Early Look

Thursday, April 29, 2021

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	178.00	0.53%	33,902
S&P 500	30.25	0.72%	4,206
Nasdaq	138.00	0.99%	14,030

 

 

Major averages are looking sharply higher (new record highs yet again), with S&P futures rising 0.7% to trade above the 4,200 level, led by big tech earnings overnight (FB, AAPL both rise on results) and ahead of GDP data later today, while President Biden also delivered an address to Congress last night, unveiling his $1.8T “American Families Plan.” The President said taxes for the richest 1% of Americans would be raised to help pay for his plan (widely anticipated and telegraphed). Thursday is also the busiest day of the earnings season, with roughly 11% of the S&P 500 set to report Q1 results, with Amazon, Merck, Caterpillar and McDonald’s among them. Stocks touched intraday highs on Wednesday, jumping mid-afternoon after the Fed held steady on interest rates and its monthly bond buyback programs, but ended mixed in a bout of late day profit taking. The Fed gave no sign it was ready to reduce its support for the recovery as the Fed repeated the guidance it has used since December, saying it must see “substantial further progress” towards its inflation and employment goals before stepping back from its monthly bond purchases. Earlier in the session, the S&P 500 hit an intra-day record high, led by gains in Google parent Alphabet Inc. which jumped about 4% after reporting a record profit for the second consecutive quarter and announcing a $50 billion share buyback, helping send the S&P 500 communication services sector, which includes the company, to record highs. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 62 points to 29,053, the Shanghai Index rose 17 points to 3,474, and the Hang Seng Index gained 231 points to 29,303. In Europe, the German DAX is down about -50 points to 15,235, while the FTSE 100 is up over 40 points topping the 7,000 level.

Events Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET         Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 549K

·     8:30 AM EST      Continuing Claims…est. 3.614M

·     8:30 AM EST      Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Advance Q1…est. 6.1%

·     8:30 AM EST      GDP Consumer Spending for Q1…est.

·     8:30 AM EST      GDP Price Deflator, for Q1…est. 2.5%

·     8:30 AM EST      Core PCE for Q1…est. 2.4%

·     10:00 AM EST    Pending Home Sales MoM for March…est. 5.0%

·     10:30 AM ET      Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: AB, ABMD, ADS, AGCO, AGIO, ALNY, AMT, AOS, ATI, ATKR, BAX, BC, BGCP, BLMN, BMY, BTU, CARR, CAT, CBRE, CBZ, CFR, CFX, CHD, CMCSA, CMS, CNX, COHU, COOP, COWN, CRS, CTXS, DPZ, EEFT, EME, FCN, FLWS, GNRC, GPI, HGV, HSY, ICE, IP, KBR, KDP, KEX, KHC, KIM, LH, MA, MCD, MDC, MHK, MMP, MO, MRK, MTRN, NEM, NOC, ONEW, OSTK, PATK, PCG, PLY, PBF, PH, PPC, PTEN, RLGY, SAH, SNDR, SO, SPGI, SRCL, STRA, TAP, TFX, TMO, TPX, TREE, TROW, TW, TXT, VC, VLY, WAB, WEX, WST, XEL

·     Earnings After the Close: ACHC, AIRC, AJG, ALEX, AMZN, ASPN, BIO, BMRN, Y, BZH, CASA, COG, COLM, CPT, CRUS, CRY, CSLT, CUBE, CUZ, CVA, CXP, DLR, DXCM, EBS, EHTH, EMN, ENVA, ETH, FBHS, FIVN, FSLR, FTNT, FTV, FWRD, GHL, GILD, GLPI, GNW, HAYN, HP, KLAC, LLNW, LTRX, MATW, MDRX, MGNX, MSTR, NATI, NDLS, NPTN, OMCL, PACB, PEB, PFPT, POWI, RMD, SGEN, SKYW, SM, SWKS, SWN, TACO, TEX, TRUP, TWTR, TXRH, USAK, VCRA, VRTX, WDC, WSC, X, ZEN

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index slipped -3.54 points, or 0.08%, to 4,183.18

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -164.55 points, or 0.48%, to 33,820.38

·     The Nasdaq Composite dropped -39.19 points, or 0.28%, to 14,051.03

·     The Russell 2000 Index gained 2.89 points, or 0.13% to 2,304.16

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.93	64.79
Brent	1.00	68.27
Gold	-7.00	1,774.60
EUR/USD	-0.0005	1.2121
JPY/USD	0.40	109.00
10-Year Note	+0.034	1.654%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Big Tech

·     Apple Inc. (AAPL) Q1 EPS $1.40 vs. est. 99c; Q1 revs $89.58B vs. est. $77.3B; international sales accounted for 67% of quarter’s revenue; authorized an increase of $90 bln to existing share repurchase program; said Q1 greater china revenue $17.73 bln vs $9.46 bln last year; Q1 iPhone revenue $47.94 bln vs $28.96 bln last year, iPad revenue $7.81 bln vs $4.37 bln last year, Mac revenue $9.1 bln vs $5.35 bln last year, services revenue $16.9 bln vs $13.35 bln last year and wearables, home and accessories revenue $7.84 bln vs $6.28 bln last year; hit 660 million paid subscribers on platform in fiscal q2, up from 620 million in fiscal q1

·     Facebook (FB) Q1 EPS $3.30 vs. est. $2.37; Q1 revenue $26.17B vs. est. $23.67B; expect q2 2021 year-over-year total revenue growth to remain stable or modestly accelerate relative to growth rate in q1 of 2021; Q1 DAUs were 1.88 bln on average for march 2021, an increase of 8% YoY and MAUs were 2.85 bln as of march 31, 2021, an increase of 10% YoY; in q3, q4 2021, expect year-over-year total revenue growth rates to significantly decelerate sequentially; continue to expect increased ad targeting headwinds in 2021 from regulatory and platform changes, notably recently-launched IOS 14.5 update

 

Consumer

·     Ford Motors (F) 1Q revs $36.2B vs. est. $32.23B, 1Q adj EPS $0.89 vs. est. $0.21; sees FY adj EBIT $5.5-6.5B vs. est. $6.82B; says now plans to lose about 50% of planned 2Q production to account for semiconductor shortage, implies 2Q will be trough of the issue, now assumes will lose 10% of planned 2H production; says expects 100% of passenger vehicles to be all-electric and 2/3 of commercial to be all-electric/plug-in hybrids in Europe by 2030

·     Carnival (CCL), Norwegian (NCLH): The CDC said cruise operations could begin again in the U.S. by mid-July and can proceed to passenger sailings without test cruises if they can assure 98% of crew and 95% of passengers are fully vaccinated – WSJ https://on.wsj.com/3eDcE4t

·     Generac (GNRC) 1Q adj EPS $2.38 vs. est. $1.87 on sales $807Mm vs. est. $729.3Mm; guides FY sales +40-45% vs est +29.9% and prior guide of +25-30%;

·     Century Communities (CCS) 1Q EPS $3.00 vs. est. $1.60 on revs $1.0B vs. est. $802.45Mm; sees FY revs $3.7-4.0B vs. est. $3.72B, sees FY home deliveries of 10,750-11,750

·     Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q1 EPS loss (3c) vs. est. loss (6c); Q1 revenue $627.4M vs. est. $604.21M; Q1 comp sales increased 2.8% year-over-year, while relative to the first quarter of fiscal 2019, comparable restaurant sales at The Cheesecake Factory restaurants declined 10.4%

·     Endeavor Group Holdings (EDR) 21.3M share IPO priced at $24.00

·     MGM Resorts (MGM) Q1 adj EPS loss (68c) vs. est. loss (85c); Q1 revenue $1.65B vs. est. $1.59B; total liquidity at March 31, 2021 was $9.7B, which included $1.5 billion at the MGP Operating Partnership and $1.8B at MGM China; Table Games Hold Adjusted Las Vegas Strip Resorts Net Revenues of $544M, a decrease of 52% compared to the prior year quarter; adjusted Property EBITDAR of $108M compared to $268M in the prior year quarter, a 60% decline

·     O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) 1Q EPS $7.06 vs. est. $5.47 on sales $614Mm, comps +24.8%; guides FY EPS $24.75-24.95 vs est $23.79, sees FY revs $11.8-12.1B vs. est $11.86B, sees FY comps +1-3%

·     Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) 1Q adj EPS $0.42 vs est. $0.35 on sales $3.27B vs est. $3.24B, says during qtr experienced reduction in volume of exports to China; says anticipates stronger results as covid restrictions gradually lifted throughout 2021

·     2U Inc. (TWOU) 1Q adj EPS ($0.12) vs. est. ($0.23) on revs $232.5Mm vs. est. $219.5Mm; guides FY revs $925-955Mm vs. est. $932Mm, sees FY adj EBITDA $55-65Mm vs. est. $55.9Mm

·     Wyndham Hotels (WH) 1Q adj EPS $0.36 vs. est. $0.25 on revs $303Mm vs. est. $333.3Mm, qtrly global RevPAR -11%; not offering complete FY outlook given RevPAR uncertainties, sees FY net rooms +1-2%, says every point of RevPAR change vs 202 now expected to generate about $2.8Mm adj EBITDA in 2021 vs 2020

 

Energy

·     Antero Resources (AR) Q1 adj EPS 62c vs. est. 54c; Q1 revenue $1.32B vs. est. $1.21B; Q1 net production averaged 3,322 MMcfe/d, including 170,000 Bbl/d of liquids;

·     Continental Resources (CLR) Q1 adj EPS 77c vs. est. 44c; Q1 revenue $1.22B vs. est. $1.05B; reinstates dividend of 11c and accelerates shareholder returns; accelerating projected debt reduction to below $4.0 bln by year-end 2021; projecting approximately 12% return on capital employed in 2021; q1 2021 total production averaged 307.9 mboepd

·     Matador (MTDR) Q1 adj EPS 71c vs. est. 42c; Q1 oil and natural gas revenues $316.2M, third-party midstream services revenues $15.4M vs. est. $268.03M; Q1 weighted average realized oil and natural gas prices, excluding hedging impacts, were $57.05 per barrel and $5.88 per thousand cubic feet, sequential increases of 39% and 98%, respectively, from $40.99 per barrel and $2.97 per thousand cubic feet in Q4

·     Murphy USA (MUSA) Q1 EPS $2.01 vs. est. $1.47; Q1 revenue $3.54B vs. est. $3.4B; said total retail gallons decreased 4.2% in Q1 compared to Q1 2020, while volumes on a same store sales basis decreased 10.1%

·     Nabors (NBR) Q1 continuing ops EPS loss ($20.16) vs. est. loss ($21.42); Q1 revenue $461M vs. est. $452.57M

 

Financials

·     Aflac (AFL) 1Q adj EPS $1.53 vs est $1.21 on revs $5.9B vs est $5.54B

·     AvalonBay (AVB) Q1 core FFO $1.95 vs. est. $1.94; total revenue decreased $50.38M, or 9.1%, to $502.26M; residential revenue decreased $49.57M, or 9.1%, to $497.44M, with uncollectible lease revenue contributing $12.43M of this decrease

·     OneMain (OMF) announces offering of 8M shares of common stock for holders

·     Public Storage (PSA) Q1 FFO $2.82 vs. est. $2.70; Q1 revenue $647.8M vs. est. $731.88M; Increased same store direct net operating income by 6.5%, resulting from a 3.4% increase in same store revenues and a 5.7% decrease in same store direct cost of operations. Same store cost of operations was positively impacted by the timing of property tax expense; achieved a 76.5% same store direct net operating income margin

 

Healthcare

·     Merck (MRK) Q1 adj EPS $1.40 vs. est. $1.63; Q1 revenue $12.1B vs. est. $12.66B; backs FY21 adjusted EPS view of $6.48-$6.68 and also revenue of $51.8B-$53.8B (est. $52.51B); with respect to covid-19 pandemic, estimated negative impact to Merck’s first qtr pharmaceutical revenue was approximately $600 million; estimates pandemic will have net unfavorable impact to 2021 revenues of about 3%, all of which relates to pharmaceutical segment

·     Aldeyra (ALDX) 10M share Secondary priced at $12.50

·     Aveanna (AVAH) 38.2M share IPO priced at $12.00

·     Privia Health (PRVA) 19.5M share IPO priced at $23.00

·     Align Technology (ALGN) Q1 EPS $2.49 vs. est. $2.02; Q1 revenue $894.8M vs. est. $818.16M; Q1 Clear Aligner revenues up 7.5% sequentially and 56.4% YoY to a record $753.3M; Q1 Clear Aligner volume up 4.9% sequentially and 65.8% YoY to 595.8 thousand cases; sees year revs $3.7B-$3.9B; to buy back up to $100M in shares

·     Community Health (CYH) Q1 EPS 36c vs. est. loss (15c); Q1 revenue $3.01B vs. est. $2.96B; said consolidated operating results for the three months ended March 31, 2021, reflect a 14.0% decrease in admissions and a 15.8% decrease in adjusted admissions, compared with the same period in 2020

·     Hologic (HOLX) Q2 adj EPS $2.59 vs. est. $2.62; Q2 revenue $1.538B vs. est. $1.54B; sees Q3 adj EPS $1.00-$1.15 below est. $1.83; sees Q3 revenue $1B-$1.07B vs. est. $1.29B.

·     ICON Plc (ICLR) Q1 EPS $2.06 vs. est. $1.97; Q1 revenue $858.2M vs. est. $787.38M; raises Fy21 EPS view to $8.40-$8.80 from $8.10-$8.50 (est. $8.25) and boosts FY21 revenue view to $3.4B-$3.5B from $3.2B-$3.3B (est. $3.24B)

·     Molina Health (MOH) Q1 adj EPS $4.44 vs. est. $3.68; Q1 revenue $6.5B vs. est. $6.06B; raises FY21 adjusted EPS view to at least $13 vs. est. $12.93 and vs. prior view of $12.50-$13.00; now expects its full year 2021 premium revenue to be more than $24.0 billion, compared to the previous guidance of more than $23.0 billion, an increase of over 30% from the full year 2020

·     Teledoc (TDOC) 1Q EPS ($1.31) vs. est. ($0.62) on revs $453.7Mm vs. est. $451.9Mm; guides 2Q revs $495-505Mm vs est. $486.2Mm, sees 2Q adj EBITDA $61-64Mm vs. est. $61.7Mm; guides FY revs $1.97-2.02B vs. est. $1.99B, sees FY adj EBITDA $225-275Mm vs. est. $264.3Mm

·     Xencor (XNCR) announces that the first subject has been dosed in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 1 clinical study of XmAb564, an engineered IL-2-Fc cytokine in development as a potential treatment for patients with autoimmune diseases.

 

Industrials & Materials

·     Caterpillar (CAT) Q1 adj EPS $2.87 vs. est. $1.94; Q1 revenue $11.89B vs. est. $11.09B; said enterprise operating cash flow was $1.9B;

·     Carrier Global (CARR) 1Q adj EPS $0.48 vs est $0.37 on sales $4.7B vs est $4.37B; guides FY sales +7-10% vs est +8% (sees organic sales +5-8%; sees FY adj EPS $1.95-2.05 vs est $1.94

·     Hydrofarm (HYFM) 4.806M share Secondary priced at $59.00

·     PQ Group (PQG) 12.5M share Secondary priced at $14.00

·     Textron (TXT) Q1 adj EPS 70c vs. est. 47c; Q1 revenue $2.88B vs. est. $2.73B; raises FY21 adjusted EPS view to $2.80-$3.00 from $2.70-$2.90

·     Coeur Mining (CDE) 1Q adj EPS $0.06 vs est$0.08 on revs $202.1Mm vs. est. $207Mm, metal sales totaled 83,112 ounces of gold and 2.4Mm ounces of silver in qtr, produced 82,225 ounces gold and 2.4Mm ounces silver in qtr; reaffirms FY guide

·     Echo Global (ECHO) 1Q adj EPS $0.61 vs. est. $0.47 on revs $800.8Mm vs. est. $729.3Mm; guides 2Q revs $830-870Mm vs. est. $725.9Mm, sees FY revs $3.15-3.35B vs. est. $2.9B

·     Element Solutions (ESI) Q1 adj EPS 37c vs. est. 31c; Q1 sales rose 22% to $550M vs. est. $505.3M; increasing full year 2021 guidance for adjusted Ebitda to a range of $500M-$510M; introducing Q2 2021 adjusted Ebitda guidance of $125 mln to $130 mln

·     Owens Illinois (OI) Q1 adj EPS 35c on sales $1.5B down 3.9% YoY vs. est. 30c and $1.46B

·     Ingersoll Rand (IR) Q1 adj EPS 45c vs. est. 35c; Q1 revs $1.4B vs. est. $1.31B; raising full-year 2021 revenue growth expectation, excluding SVT, to low double digits; raising 2021 adjusted Ebitda guidance, excluding SVT, to $1.12 bln to $1.15 bln

·     United Rentals (URI) 1Q adj EPS $3.45 vs. est. $3.07 on revs $$2.057B vs. est. $1.99B, sees FY revs $9.05-9.45B vs. est. $8.88B, sees FY adj EBITDA $4.1-4.3B vs. est. $4.1B

·     Valvoline (VVV) 2Q adj EPS $0.46 vs. est. $0.37 on revs $701Mm vs. est. $658.3Mm; guides FY adj EBITDA $590-610Mm vs. est. $568.2Mm, sees FY adj EPS $1.72-1.82 vs. est. $1.65

·     Werner Enterprises (WERN) 1Q adj EPS $0.68 vs. est. $0.63 on revs $616.4Mm vs est. $610.1Mm

 

Media & Telecom

·     Altice USA (ATUS) 1Q EPS $0.58 vs. est. $0.31 on revs $2.48B vs. est. $2.48B, says total unique residential customer relationships +1.7% yr/yr in 1Q, reits outlook for FY

·     Dish (DISH) Q1 EPS 99c vs. est. 81c; Q1 revenue $4.5B vs. est. $4.37B; Q1 net Pay-TV subscribers decreased approximately 230K compared to a net decrease of approximately 413K YoY; retail wireless net subscribers decreased by approximately 161K in Q1, compared to a net decrease of 363K in Q4; ends quarter with 11.06M Pay-TV subscribers, including 8.69M DISH TV subscribers and 2.37M SLING TV subscribers

·     Equinix (EQIX) Q1 adj FFO $6.98 vs. est. $6.63; Q1 revenue $1.6B vs. est. $1.6B; sees Q2 revenue $1.63B-$1.66B vs. est. $1.63B; narrows FY21 adjusted FFO view to $26.73-$27.28 from $26.72-$27.28 (est. $27.14) and also narrows FY21 revenue view to$6.56B-$6.62B from $6.58B-$6.64B; said sees FY21 non-recurring Capex $2.13B-$2.32B

·     Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) is exploring a sale of its media assets including Yahoo and AOL, according to people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported. The sales process, which includes private-equity firm Apollo Global Management Inc., could yield a price of $4 billion to $5 billion, the people said, assuming there is a deal.

 

Technology

·     Aspen technology (AZPN) 3Q adj EPS $1.05 vs. est. $1.11 on revs $162.7Mm vs. est. $169.4Mm; guides FY revs $705-729Mm vs. est. $745.3Mm, sees FY adj EPS $4.98-5.22 vs. est. $5.45

·     Brightcove (BCOV) 1Q EPS $0.12 vs. est. $0.10 on revs $54.8Mm vs. est. $53.5Mm; guides 2Qrevs $49.5-50.5Mm vs. est. $51.4Mm, see 2Q adj EPS $0.02-0.04 vs. est. $0.10; guides FY revs $211-217Mm vs. est. $215.3Mm, sees FY adj EPS $0.43-0.54 vs. est. $0.50

·     Cree Inc. (CREE) 3Q adj EPS ($0.22) vs est. ($0.23) on revs $137.3Mm vs est. $130.2Mm; guides 4Q revs $142-148Mm vs est. $138.4Mm, sees 4Q EPS loss $0.22-0.26 vs est. loss $0.21

·     eBay Inc. (EBAY) Q1 adj EPS $1.09 vs. est. $1.06; Q1 net revenue $3.02B +27% y/y vs. est. $2.97B; said Q1 gross merchandise volume $27.46 billion, +29% y/y, and active buyers rose 7% to 187 million; sees Q2 adj EPS 91c-96c vs. est. $1.02; sees Q2 revenue $2.98B-$3.03B vs. est. $2.93B

·     Impinj Inc. (PI) 1Q adj EPS $0.01 vs est. ($0.12) on revs $45.2Mm vs est. $42.1Mm; sees 2Q revs $41.5-43.5Mm vs est. $42.5Mm, sees adj EPS loss $0.02-0.08 vs est. loss/shr $0.08

·     Pegasystems (PEGA) adjusted eps 26c vs. 5c y/y, vs. estimate 9.0c and Q1 revenue $313.5 million, +18% y/y, estimate $306.5 million

·     PTC Inc. (PTC) 2Q adj EPS $1.08 vs est. $0.70 on revs $462Mm vs est. $416.2Mm; guides FY adj EPS $3.18-3.39 vs est. $3.17, sees FY revs $1.71-1.74B vs est. $1.71B

·     Service Now Inc. (NOW) Q1 adjusted eps $1.52 vs. $1.05 y/y, estimate $1.34; Q1 revenue $1.36 billion, +30% y/y, vs. est. $1.34 billion; Q1 subscription rev. $1.29 billion, billings growth +30% vs. +29.0% y/y, and free cash flow $627 million

·     Qualcomm (QCOM) 2Q adj EPS $1.90 vs. est. $1.67 on revs $7.94B vs. est. $7.6B; guides 3Q revs $7.1-7.9B vs. est. $7.1B, sees 3Q adj EPS $1.55-1.75 vs. est. $1.52

·     Ultra Clean (UCTT) Q1 adj EPS 92c vs. est. 85c; Q1 revenue $417.6M vs. est. $392.47M; sees Q2 adj EPS 90c-$1.03 vs. est. 90c; sees Q2 revenue $490M-$520M vs. est. $435.6M