Early Look

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

U.S. futures are lower, tumbling as low as 5,340 for S&P futures (Spuz), the lowest levels since Friday and down more than -2% around 3:00 AM before popping briefly into positive territory after China expressed openness to trade talks with the U.S., but under certain conditions. Beijing wants the Trump administration to show more respect, including curbing disparaging remarks from officials. Additionally, China is seeking a more consistent U.S. stance and action on issues like sanctions and Taiwan. China data overnight showed at 5.4%, China’s GDP’s annual growth in Q-1 exceeded the consensus forecast as solid industrial production and retail sales were drivers, as was the acceleration of exports ahead of the imposition of US tariffs. Nasdaq futures are underperforming, led lower by chip stocks NVDA and ASML, both down over 5%. NVDA shares drop after the company flagged steep charges from new U.S. curbs on chip exports to China, fueling worries about the fallout of an escalating trade war, while ASML shares fall after lower quarterly bookings (though maintained its guidance). In positive trade talk news, President Trump tweeted that Japan is coming in today to negotiate Tariffs. Stock markets are looking to get back on track after ending slightly lower on Tuesday as tariff uncertainty remained high and despite gains in financial stocks after earnings. The S&P 500’s high-to-low range was only 1.18% of the prior day’s close. That’s the smallest reading in the past 13 trading days (compared to last Monday’s session, at 8.11%, which was the widest since the pandemic panic in March 2020, and last Wednesday’s session, at 10.70%, was the biggest since November 2008). In Asian markets overnight, The Nikkei Index declined -347 points to 33,920, the Shanghai Index rose 8 points to 3,276, and the Hang Seng Index tumbled -409 points to 21,056. In Europe, the German DAX is down -105 points to 21,147, while the FTSE 100 slides -30 points to 8,218. The US dollar resumed its decline amid fears over the expanding standoff between the world’s two biggest economies.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -155.83 points, or 0.38%, to 40,368.96
• The Nasdaq Composite slipped -8.32 points, or 0.05%, to 16,823.17
• The Russell 2000 Index edged higher 2.04 points, or 0.11% to 1,882.92

• 8:30 AM EST                Retail Sales M/M for March…est. +1.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM EST                Retail Sales – Less Autos M/M for March…est. +0.3% (prior +0.3%)
• 9:15 AM EST                Industrial Production M/M for March…est. (-0.2%) vs. prior +0.7%
• 9:15 AM EST                Capacity Utilization M/M for March…est. 78.0% (prior 78.2%)
• 10:00 AM EST             Business Inventories M/M for February…est. +0.2% (prior +0.3%)
• 10:00 AM EST NAHB Housing Market Index for April…est. 37 (prior 39)
• 10:30 AM EST              Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 12:00 PM EST              Fed’s Hammack Speaks in Moderated Q&A
• 1:00 PM EST US Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes
• 1:15 PM EST                Fed’s Powell Speaks to Economic Club of Chicago
• 4:00 PM EST                Net Long-term TIC Flows for February

• Earnings After the Close: AA BANR CNS CSX FNB FR GSBC HOMB KMI LBRT MMLP OZK REXR SFNC SLG SNV TFIN

• China Retail sales in March rose by 5.9% year on year, sharply beating analysts’ estimates for a 4.2% growth. Industrial output expanded by 7.7% from a year earlier, versus median estimates of 5.8%.per CNBC.
• Eurozone March CPI (final): rises +0.6% m/m, in-line; and +2.2% y/y which was also in-line; Core y/y +2.4% in-line. UK March CPI rose +0.3% m/m vs 0.4% est. and +2.6% y/y vs 2.7% est.
• realDonaldTrump tweets: “Japan is coming in today to negotiate Tariffs, the cost of military support, and “TRADE FAIRNESS.” I will attend the meeting, along with Treasury & Commerce Secretaries. Hopefully something can be worked out which is good (GREAT!) for Japan and the USA!”
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that he was optimistic about “clarity” on tariffs and progress on key trade deals over the next 90 days, as President Trump simultaneously sought to ramp up pressure on China to come to the negotiating table.

• Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) said it may offer and sell 6.3M shares of common stock by selling stockholders.

• United Airlines (UAL) Q1 adj EPS $0.91 vs. est. $0.74 and revs rose 5.4% y/y to $13.21B vs. est. $13.19B; Q1 passenger revenue rose 4.8% y/y to $11.86B; Q1 Revenue passenger miles +3.6% y/y to 59.52B; forecasts Q2 adj EPS $3.25 to $4.25, vs. est. $3.97 and still forecasts FY adj EPS $11.50-$13.50 if bookings stable while saying under ‘recessionary’ scenario, sees year EPS $7.00-$9.00; guides lower capex below $6.5B vs. prior $7B.
• Russia has asked the U.S. to allow it buy Boeing (BA) aircraft using money from billions of dollars in frozen state assets once there’s a ceasefire in Ukraine, Bloomberg reports.

• Interactive Brokers (IBKR) declares four-for-one forward stock split; raises quarterly dividend to $0.32 from $0.25; reported Q1 adj EPS $1.88 vs. est. $1.91 and revs rose 15% y/y to $1.4B (in-line with consensus); Q1 net interest income (NII) rises 3.1% y/y to $770M (below ests) and total customer accounts 3.62M, +8.4% q/q; Q1 Commission revenue increased 36% to $514M on higher customer trading volumes. Customer trading volume in stocks, options and futures increased 47%, 25% and 16%, respectively.
• Hancock Whitney (HWC) Q1 EPS $1.38 vs. est. $1.29; Q1 net interest margin (NIM) 3.43% vs. 3.32% y/y; Q1 total loans fell -3.6% y/y to $23.10B and total deposits -2% y/y to $29.19B; Q1 provision for loan loss $10.5M vs $13.0M y/y; Q1 ROA was 1.41%, NIM continued to expand, and our efficiency ratio was 55.22%.
• US Bancorp (USB) Q1 EPS $1.03 vs. est. $0.98; Q1 revs $6.96B vs. est. $6.91B; Q1 CET1 capital ratio 10.8%; guides Q2 net interest income (NII) $4.1B to $4.2B and sees FY total net rev +3% to 5% vs. FY 2024 of $27.6B and medium-term target fee income growth mid-single digits.

• iCAD (ICAD) to be acquired by RadNet (RDNT) for $3.61 per share in $103M deal; iCAD stockholders will receive 0.0677 shares of RadNet common stock for each share of iCAD common stock they hold.

• Omnicom (OMC) Q1 adj EPS $1.70 tops consensus $1.66 on revs +1.6% y/y to $3.69B vs. est. $3.72B; Q1 organic revenue growth was 3.4%; Q1 operating profit fell -5.5% y/y to $452.6M; Q1 operating margin 12.3% vs. 13.2% y/y; Q1 Operating expenses increased $86.2M, or 2.7%
• Nvidia (NVDA) did not warn at least some major customers in advance about new U.S. export rules it was told about a week ago requiring it to obtain licenses to sell its China-focused artificial intelligence chip, according to two sources familiar with the matter Reuters reported. NVDA disclosed that American officials had informed the company on April 9 that its H20 chip would require an export license for sales to China as well as for AMD’s MI308 artificial intelligence chips to China. Reuters notes China generated $17B in revenue, or 13% of Nvidia’s total sales, in its last fiscal year.