Early Look

Thursday, December 21, 2023

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	149.00	0.40%	37,594
S&P 500	21.25	0.44%	4,770
Nasdaq	100.50	0.60%	16,867

 

 

After snapping the 9-day win streaks for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite on Wednesday, US futures are pointing to an early rebound. Some media reports noted a large options trade ODTE (zero days til expiration) options trade at 4755 triggered a $1.9 billion selloff late yesterday, resulting in the Spuz falling -146%, its biggest decline since September 26^th. Until that late day swoon, major averages hadn’t seen more than a 10-point pullback all week prior in what has been a slow, steady, relentless move higher since last weeks FOMC meeting. Nasdaq futures rose even more, +0.6%, helped by semiconductors after Micron (MU) posted a beat and raise quarter, lifting shares 5% overnight. Economic data picks up today with Q3 Final GDP est. +5.2%, spending expected to rise 3.6% and core PCE for Q3-Final est. +2.3% at 8:30 AM along with Jobless Claims (Philly Fed, and Leading Index later in day at 10:00 AM). Then on Friday, we get November Personal Income and Spending as well as Nov PCE and Core PCE inflation readings (all at 8:30 AM) as well as Durable Goods, New Home Sales, and University of Michigan Sentiment. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -534 points to 33,140, the Shanghai Index gained 16 points to 2,918, and the Hang Seng Index edged higher 7 points to 16,631. In Europe, the German DAX is down about -90 points to 16,643, while the FTSE 100 slips -33 points to 7,681. After the close tonight, Dow component and shoe/apparel giant Nike (NKE) reports earnings. Economic data will likely be the key driver for markets heading into the holiday weekend.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index tumbled -70.02 points, or 1.47%, to 4,698.35.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -475.92 points, or 1.27%, to 37,082.00.

·     The Nasdaq Composite dropped -225.28 points, or 1.50%, to 14,777.94.

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -38.12 points, or 1.89% to 1,982.84.

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 215K

·     8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.888M

·     8:30 AM ET                  Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Q3 Final…est. +5.2%

·     8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Spending for Q3-Final…est. +3.6%

·     8:30 AM ET                  GDP Price Deflator, Q3-Final…est. +3.6%

·     8:30 AM ET                  PCE Prices, Q3-Final…est.

·     8:30 AM ET                  Core-PCE Prices, Q3-Final…est. +2.3%

·     8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Business Index for December…est. (-3.0)

·     10:00 AM ET                Leading Index M/M for November…est. (-0.4%)

·     10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

·     11:00 AM ET                Kansas City Fed manufacturing for December…est. (-4)

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: APOG CTAS KMX PAYX

·     Earnings After the Close: AIR AVO CETX LMNR NKE WS

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	-0.31	73.91
Brent	-0.26	79.44
Gold	-1.20	2,046.50
EUR/USD	0.0033	1.0971
JPY/USD	-0.71	142.85
10-Year Note	+0.009	3.886%

 

 

World News

·     The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 32 vs 32 last week. Bulls rise to 52.9% from 51.3%, Neutrals fall to 26.2% from 29.4%, Bears rise to 20.9% from 19.3%

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     MillerKnoll (MLKN) Q2 adj EPS $0.59 vs. est. $0.54; Q2 revs $949.5M vs. est. $971.47M; guides Q3 adj EPS $0.48-$0.48 vs. est. $0.39; sees Q3 revenue $890M-$930M vs. est. $940.62M; raises FY24 adjusted EPS view to $2.00-$2.16 from $1.85-$2.15 (est. $1.98); says while economic uncertainty persists in parts of our business, we maintain a generally optimistic outlook.

·     Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) announced that its CFO, Michael Quartieri, will be retiring from the company effective April 30, 2024; will continue to serve as CFO until his successor is appointed.

·     Nio Inc. (NIO), LI Auto (LI), and Xpeng Inc. (XPEV) shares may active after reports the Biden administration is discussing raising tariffs on some Chinese goods, including electric vehicles, the Wall Street Journal reported late on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. http://tinyurl.com/5n7sy7jc

·     Tesla (TSLA) faces an inquiry by Norway’s traffic safety regulator into suspension failures in the company’s electric cars that could result in a recall, the agency told Reuters.

·     Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH) announces a $250M stock repurchase program.

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Apogee Enterprises (APOG) Q3 adj EPS $1.23 vs. est. $1.10; Q3 revs $339.71M vs. est. $361M; guides year EPS $4.55-$4.70 vs. est. $4.48 and compared to prior view of $4.35-$4.65.

·     Boeing (BA) shares edge higher pre-mkt after Reuters reported the plane-maker set to restart deliveries of 787 Dreamliner in China after two years.

 

Financials

·     Raymond James (RJF) November Financial AUM rose 9.9% to $209.9B and said November client assets under administration $1.32 trillion.

 

Healthcare

·     Immunovant (IMVT), Roivant (ROIV) reports positive initial phase 2 results for Batoclimab in graves’ disease; said intend to focus future development in graves’ on IMVT-1402, with plans expected to be announced later in 2024; said Batoclimab was generally well tolerated with no new safety signals observed in initial data set.

·     Merck (MRK) drug candidate to treat chronic cough didn’t show substantial evidence of effectiveness, according to the FDA as the drug maker received a complete response letter regarding its new drug application for gefapixant, a potential treatment for refractory chronic cough or unexplained chronic cough in adults.

·     Ocugen (OCGN) gains FDA alignment on key aspects of OCU400—modifier gene therapy—pivotal phase 3 study design; phase 3 clinical trial will enroll broader group of RP patients, including patients with most common rho gene mutation.

·     QuidelOrtho (QDEL) receives 510(k) clearance for Savanna® multiplex molecular platform and savanna® HSV 1+2/VZV PCR assay.

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Micron Technologies (MU) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.95) vs. est. loss (-$0.97); Q1 revs rose 16% y/y to $4.73B vs. est. $4.54B; Q1 cash flow from operations +49% y/y to $1.40Band guided Q2 revs $5.1B-$5.5B vs. est. $4.99B; said improved supply-demand environment in current calendar qtr gives US additional confidence in trajectory of our business; said pricing drove better-than-anticipated Q1 results.

·     BlackBerry (BB) Q3 adj EPS $0.01 vs. est. loss (-$0.03); Q3 revs $175M vs. est. $173.53M; sees Q4 total BlackBerry revenue $150M-$159M (est. $200M), Q4 IoT revenue $62M-$66M and Q4 Cyber revenue $83M-$88M.

·     Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) CEO David Zaslav met with Paramount Global (PARA) CEO Bob Bakish on Tuesday in New York City to discuss a possible merger; multiple sources told Axios’. Zaslav also has spoken to Shari Redstone, who owns National Amusements, Paramount’s parent company, about a deal, according to the report http://tinyurl.com/27463yvd

·     Salesforce (CRM) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley, saying that the stock continues to trade at a discount to its large cap software peers.

·     TE Connectivity (TEL) files automatic mixed securities shelf.