and withdrawn its all-cash proposal to acquire Allegro for $35.10 per share. While onsemi continues to believe that a combination of these companies would have brought two highly complementary businesses together, benefiting their respective customers and delivering immediate value to Allegro shareholders, onsemi has determined there is no actionable path forward.
• Skillsoft Corp. (SKIL) Q4 adj EPS $2.11 on revs $134Mm vs est. $128.34Mm; guides FY revs $530-545Mm vs est. $539.99Mm and adj EBITDA $112-118Mm vs est. $121.05Mm.