Early Look

Friday, April 30, 2021

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-143.00	0.42%	33,808
S&P 500	-23.25	0.55%	4,180
Nasdaq	-108.50	0.77%	13,845

 

 

U.S. stock futures are edging slightly lower on the final day of trading this week, pulling back from record highs in the S&P 500 as quarterly earnings and economic data have been generally well received, but weaker Chinese PMI data overnight hit Asian markets. Amazon (AMZN) became the latest mega tech giant to crush quarterly estimates (shares looking higher by 2%), joining massive blowouts from the likes of AAPL, FB, GOOGL and MSFT this week, but stock reactions have been mixed despite easily surpassing analyst estimates. Economic data plentiful on Friday with personal income, spending and sentiment, looking to add to the strong GDP reading and jobless claims data seen Thursday. The Federal Reserve, behind its reiteration that any increases in inflation are likely to be transitory, and that they will continue to provide accommodative policy to help the economy (markets) also supported market sentiment this week, along with another stimulus plan proposal from the White House. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dropped -241 points to 28,812, the Shanghai Index dropped -28 points to 3,446 and the Hang Seng Index plunged -578 points to 28,724. In Europe, the German DAX is up over 35 points to 15,190, while the FTSE 100 is down a few points at 6,950. Stocks finished higher again on Thursday as upbeat economic news and another round of strong earnings results (AAPL, FB, MCD, CAT) helped push the S&P 500 index to a fresh record closing high while the blue-chip Dow enjoyed the biggest gain. More than 265 companies have now reported quarterly earnings this quarter and 87% have surprised to the upside, according to Refinitiv, with the busiest week of the season behind us for S&P companies, but regarding pure volume of names – next week is even busier. The dollar recovered from a nine-week low on Thursday, lifted by a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Oil prices looking lower, down over 1.5% following a strong week of gains.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index climbed 28.29 points, or 0.68%, to 4,211.47

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 239.98 points, or 0.71%, to 34,060.36

·     The Nasdaq Composite gained 31.52 points, or 0.22%, to 14,082.55

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -8.70 points, or 0.38% to 2,295.46

 

Events Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM EST      Personal Income MoM for March

·     8:30 AM EST      Personal Spending MoM for March

·     8:30 AM EST      PCE Price Index MoM for March

·     8:30 AM EST      PCE Price Index YoY for March

·     8:30 AM EST      PCE Core Prices MoM for March

·     8:30 AM EST      PCE Core Prices YoY for March

·     9:45 AM EST      Chicago PMI for April

·     10:00 AM EST    University of Michigan Confidence, Apr-F

·     1:00 PM EST       Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	-0.97	64.04
Brent	-0.86	67.70
Gold	-5.15	1,767.00
EUR/USD	-0.0025	1.2096
JPY/USD	-0.07	108.86
10-Year Note	+0.005	1.645%

 

 

World News

·     China April Caixin Manufacturing PMI above expected; 51.9 vs 50.9 consensus; China April PMI Manufacturing below expected; 51.1 vs 51.8 consensus; China April PMI Services below expected; 54.9 vs 56.1 consensus

·     Japan March Industrial Production (preliminary) above expected; +2.2% m/m vs -2.0% consensus

·     The euro zone economy dipped into a second technical recession after a smaller than expected contraction in the first quarter, as gross domestic product (GDP) in the 19 countries sharing the euro contracted 0.6% quarter-on-quarter for a 1.8% year-on-year fall.

·     Indian variant of the coronavirus detected in France: a case of the Indian variant of the coronavirus has been detected in France from someone who had returned from India

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Amazon.com (AMZN) 1Q EPS $15.79 vs est $9.54 on sales $108.5B vs est $104.5B, AWS sales $13.5B, online store sales $52.9B; guides 2Q sales $110-116B vs est $108.6B, sees 2Q op inc $4.5-8.0B incl about $1.5B covid-related costs

·     Beazer Homes (BZH) Q2 EPS 81c vs. est. $549.9M up 12% YoY; Adjusted EBITDA of $64.2 million, up 46.2%; Homebuilding gross margin was 17.8%, up 170 basis points; gross margin was 22.2%, up 140 bps; SG&A as a percentage of total revenue was 11.0%, down 100 bps YoY; net new orders of 1,854, up 11.6% on a 42.3% increase in orders/community/month to 4.7 and a 21.6% decrease in average community count to 131

·     Columbia Sportswear (COLM) 1Q EPS $0.84 vs est $0.39 on sales $625.6Mm vs est $595Mm; guides FY sales $3.04-3.08B vs est $3.0B, sees FY EPS $4.05-4.30 vs est $4.06

·     Clorox (CLX) Q3 adj EPS $1.62 vs. est. $1.48; Q3 revenue $1.78B vs. est. $1.87B; now sees fy21 gross margin down due to higher commodity, manufacturing, logistics costs; sees FY 10% to 13% sales growth (10% to 13% organic sales growth)

·     Nestlé SA (NSRGY) has agreed to buy the main brands of vitamins maker Bountiful Co. for $5.75 billion

·     Ethan Allen (ETH) 3Q adj EPS $0.58 on sales $177Mm

·     Fortune Brands (FBHS) Q1 EPS $1.36 vs. est. $1.04; Q1 revs $1.8B vs. est. $1.64B; sees FY21 EPS $5.45-$5.65 vs. est. $5.05; now anticipates delivering full-year sales growth in the range of 20%-22%, or 13%-15% excluding the LARSON acquisition

·     Mohawk Industries (MHK) Q1 EPS $3.49 vs. est. $2.81; Q1 revenue $2.7B vs. est. $2.61B

·     Polaris (PII) declares regular cash dividend; announces $1 billion share repurchase authorization

·     SkyWest (SKYW) 1Q EPS $0.71 vs est. $0.89 on revs $535Mm vs est. $575.8Mm

·     Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Q1 EPS 91c vs. est. 58c; Q1 revenue $800.63M vs. est. $741.14M; Q1 comp restaurant sales at company restaurants increased 18.5% and 8.6% compared to 2020 and 2019, respectively; said Q1 comp restaurant sales at domestic franchise restaurants increased 15.2% and 5.1% compared to 2020 and 2019, respectively.

 

Energy

·     Chevron (CVX) Q1 adj EPS 90c in-line with estimates; Q1 revenue $32.03B vs. est. $30.37B; 1q upstream earnings $2.35b and downstream earnings $5m; 1q net production 3.12m boe/day; said earnings strengthened primarily due to higher oil prices as economy recovers; said 1q results down vs year-ago due in part to ongoing downstream margin, volume effects resulting from pandemic and impact of winter storm Uri; 1q capital spending down 43% and 1q cash flow from operations $4.2b

·     Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) Q1 adj EPS 38c vs. est. 35c; Q1 revenue $459.68M vs. est. $471.5M; Q1 daily production was 2,287 Mmcfe per day (100% natural gas); raises dividend 10% to 11c; provided its second quarter 2021 production guidance range of 2,225 to 2,275 Mmcfe per day; backs FY21 capital program $530M-$540M

·     First Solar (FSLR) 1Q EPS $1.96 vs est $0.98 on revs $803Mm vs est $766.6Mm; guides FY net sales $2.85-3.025B vs est $2.94B, maintains FY EPS guide $4.05-4.75 vs est $4.37

·     Helmerich & Payne (HP) Q2 revs $296.2M vs. est. $294.15M; North America Solutions segment exited the second quarter of fiscal year 2021 with 109 active rigs up roughly 15% during the quarter; ended the quarter with $562 million in cash and short-term investments

 

Financials

·     Credit Acceptance (CACC) Q1 adj EPS $9.64 vs. est. $7.92; Q1 revenue $451M vs. est. $429.1M; said recognized a contingent loss of $27.2M in Q1, which reduced consolidated net income and adjusted net income by $20.9M, or $1.22 per diluted share

·     CubeSmart (CUBE) 1Q adj FFO/shr $0.47 vs est $0.45, same-store occupancy averaged 93.8% and ended qtr at 94.4%; guides FY adj FFO/shr $1.80-1.86 vs est $1.84, sees FY adj EPS $0.75-0.81 vs est $0.99

·     Genworth (GNW) Q1 adj EPS 33c vs. est. 18c; Q1 revenue $1.99B vs. est. $1.96B

·     Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) 2.6M share Secondary priced at $25.00

·     OneMain Holdings (OMF) 8M share Secondary priced at $53.50

 

Healthcare

·     Acadia Health (ACHC) 1Q adj EPS $0.47 vs est $0.45 on revs $551.2Mm vs est $545.3Mm; guides FY revs $2.24-2.29B vs est $2.26B, sees FY adj EPS $2.30-2.55 vs est $2.36

·     Bio Rad Labs (BIO) 1Q adj EPS $5.21 vs est $3.00 on sales $726.8Mm vs est $661Mm; guides FY adj currency-neutral revs +5.5-6.0% vs est +4.8%, sees FY adj op mgn about 17%

·     BioMarin Pharma (BMRN) Q1 EPS 9c vs. est. loss (10c); Q1 revenue $486.0M vs. est. $446.45M; backs FY21 revenue view $1.75B-$1.85B vs. est. $1.81B and backs loss $130M-$80M; Net Product Revenues for the first quarter of 2021 decreased to $467.8 million, compared to $489.0 million for the same period in 2020

·     CryoLife (CRY) 1Q adj EPS $0.03 vs est ($0.09) on revs $71.1Mm vs est $63Mm, not issuing FY guide at this time

·     DaVita (DVA) 1Q ajd EPS $2.09 vs est $1.82 on revs $2.82B vs est $2.84B; guides FY adj EPS $8.20-9.00 vs est $8.24

·     Dexcom (DXCM) Q1 EPS 41c vs. est. 30c; Q1 revenue $505.0M vs. est. $484.23M; Based on the strong first quarter results, Dexcom is increasing its guidance for fiscal year 2021 revenue, and reiterating prior guidance for gross margin, Non-GAAP operating margin, and Adjusted EBITDA margin; sees 2021 rev growth about $2.26B-$2.36B

·     eHealth (EHTH) Q1 adj EPS 36c vs. est. 7c; Q1 revenue $134.2M vs. est. $111.34M; sees FY21 adj EPS $2.77-$3.26 vs. est. $2.82; sees FY21 revenue $660M-$700M vs. est. $682.98M

·     Gilead Sciences (GILD) 1Q adj EPS $2.08 vs est $2.09 on revs $6.4B vs est $6.75B, says sales of Veklury will continue to be subject to significant volatility and uncertainty

·     Omnicell (OMCL) Q1 adj EPS 83c vs. est. 66c; Q1 revenue $251.8M vs. est. $246.7M; sees FY21 adjusted EPS $3.50-$3.70 vs. est. $3.53; sees FY21 revenue $1.085B-$1.105B vs. est. $1.09B; for FY21, expects product bookings to be between $1.090 billion and $1.150 billion

·     Vertex Pharma (VRTX) Q1 EPS $2.98 vs. est. $2.69; Q1 revenue $1.72B vs. est. $1.66B; backs FY21 revenue view $6.7B-$6.9B vs. est. $6.95B; Vertex saw an increase in sales from Kaftrio in Europe and Trikafta in the U.S.

·     Compass Pathways (CMPS) 4M share Secondary priced at $36.00

·     Vaccitech (VACC) 6.5M share IPO price $17.00

·     Werewolf (HOWL) 7.5M share IPO priced at $16.00

 

Industrials & Materials

·     Casella Waste (CWST) 1Q adj EPS $0.09 vs est $0.05 on revs $189.5Mm vs est $188.5Mm; guides FY revs $815-830Mm vs est $831.2Mm, sees adj EBITDA $185-189Mm vs est $187.8Mm

·     Eastman Chemicals (EMN) Q1 adj EPS $2.13 on sales $2.4B vs. est. $2.04 and $2.33B; now sees 2021 EPS between $8.25-$8.75 (est. $7.95) and FCF to approach $1.1B

·     Fortive Corp. (FTV) Q1 adj EPS 63c vs. est. 60c; Q1 revenue $1.3B vs. est. $1.22B; raises FY21 adjusted EPS view to $2.50-$2.60 from $2.40-$2.55

·     Terex Corp. (TEX) Q1 EPS 56c vs. est. 24c; Q1 revenue $864.2M vs. est. $832.03M; raises FY21 EPS view to $2.35-$2.55 from $1.95-$2.35 (est. $2.31) and boosts FY21 revenue view to approximately $3.7B from $3.45B (est. $3.6B)

·     U.S. Steel (X) Q1 adj EPS $1.08 vs. est. 91c; Q1 revenue $3.66B vs. est. $3.68B; Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $551 million reflects robust customer demand and purposeful management actions that are delivering strong results

·     Columbus McKinnon (CMCO) 3.75M share Secondary priced at $48.00

·     L3Harris Technologies (LHX) Q1 adj EPS $3.18 vs. est. $2.94; Q1 revenue $4.6B vs. est. $4.54B; raises FY21 adjusted EPS view to $12.70-$13.00 from prior $12.60-$13.00 (est. $12.93) and reaffirmed its FY21 revenue view of $18.5B-$18.9B (est. $18.8B)

·     Barnes Group (B) 1Q EPS $0.38 vs. est. $0.31 on sales $302Mm vs. est. $278.8Mm; sees FY organic sales +10-12% vs. est. +7%, expects FY CAPEX approx $50Mm

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Twitter (TWTR) Q1 adj EPS 16c vs. est. 14c; Q1 revenue $1.04B vs. est. $1.03B; Average monetizable daily active users were 199 million for Q1, compared to 166 million in the same period of the previous year and compared to 192 million in the previous quarter. Average US mDAU were 38 million for Q1, compared to 33 million in the same period of the previous year; sees Q2 revenue $980M-$1.08B vs. est. $1.06B; sees Q2 GAAP operating loss ($170M)-($120M).

·     KLA-Tencor (KLAC) Q3 adj EPS $3.85 vs. est. $3.62; Q3 revenue $1.8B vs. est. $1.75B; sees Q4 adj EPS $3.47-$4.35 vs. est. $3.66; sees Q4 revenue $1.755B-$1.955B vs. est. $1.77B; Q4 GAAP gross margin is expected to be in a range of 58% to 61%

·     Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) Q2 EPS $2.37 vs. est. $2.35; Q2 revenue $1.17B vs. est. $1.15B; sees Q3 EPS $2.13 vs. est. $2.10; sees Q3 revenue $1.075B-$1.125B vs. est. $1.07B

·     Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) 3Q EPS $0.63 vs est $0.29 on revs $569Mm vs est $533.7Mm, qtrly subscription revs +43% to $350Mm, end 3Q with 212,807 customers; guides 4Q revs $513-528Mm vs est $504.7Mm

·     Casa Systems (CASA) 1Q adj EPS $0.11 vs est $0.01 on revs $104.3Mm vs est $92.4Mm; reaffirms FY guide revs +dd% and EBITDA +dd%, sees FY adj EPS $0.23-0.32 vs est $0.29

·     Cirrus Logic (CRUS) 4Q adj EPS $0.66 vs est $0.71 on revs $293.5Mm vs est $302.5Mm; guides 1Q revs $240-280Mm vs est $282.7Mm

·     Five9 Inc. (FIVN) 1Q adj EPS $0.23 vs est $0.13 on revs $137.9Mm vs est $122.6Mm; sees 2Q adj EPS $0.13-0.14 vs est $0.12, sees 2Q revs $131.5-132.5Mm vs est $122Mm; guides FY adj EPS $0.89-0.93 vs est $0.77, sees FY revs $548.5-551.5Mm vs est $520.7Mm

·     Fortinet (FTNT) Q1 EPS 81c vs. est. 74c; Q1 revenue $710.3M vs. est. $681.32M; Billings, an adjusted revenue metric, were $850.6M for the quarter, compared with $667.8M a year earlier; sees Q2 EPS 83c -88c vs. est. 90c; sees Q2 revenue $733M-$747M vs. est. $733.86M

·     Limelight Networks (LLNW) 1Q adj EPS ($0.09) vs est ($0.03) on revs $51.2Mm vs est $54.2Mm; guides FY revs $220-230Mm vs est $225.4Mm, sees FY adj EPS loss $0.05-0.15 vs est loss $0.05

·     MicroStrategy (MSTR) Q1 EPS $1.54 vs. est. 54c; Q1 revenue $122.9M vs. est. $111.92M; says “We continue to be pleased with our bitcoin strategy. We successfully raised more than $1 billion of additional capital in the quarter to expand our bitcoin holdings, which now exceed 91,000 bitcoins

·     National Instruments (NATI) 1Q adj EPS $0.32 vs est $0.07 on revs $335Mm vs est $342.2Mm; guides 2Q revs $305-335Mm vs est $350.9Mm, sees 2Q adj EPS $0.21-0.35 vs est $0.17

·     SPS Commerce (SPSC) 1Q adj EPS $0.43 vs est $0.37 on revs $90.1Mm vs est $87.6Mm; guides 2Q revs 90.5-91.5Mm vs est $88.7Mm, sees 2Q adj EPS $0.39-0.40 vs est $0.39; guides FY revs 371.1-373.6Mm vs est $365.2Mm, sees FY adj EPS $1.65-1.68 vs est $1.62;

·     Western Digital (WDC) Q3 EPS $1.02 vs. est. 68c; Q3 revs $4.1B vs. est. $3.97; sees Q4 EPS $1.30-$1.60 vs. est. $1.02 and revs $4.4B-$4.6B vs. est. $4.26B