Early Look

Monday, April 28, 2025

U.S. stock futures are looking modestly lower to kick off the very busy trading week where roughly 180 of S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly results, including 4 names in the so called “Mag7” tech space including, Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (META). Earnings season has so far has been somewhat upbeat, with S&P 500 earnings now expected to climb 9.7% in the first quarter from a year ago, higher than an April 1 estimate for an 8% gain, according to LSEG IBES. Of the 179 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for the first quarter, 72.6% have reported earnings above expectations, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. While the results have been better, guidance has been “iffy’ (or withdrawn in several cases) as many companies have flagged the uncertainty caused by new tariffs. Speaking of tariffs, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to speak on CNBC this morning at 8:00 am. In geopolitical news, the Financial Times reported the US and Ukraine inch closer to signing minerals deal. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 134 points to 35,839, the Shanghai Index fell -6 points to 3,288, and the Hang Seng Index slipped -8 points to 21,971. In Europe, the German DAX gains 144 points to 22,387, while the FTSE 100 rises 26 points to 8,441.

How quickly the market narrative of gloom and doom has switched so suddenly, without any real new developments on trade/tariffs to this point as @scottcharts tweeted this weekend, “After being down more than 13% at one point, the S&P 500 is down just 1.54% in April. If it can turn it positive, it will be the largest monthly reversal (to end positive) ever.  The prior record? March 2009, which saw the index down 9.3% before ending the month higher by 8.5%.” Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding the timing of trade talks and the implementation of Trump’s tariffs has whipsawed stock markets. The Dow last week closed up 971 points, or 2.5% in its largest one-week point and percentage gain since the week ending April 11, but the Dow is off 5% since Trump announced his broad-based tariffs on April 2, and is down 5.7% so far this year. On Friday, major indexes logged their fourth-straight positive sessions, though just barely in some instances and for the week, the S&P 500 gained 4.59%, the Nasdaq climbed 6.73%.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 20.10 points, or 0.05%, to 40,113.50
• The Nasdaq Composite jumped 216.90 points, or 1.26%, to 17,382.94
• The Russell 2000 Index was little changed up 0.03 points, or 0.03% to 1,957.62

• Earnings After the Close: ABCB ALRS AMKR ARE BRO BYON CCK CDNS CDP CINF CNO CR CVI EZPW FFIV FISI FSUN HLIT KFRC LEG MED NE NOV NTST NWBI NXPI PCH RBB RIG RMBS SANM SBAC SEI SSD TER TWO UAN UCTT UFPI UHS WELL WM WWD

• RSA Conference 20205, 4/28-5/1, in San Francisco, CA

• Canadians are heading to the polls to elect a new government on Monday. The general elections appeared to have flipped decisively in favor of the incumbent Liberal Party, led by former BOC and BOE Governor Mark Carney.
• South Korea Vice Industry Minister Park Sung-Taek said he sees no chance of clinching a comprehensive trade agreement with the US before a presidential election on June 3, citing the complexity of the issues involved and political uncertainties.

• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) Q1 EPS $4.33 tops consensus $4.07; Q1 revs $1.11B vs. est. $1.12B; Q1 U.S. same store sales declined 0.5% vs. est. +0.23%; Q1 International same-store sales grew 3.7%, ahead of analyst estimates of 1.93% growth.
• Hyatt (H) announced that HI Holdings Playa, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Hyatt, has extended the offering period of its cash tender offer to purchase all of the outstanding ordinary shares of Playa Hotels & Resorts (PLYA) for $13.50 per share in cash.
• Peloton (PTON) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist with an unchanged price target of $11.

• Boeing (BA) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein and raise tgt to $218 from $181 saying the airplane maker is now making the progress it needed for the growth trajectory expected before the Alaska door plug accident in January 2024.
• Chevron Corp. (CVX) mentioned positively in Barron’s saying shares have been beaten down on concern that oil prices will fall as trade wars curb economic growth, just as OPEC plans to boost production. That opens an opportunity for investors, Barron’s writes in its April 26 issue.

• Merck KGaA (MKKGY) has struck a deal to buy U.S. biotech company SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX) for an equity value of $3.9 billion, as the German company seeks to acquire treatments for rare tumors to boost its cancer drugs business; Merck will pay $47 per share in cash (confirms WSJ story on Friday).

• Nvidia (NVDA) shares slip on a report that Huawei Technologies has developed a new chip called the Ascend 910D, hoping it would be more powerful than Nvidia’s H100.