Early Look

Friday, December 13, 2024

Following a softer day yesterday on slightly hotter PPI, US equity futures rebounded nicely overnight thanks in part to a strong report and comments from Broadcom. Other big-cap techs were mixed but chip companies are helping pull indices higher with MRVL, AMD and NVDA in the green, for example. There is no significant economic data today, so what you see may be what you get for a holiday season Friday. Investors continue to expect another Fed cut next week with a probability of 94% with a pause in January. The implied rate at December 2025 is 3.8%. In terms of market expectations, more strategists are coming out bullish for the first half of 2025 but sounding caution for the second half on uncertainty around potential Trump tariffs and the sustainability of economic growth.

In Asian markets, the Nikkei Index slipped 0.95% to 39,470, the Shanghai Index fell 2% to 3,392 and the Hang Seng Index also dipped 2% to 19,971. Recent bigger stimulus in China to boost consumption is being offset in the market as China also prepares for trade war negotiations part two against Trump tariff threats. Perhaps the recent Chinese probe into NVidia and ban on rare mineral exports to the US are just early negotiation tactics. In Europe, the German DAX is higher by about 0.3% to 20,490 while the FTSE 100 is up marginally to 8,322 despite UK GDP dipping by -0.1% in October, same as September, marking the first back-to-back monthly declines since early 2020.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -234.44 points, or 0.53%, to 43,914.12.
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -132.05 points, or 0.66%, to 19,902.84.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -33.08 points, or 1.38% to 2,361.08.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Export Prices M/M for November…est. (-0.2%)
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Roth MKM 13th Annual Deer Valey event 12/11-12/14, in Park City, Utah

• RH (RH) Q3 adj EPS $2.48 vs est. $2.65, adj op Inc $121.874Mm vs est. $125.48Mm on revs $811.732Mm vs est. $812.16Mm; guides Q4 revs +18-20% vs est. +7.06%, adj EBITDA mgn 18-19% and FY revs +6.8-7.2% vs est. +4.3% and adj EBITDA mgn 17.2-17.4%.
• AMZN Jeff Bezos’ Amazon Plans to Donate $1M to Trump’s Inauguration. The tycoon, long a Trump foe, is among tech leaders seeking improved ties with the President-elect. WSJ
• TSLA RIVN NIO – Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles rose for a seventh consecutive month in November, jumping 32% year on year for a third consecutive record high, data from market research firm Rho Motion showed on Friday. China continued to lead sales growth, accounting for almost 70% of total EV sales in the month, while registrations in Europe showed a marginal decline.
• Container Store (TCS) Prepares to File for Bankruptcy in Coming Weeks.
• TSLA Trump transition recommends scrapping car-crash reporting requirement opposed by Tesla

• LyondellBasell (LYB) files automatic mixed securities shelf.
• Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) announced that it has entered a Joint Development Program with one of Appalachia’s most capital efficient operators. The program, which covers drilling activities in calendar year 2025, requires a capital commitment from NOG expected not to exceed $160 million for a 15% working interest.
• Quanex Building (NX) Q4 adj EPS $0.61 vs est. $0.56, adj EBITDA $81.1Mm vs est. $70.70Mm on sales $492.2Mm vs est. $490.96Mm; will host analyst day Feb. 6^th.
• SpaceX Seeks Approval to Turn Texas Starbase Site Into New City.
• BA – Qatar air looking to strike Boeing Co. 737-10 model from its order book because the aircraft no longer meets its fleet requirements

• BGC – Wall Street brokerage Cantor Fitzgerald has agreed to pay a $6.75 million penalty to settle Securities and Exchange Commission charges that it misled investors in blank-check companies it controlled, the regulator said on Thursday.
• Australia’s Insignia Financial gets $1.7 billion takeover offer from Bain Capital; shares rise.
• BX – Blackstone, Bain to bid for Mitsubishi pharma unit in up to $3.5B deal, sources say

• GILD SNY Gilead appoints Sanofi official Dietmar Berger as next chief medical officer.
• GERN Geron Announces Positive CHMP Opinion for RYTELO™ (imetelstat) for the Treatment of Adults with Transfusion-Dependent Anemia due to Lower-Risk MDS.
• GILD Gilead’s seladelpar receives positive CHMP opinion for primary biliary cholangitis.
• MRK Merck’s welireg gets positive recommendation in EU

• Microsoft (MSFT) files for debt shelf; size not disclosed.
• Keybanc with several software ratings changes: Salesforce (CRM) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc with a $440 price target; Amplitude (AMPL) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight, with $15 tgt and downgraded shares of ZoomInfo (ZI) to Underweight from Sector Weight and cut both Monday.com (MNDY) and ServiceNow (NOW) to Sector Weight from Overweight.
• Meta (META) said on Thursday it was releasing an artificial intelligence model called Meta Motivo, which could control the movements of a human-like digital agent, with the potential to enhance Metaverse experience
• T-Mobile (TMUS) Approves 2025 Shareholder Return Program of Up to $14B
• Apple (AAPL) to Begin AirPods Assembly in Southern India by Early 2025