Early Look

Thursday, August 11, 2022

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	125.00	0.38%	33,387
S&P 500	10.25	0.26%	4,220
Nasdaq	17.50	0.13%	13,409

 

 

Stocks are extending gains, with futures pointing to a higher open after yesterday’s lower-than-expected US CPI print caused sharp asset price moves. But inflation data not done, with the July producer-price index (PPI) reading at 8:30 AM with economists expecting a M/M rise in headline of +0.2% and a Y/Y rise of +10.2%, while for core PPI M/M, looking for a rise of +0.4% and a Y/Y rise of +7.6%. While the CPI carries more weight for markets, a notable move in PPI could shake-up markets further. The Dow is getting a boost from Disney (DIS) quarterly results last night, posting better-than-expected Disney+ subscribers’ figures for the third quarter and raised the price of the streaming service by 38%. Crypto assets are also rising with broader markets, as Bitcoin trades to its best levels in 2-months around the $24,500 level. In Asian markets, Japan markets were closed for holiday, the Shanghai Index jumped 51 points or 1.6% to 3,281, and the Hang Seng Index spiked 471 points or 2.4% to settle at 20,082. In Europe, the German DAX is little changed at 13,695, while the FTSE 100 is down about -0.25% to 7,487. Sentiment strengthening for Bulls as the bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -4.5 vs -8.3 last week. Bulls rise to 32.2% from 30.6%, Neutrals rise to 31.2% from 30.6% and Bears fall to 36.7% from 38.9%.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index jumped 87.77 points, or 2.13%, to 4,210.24

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 535.10 points, or 1.63%, to 33,309.51

·     The Nasdaq Composite surged 360.88 points, or 2.89%, to 12,854.81

·     The Russell 2000 Index spiked 56.36 points, or 2.95% to 1,969.25

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET          Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 263K

·     8:30 AM EST        Continuing Claims…est. 1.407M

·     8:30 AM ET          Producer Price Index (PPI) M/M for July…est. +0.2%

·     8:30 AM ET          Producer Price Index (PPI) Y/Y for July…est. +10.4%

·     8:30 AM ET          PPI Ex: Food & Energy (core) M/M for July…est. +0.4%

·     8:30 AM ET          PPI Ex: Food & Energy (core) Y/Y for July…est. +7.6%

·     10:30 AM ET        Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

·     1:00 PM ET           US Treasury to sell $19B in 30-yr notes

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: BKKT BRCC CAH DTC EMAN EYE KELYA MRNS OB SIX UTZ VERU

·     Earnings After the Close: AFIB AIRG ATHX DAVE EDR FLO HOFV ILMN LAW LZ MOTS PAYO HUN POSH PTE PX REED RIVN RKDA RKLY RMD RYAN SIEN SMRT TOST UP VIAV XPOF

 

Other Key Events:

·     Cowen 8th Annual Communications Infrastructure Summit, 8/8-8/11, in CO

·     Susquehanna Industrials, Energy & Airlines Conference, 8/11-8/12 in New York

·     William Blair Insurance & Banking Technology Conference (virtual), 8/10-8/12

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.76	92.69
Brent	0.71	98.11
Gold	-6.50	1,807.20
EUR/USD	0.0038	1.0335
JPY/USD	-0.30	132.57
10-Year Note	-0.015	2.766%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     ACV Auctions (ACVA) Q2 EPS loss (-$0.16) vs. est. loss (-$0.18); Q2 revs $115.07M vs. est. $111.35M; Q2 marketplace GMV of $2.7B; sees Q3 revenue $104M-$107M below est. $118.28M; cuts FY22 revs view to $427M-$432M from $452M-$460M (est. $454.75M)

·     Dutch Bros (BROS) Q2 adj EPS $0.05 vs. est. $0.07; Q2 revs rose 44.2% y/y to $186.4M vs. est. $182M; still sees FY22 revenue view at least $715M vs. est. $713.1M; also affirms comp sales growth and adj Ebitda; 2Q company-operated shop rev increased 55.9% to $160.5M

·     Red Robin (RRGB) Q2 revs rose 6.2% y/y to $294.1M vs. est. $298.5M; Q2 adj EPS loss (-$0.75) vs. est. loss (-$0.16); restaurant level operating margin 13.6% vs. 15.7% y/y; Comparable restaurant revenue increased 6.7% and 4.1% compared to 2021 and 2019, respectively; cuts FY22 adjusted EBITDA view to at least $65M from $80M-$90M

·     Six Flags (SIX) Q2 EPS $0.53 misses the $1.02 estimate on light revs falling -5.3% y/y to $435M vs. est. $529.75M; Attendance dropped 21.2% to 6.7 million, well below the FactSet consensus of 8.2 million; total guest spending per capita increased 23.0% to $63.87, as admissions spending grew 26.7% to $36.35

·     Traeger Inc. (COOK) Q2 adj EPS $0.04 vs. est. $0.05; Q2 revs fell -6% y/y to $200.3M vs. est. $219.5M; cuts FY22 revenue view to $640M-$660M from $800M-$850M (est. $801.06M) and lowers FY22 Adjusted EBITDA to $35M-$45M from $70M-$80M

·     Vacasa (VCSA) shares rise 30%; Q2 EPS $0.02 vs. est. loss (-$0.19); Q2 revs $310.3M vs. est. $284.5M; guides Q2 revenue $385M-$395M vs. est. $388.5M and sees Q3 adjusted EBITDA $55M-$60M; boosts FY revenue view to $1.17B-$1.19B from $1.125B-$1.175B

·     Lightning eMotors (ZEV) files $250M mixed securities shelf

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     DHT Holdings (DHT) 2Q EPS $0.06 vs est. ($0.05) on revs $54.1Mm vs est. $48.5Mm, adj EBITDA $32.5Mm vs est. $27.6Mm

·     EnerSys (ENS) Q1 adj EPS $1.15, in-line with consensus and Q1 revs $899M vs. est. $906.64M; sees Q2 adj EPS $1.05-$1.15 vs. est. $1.23; expect 2Q gross margin to be in the range of 21% – 23%, for full year of fiscal 2023 expect cap expenditure to be approximately $100m

 

Financials

·     AllianceBernstein L.P. (AB) preliminary assets under management increased to $689 billion during July 2022 from $647 billion at the end of June; 6.5% increase was driven by market appreciation and the July 1 acquisition of CarVal Investors, partially offset by firm-wide net outflows

·     Marqueta (MQ) Q2 EPS loss (-$0.08) vs. est. loss (-$0.10); Q2 revs jumped 53% y/y to $186.678M vs. est. $180.14M; Total Processing Volume increased by 53% y/y, rising to $40 billion from $27 billion; sees Q3 revenue growth 36%-38% vs. est. $180.05M

·     Manning & Napier, Inc. (MN) reported preliminary assets under management (“AUM”) as of July 31, 2022, of $19.3 billion, compared with $18.5 billion at June 30, 2022

·     Safehold Inc. (SAFE) and iStar Inc. (STAR) jointly announced today that the two companies have entered into a definitive agreement for a tax-free, strategic combination that will accelerate Safehold’s market leadership in the ground lease industry

·     Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) reported assets under management (AUM) of $164.2 billion as of July 31, 2022. The Company also reported average net assets under management for the month of July of $158.1 billion.

 

Healthcare

·     ADMA Biologics (ADMA) 2Q EPS ($0.07) vs est. ($0.08) on revs $33.9Mm vs est. $31.8Mm; guides FY revs over $130Mm vs est. $131.9Mm; continues to see generating approx $250Mm or more in revs in 2024 vs est. $254.8Mm

·     Cytek Biosciences (CYTK) 2Q EPS $0.00 vs est. $0.02 on revs $40.2Mm vs est. $39.6Mm, adj EBITDA $4.8Mm; guides FY revs closer to high end $160-168Mm vs est. $166.5Mm

·     CinCor Pharma (CINC) 7.5M share Secondary priced at $30.00

·     Verona Pharma (VRNA) 12.4M share Secondary priced at $10.50

·     Yield10 Bioscience (YTEN) 2Q EPS ($0.64) vs est. ($0.69)

·     STAAR Surgical (STAA) 2Q adj EPS $0.42 vs est. $0.16 on revs $81.1Mm vs est. $80.1Mm; reaffirms previous outlook for FY net sales approx $295Mm vs est. $295.7Mm

 

Media & Telecom:

·     Disney (DIS) Q adj EPS $1.09 vs est. $0.96 on revs $21.5B vs est. $20.96B; total paid Disney+ subs 152.1Mm, ESPN+ paid subs 22.8Mm, Hulu paid subs 46.2Mm; qtrly higher volumes at domestic parks, experiences due to increases in attendance, occupied room nights, cruise ship sailings; now expects to sign up between 135M-165M subscribers to its core Disney+ service; price of the ad-free standalone Disney+ service will rise from its current level of $7.99 a month in the U.S. to $10.99 a month, or $109.99 a year

·     Bumble (BMBL) Q2 revs rose 18.4% y/y to $220.5M vs. est. $219.37M; app revenue increased 33% to $170M; Q2 total paying users increased to 3.0 mln, compared to 2.9M; Q2 total average revenue per paying user (ARPU) increased to $23.65, compared to $20.88; sees Q3 revs $236M-$240M vs. est. $244.9M and lowers year revs to $920M-$930M from $934M-$944M

·     Vizio (VZIO) 2Q adj EBITDA $11.4Mm vs est. $5.2Mm on revs $408.9Mm vs est. $413.2Mm, qtrly ARPU $25.87 +54%, qtrly platform+ net revs +69% to $110.8Mm, qtrly platform+ gr profit +47% to $69.9Mm; guides 3Q adj EBTITDA $8-13Mm vs est. $18.5Mm, sees 3Q platform+ net revs $120-125Mm, sees 3Q platform+ gr profit $75-78Mm

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     AppLovin Corp. (APP) 2Q GAAP EPS ($0.06) vs est. $0.18 on revs $776Mm vs est. $824Mm, qtrly software platform revs $318Mm +118%; sees FY revs $2.84-3.14B vs est. $3.26B, still sees FY adj EBITDA midpoint $1.2B vs. est. $1.2B

·     Avnet (AVT) Q4 adj EPS $2.07 vs. est. $1.98; Q4 revs $6.4B vs. est. $6.26B; sees Q1 adj EPS $1.85-$1.95 vs. est. $1.87; sees Q1 revs $6.2B-$6.5B vs. est. $6.36B

·     CACI International (CACI) Q4 adj EPS $4.54, in-line with ests on revs $1.64B vs est. $1.66B; sees FY23 adj EPS $17.65-$18.49 vs. est. $19.52; sees FY23 revenue $6.475B-$6.675B vs. est. $6.59B; Company expects continued growth, margin expansion, and healthy cash flow in Fiscal Year 2023

·     Matterport (MTTR) 2Q adj EPS ($0.12) vs est. ($0.14) on revs $28.5Mm vs est. $29.6Mm; sees FY revs $132-138Mm vs est. $127.5Mm and adj EPS ($0.50)-($0.46) vs est. ($0.50)

·     Sonos (SONO) slides -19%; 3Q adj EPS $0.19 vs est. $0.07 on revs $371.8Mm vs est. $423.2Mm; sees FY revs $1.73-1.755B vs est. $1.96B, gross margin 45.7-45.9% vs prior 45.5-46.0%, adj EBITDA $215-230Mm vs prior $290-310Mm and est. $295.6; announces CFO transition