Early Look

Thursday, April 24, 2025

After back-to-back solid stock market performances (despite major averages finishing well-off their highs on Wednesday), U.S. futures are looking modestly lower ahead of another busy day of earnings and economic data with likely lots of more commentary out of Washington on tariffs/trade talks. Late yesterday, the Financial Times reported that President Trump is planning to exempt US automakers from tariffs on auto parts from China. Overnight, China called for all “unilateral” U.S. tariffs to be cancelled on Thursday, as signs emerged that the Trump administration may de-escalate its trade war with Beijing. China also clarified it has not held trade talks with Washington despite repeated comments from the U.S. government suggesting there had been engagement. Markets turn this morning to a full plate of economic data and more earnings headlines (recapped below). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rises 170 points to 35,039, the Shanghai Index was little changed at 3,297, and the Hang Seng Index fell -162 points to 21,909. In Europe, the German DAX is down -81 points to 21,880, while the FTSE 100 is down -7 points to 8,395.

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks staged a strong rally as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration indicated they will de-escalate a trade war with China and after Trump said he doesn’t intend to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that high tariffs between the United States and China are not sustainable, as Trump’s administration signaled openness to de-escalating a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Trump, meanwhile, told reporters on Tuesday that he has “no intention” of firing Powell, but “I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates.” Traders are also focused on the earnings season, with 110 of the companies in the S&P 500 already having reported. Of those, 75% have beaten Wall Street estimates, according to LSEG.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 419.59 points, or 1.07%, to 39,606.57
• The Nasdaq Composite jumped 407.63 points, or 2.50%, to 16,708.05
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 28.85 points, or 1.53% to 1,919.13

• 8:30 AM EST                Continuing Claims…est. 1.875M
• 8:30 AM EST                Durable Goods Orders M/M for March…est. +0.3%
• 8:30 AM EST                Durable Goods Ex: Transportation for March…est. +0.2%
• 10:00 AM EST              Existing Home Sales M/M for March…est. -3% to 4.13M
• 10:30 AM EST              Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM EST              Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for April…prior +1
• 1:00 PM EST US Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AEM ALEX APPF ASB BY BYD CLS COLB COUR CUBI DLR DOC EHC EMN FBIZ FHI GBCI GILD GLPI GOOGL HIG INTC KN KNSL MGRC MMSI MTX NBTB OCFC PECO PFG RSG SAM SBCF SKX SKYW SLM SPSC SSB SSNC TBBK TMUS ULH VALE VRSN WSFS WY

• Tesla’s (TSLA) new car sales in Europe dropped 28.2% in March from a year earlier, even as overall battery electric vehicle sales rose 23.6% in the month, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA); total new car sales in Europe rose 2.8% in the month.
• Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares slip; Q1 adj EPS $0.29 vs. est. $0.28; Q1 revs $2.9B vs. est. $2.94B; Q1 comp restaurant sales decreased (-0.4%) vs. est. +1.75%; cuts FY25 comparable restaurant sales growth view to low single digits from prior view of low to mid-single digits growth; outlook FY 315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over 80% having a Chipotlane; says transaction slowdown trend persisted into April.
• Churchill Downs (CHDN) Q1 adj EPS $1.07 vs est. $1.01, adj EBITDA $245.1Mm vs est. $243.96Mm on revs $642.6Mm vs est. $640.64Mm.
• Jack in the Box (JACK) confirms exploring strategic alternatives for Del Taco brand; will accelerate cash flow by selling a select number of owned real estate holdings, and direct proceeds towards debt paydown/leverage reduction; Jack in the Box will discontinue its dividend effective immediately.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Q1 adj property EBITDA $1.14B vs est. $1.087B on revs $2.86B vs est. $2.91B; Macau adj property EBITDA $535Mm; drops out of the New York downstate casino race.
• O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Q1 EPS $9.35 vs. est. $9.86; Q1 revenue $4.13B vs. est. $4.17B; posted Q1 comparable store sales increase of +3.6%, which was at the high end of expectations for the quarter; sees FY25 EPS $42.90-$43.40 vs. est. $44.39 and sees FY25 revenue $17.4B-$17.7B vs. est. $17.66B.
• PepsiCo (PEP) Q1 core EPS $1.48 vs. est. $1.49; Q1 revs $17.92B vs. est. $17.73B; still sees 2025 organic revenue up low-single digits; cuts 2025 core constant-currency EPS roughly flat; had seen up mid-single digits; actively planning mitigation actions to address higher supply-chain costs where possible.
• Rollins (ROL) Q1 adj EPS $0.22 vs est. $0.22, adj EBITDA $172Mm vs est. $173.7Mm on revs $823Mm vs est. $816.7Mm.
• Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) Q1 adj EPS $1.70 vs. est. $1.67; Q1 revs $3.62B vs. est. $3.67B; backs FY25 adjusted EPS ~$10.00 (est. $9.98) and revs ~$15.8B vs. est. $15.76B; says expect new tariff policies to level the playing field, better supporting American manufacturing.
• Sportradar (SRAD) 23M share Secondary priced at $22.50.

• Matador Resources (MTDR) Q1 adj EPS $1.99 vs. est. $1.78; Q1 revs $1.01B vs. est. $956.57M; announces $400M share repurchase program and adjustment in drilling activity; Q1 average oil production increased 36% to approximately 115,030 barrels of oil per day from 84,777 barrels of oil per day y/y; sees FY25 production 198,000-202,000 BOE per day and sees FY25 total CapEx $1.3B-$1.55B.

• Columbia Banking System (COLB) and Pacific Premier Bancorp (PPBI) jointly announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement, pursuant to which Columbia will acquire Pacific Premier in an all-stock transaction. The combined company will have approximately $70B in assets.
• Discover Financial (DFS) Q1 EPS $4.25 vs. est. $3.30; Q1 revs $4.25B vs. est. $4.21B; Total loans ended the quarter at $117.4 billion, down 7% y/y as a result of the student loan sale, and down 3% sequentially due to seasonal trends.
• Robert Half (RHI) Q1 EPS $0.17 vs est. $0.36 on revs $1.35B vs est. $1.408B.
• United Rentals (URI) Q1 adj EPS $8.86 vs est. $8.83 on revs $3.719B vs est. $3.602B; reaffirms FY guide, sees revs $15.6-16.1B vs est. $15.794B, adj EBITDA $7.2-7.45B vs est. $7.273B.
• Western Union (WU) Q1 adj EPS $0.41, in-line with consensus and revs fell -6% y/y to $983.6M vs. est. $991.38M driven by lower contribution from Iraq compared to prior-yr period, which negatively impacted rev growth rate by 6 percentage points; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $1.75-$1.85 vs. est. $1.78 and sees FY25 adjusted revenue $4.115B-$4.215B vs. est. $4.15B.

• Merck (MRK) Q1 adj EPS $2.22 vs. est. $2.14; Q1 revs $15.5B vs. est. $15.33B; cuts FY25 adjusted EPS view to $8.82-$8.97 from $8.88-$9.03 (est. $8.94), while backs FY25 revenue $64.1B-$65.6B (est. $65.01B); says outlook revised to reflect negative impact from anticipated one-time charge of approximately 6c per share related to license agreement with Hengrui Pharma.
• Molina Healthcare (MOH) Q1 adj EPS $6.08 vs est. $5.96 on revs $11.15B vs est. $10.806B; guides FY premium revs approx $42B (no change vs prior) and reaffirms FY adj EPS at least $24.50 vs est. $24.41.
• Penumbra (PEN) Q1 adj EPS $0.83 vs est. $0.66 on revs $324.14Mm vs est. $315.7Mm; guides FY revs $1.34-1.36B vs est. $1.352B, gr mgn expansion at least 100bps, op mgn expansion to 13-14%.
• ResMed Corp. (RMD) Q3 adj EPS $2.37 vs est. $%2.36 on revs $1.3B vs est. $1.286B, adj gr mgn 59.9%.
• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.41) vs. est. loss (-$0.31); phase 3 Trials for Subcutaneous VK2735 expected to begin 2Q25; phase 2 VENTURE-Oral dosing trial in obesity fully enrolled; data expected 2H25; broad manufacturing agreement with CordenPharma to support future commercialization of VK2735.

• Carlisle Companies (CSL) Q1 adj EPS $3.61 vs est. $3.42 on revs $1.1B vs est. $1.089B, says tariffs should have minimal impact on Q2, reaffirming FY outlook for revs +mid-single-digit vs est. +4.25%.
• Dow Inc. (DOW) Q1 EPS $0.02 vs. est. loss (-$0.01); Q1 revenue $10.43B vs. est. $10.26B; said to delay construction of Path2Zero project in Fort Saskatchewan; said Q1 hurt by lower prices and higher energy and feedstock costs, and said it is expanding the review of its European assets.
• Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Q1 adj EPS $1.44 vs est. $0.61 on revs $777Mm vs est. $800Mm; sees FY adj EBITDA +5-10% vs est. +12.75%.
• Newmont Mining (NEM) Q1 adj EPS $1.25 topping consensus $0.91; Q1 adjusted net income $1.4B vs. est. $1.0B; qtrly gold AISC per ounce increased 13% to $1,651 per ounce compared to prior qtr primarily due to higher case per ounce as expected.
• Reliance Steel (RS) Q1 adj EPS $3.77 vs est. $3.66 on revs $3.48B vs est. $3.445B, adj gr mgn 29.7%; says anticipates Q2 demand will remain stable across the diversified markets it serves; estimates tons sold in Q2 will be -1% to +1% sequentially.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) announced it has been selected by Kratos to launch a full-scale hypersonic test flight for the Department of Defense under the Multi-Service Advanced Capability Hypersonic Test Bed 2.0 program
• Southwest Airlines (LUV) Q1 adj EPS ($0.13) vs est. ($0.18) on revs $6.4B vs est. $6.403B; guides Q2 RASM flat to down 4% and CASM-X up 3.5 to 5.5%, sees Q2 ASM +1-2%, says proactively reducing capacity in 2H25, not reiterating its full year 2025 or 2026 EBIT guidance.
• Waste Connections (WCN) Q1 adj EPS $1.13 vs. est. $1.08; Q1 revs rose 7.5% y/y to $2.23B vs. est. $2.22B; Better than expected financial results from price-led organic solid waste growth and continued acquisition activity provide strong start to 2025.

• Lam Research (LRCX) Q3 adj EPS $1.04 vs est. $1.01 on revs $4.72B vs est. $4.646B; guides Q4 adj EPS $1.10-1.30 vs est. $0.98 and revs $4.7-5.3B vs est. $4.594B.
• ServiceNow (NOW) Q1 adj EPS $4.04 vs est. $3.83 on revs $3.088B vs est. $3.084B, subscription revs $3.005B; guides Q2 subscription revs $3.03-3.04B and FY subscription revs $12.64-12.68B; ServiceNow and Aptiv (APTV) announced a strategic partnership focused on driving intelligent automation and operational resilience across telco, automative, enterprise, and industrial sectors.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Q1 EPS $1.28 tops consensus $1.06 and revs $4.07B, consensus $3.91B; sees Q2 EPS $1.21-$1.47 vs. est. $1.20 and sees Q2 revenue $4.17B-$4.53B vs. est. $4.12B; Q1 Analog revenue $3.21B, +13% y/y, coming in slightly above consensus.
• Impinj (PI) Q1 adj EPS $0.21 vs est. $0.08, adj EBITDA $6.5Mm vs est. $2.478Mm on revs $74.277Mm vs est. $71.7Mm; guides Q2 revs $91-96Mm vs est. $93.32Mm, adj EBITDA $23.5-26Mm vs est. $21.38Mm and adj EPS $0.68-0.76 vs est. $0.59.
• STMicroelectronics (STM) forecast revenue of $2.71B in Q2, 16.2% lower than last year but above analysts’ expectations of $2.62 billion. The outlook does not factor in any impact from potential further changes to global trade policies; Q1 revenue was $2.52B, in line with STMicro’s own forecast and analysts’ estimates.
• Tyler Technologies (TYL) Q1 adj EPS $2.78 vs est. $2.55 on revs $565.2Mm vs est. $556.9Mm; guides FY adj EPS $11.05-11.35 vs est. $11.00 and revs $2.31-2.35B vs est. $2.323B.
• Alibaba (BABA), Tencent (TCEHY) and ByteDance asked Nvidia (NVDA) to ship about 1M H20 chips, ideally by the end of May, but the actual number delivered fell short due to new U.S. curbs – Nikkei reports.