Early Look

Thursday, February 1, 2024

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	12.00	0.03%	38,292
S&P 500	17.00	0.35%	4,887
Nasdaq	96.50	0.56%	17,338

 

 

U.S. futures are looking at a modest bounce overnight following the first 1% decline for the S&P 500 since December 20^th and the largest one day drop since September 21^st (the S&P has declined more than 1% only twice since November) after comments from Fed Chairman Powell weighed on sentiment. Stocks slumped on Wednesday as Fed Chairman Powell lowered market expectations of a Fed rate cut at the March meeting saying, “I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting, to identify that March is the time to do that.” Those comments turned a rebounding market in mid-afternoon to a full-fledged sell-off led by interest rate sensitive sectors late in the day (closing at the lows). It will be interesting to see what risk assets that were priced for cuts do now. The Nasdaq 100 was down the most after weakness in mega cap tech stocks following disappointing AMD, GOOGL results. Wednesday marked the steepest daily loss since Sept. 21; though all three indexes still notched gains for January. Wall Street now turns its attention back to earnings, with a heavy day of results expected, concluding with results from Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META) after the close tonight, and a busy round of economic data this morning (jobless claims, nonfarm productivity, ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending) followed by the monthly Nonfarm payrolls report Friday. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -275 points to 36,011, the Shanghai Index was down -17 points to 2,770, and the Hang Seng Index rose 81 points to 15,566. In Europe, the German DAX is down -38 points to 16,865, while the FTSE 100 is up 34 points to 7,665.

 

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -317.01 points, or 0.82%, to 38,150.30.
• The Nasdaq Composite plunged -345.89 points, or 2.23%, to 15,164.01.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -48.87 points, or 2.45% to 1,947.34.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 212K
• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.84M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Nonfarm productivity for Q4…est. +1.6%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unit Labor Costs for Q4-P…est. +2.5%
• 9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Jan-F…prior 50.3
• 10:00 AM ET                ISM Manufacturing for January…est. 47.0
• 10:00 AM ET                Construction Spending M/M for December…est. +0.5%
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AAPL AMZN ATGE BZH CLFD CLX COLM COUR CPT CVCO DECK DLB DXC EMN EXPO GEN HLI HOLX HUBG KMPR LESL LPLA MATW MCHP META MTX NOV ORC POST RGA SKX SKYW VIAV X

• Oppenheimer Semiconductor 2024 Bus Tour, 2/1 in Phoenix, AZ

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.56	76.40
Brent	0.67	81.22
Gold	-17.90	2,049.50
EUR/USD	-0.0011	1.0805
JPY/USD	-0.10	146.78
10-Year Note	-0.019	3.946%

 

• Meritage Homes (MTH) Q4 EPS $5.38 vs. est. $5.17; Q4 revs $1.64B vs. est. $1.53B; Q4 orders of 2,892 homes for the fourth quarter of 2023 increased 60% y/y due to a 64% increase in average absorption pace to 3.6 per month from 2.2 per month in Q4’22 and 1% decrease in average communities.
• Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Q4 adj EPS $0.92 vs. est. $0.79; Q4 revs $3.74B vs. est. $3.84B; sees FY24 adjusted EPS $3.50-$4.50, vs. consensus $4.46; 4Q cash from operating activities $769m, free cash flow $647M.
• Visto Outdoors (VSTO) Q3 adj EPS $0.80 vs est. $0.81 on revs $682Mm vs est. $687.7Mm; reaffirms FY guide for sales $2.725-2.825B vs est. $2.76B adj EPS $3.65-4.05 vs est. $3.86 and adj EBITDA mgn 15.5-16.25%.
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Las Vegas Sands (LVS): January gross gaming revenue increased 67% from the year prior to 19.34B patacas ($2.4B), according to data released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
• Li Auto Inc. (LI) delivered 31,165 vehicles in January 2024, up 105.8% year over year. The cumulative deliveries of Li Auto vehicles reached 664,529 as of the end of January 2024.
• NIO (NIO) delivered 10,055 vehicles in January 2024, increasing by 18.2% year-over-year. The deliveries consisted of 6,307 premium smart electric SUVs, and 3,748 premium smart electric sedans. Cumulative deliveries of NIO vehicles reached 459,649 as of January 31, 2024.
• XPENG (XPEV) recorded monthly deliveries of 8,250 Smart EVs, representing a 58% increase year-over-year. In early January, the Company launched its X9 Ultra Smart Large Seven-seater MPV, followed by immediate deliveries across more than 100 cities in China.

• Corteva (CTVA) Q4 operating EPS $0.15 vs. est. $0.06; Q4 revs $3.51B vs. est. $3.62B; sees 2024 operating EPS $2.70-$2.90 below consensus $3.01; sees 2024 revenue $17.4B-$17.7B vs. est. $17.61B.
• Eaton (ETN) Q4 EPS $2.55 vs. est. $2.47; Q4 revs $6.0B vs. est. $5.91B; sees 2024 adj EPS $9.95-$10.35 vs est. $10.06 and sees 2024 revenue growth 6.5%-8.5% (est. $24.72B).
• Honeywell (HON) Q4 adj EPS $2.60 vs. est. $2.59; Q4 revs $9.44B vs. est. $9.7B; sees FY24 adj EPS $9.80-$10.10, vs. consensus $9.96 and sees FY24 revenue $38.1B-$38.9B vs. est. $39.01B; Q4 sales were up 2% on an organic basis, led by double-digit percentage growth in commercial aviation.
• Landstar (LSTR) Q4 EPS $1.62 vs. est. $1.62; Q4 revs $1.2B vs. est. $1.24B; guides Q1 EPS $1.25-$1.35 vs. est. $1.63 and revs $1.1B-$1.15B vs. est. $1.21B; said expects 1Q rev per load on loads hauled via truck to be 8%-10% below 2023 Q1.
• Nextracker (NXT) Q3 adj EPS $0.96 vs est. $0.48 on revs $710.426Mm vs est. $619.16Mm, adj EBITDA $168Mm vs est. $105.16Mm; guides FY revs $2.425-2.475B vs prior $2.3-2.4B and est. $2.342B, adj EBITDA $475-500Mm vs prior $390-440Mm and est. $411.54Mm, adj EPS $2.55-2.75 vs prior $1.95-2.15 and est. $2.12.
• Rayonier Inc. (RYN) Q4 adj EPS $0.17 vs est. $0.15, adj EBITDA $93.7Mm vs est. $89.43<, on revs $467.4Mm vs est. $229.75Mm; guides FY24 adj EBITDA $290-325Mm vs est. $302.44Mm.
• Shell (SHEL) reported a 2023 profit of $28 billion, a 30% drop from the previous year’s record as energy prices and demand cooled but increased its dividend by 4% and extend share repurchases.
• An investor group, led by Ancora Holdings, has taken a roughly $1 bln stake in Norfolk Southern (NSC) and nominated a majority slate of directors in a bid to oust CEO Alan Shaw, the Wall Street Journal reported.

• AvalonBay (AVB) Q3 core FFO $2.74 vs. est. $2.73; Q3 same Store total revenue increased 4.5% and same Store Residential rental revenue also 4.5%; sees FY24 core FFO $10.53-$11.03 vs. est. $11.00.
• MetLife (MET) Q4 adj EPS $1.83 vs. est. $1.89; Book value of $35.85 per share, up 7% from $33.45 per share at December 31, 2022; sees 2024 corporate & other adjusted loss of $750M-$850M, sees 2024 variable investment income of about $1.5B; sees near term free cash flow ratio of 65-75% of adjusted earnings.
• New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) said it sees FY24 NII $2.8B-$2.9B vs. $3.08B in FY23; sees FY24 net interest margin 2.40%-2.50B and CET1 capital ratio at 10% by 2024-end; sees FY24 operating expense of $2.35B vs. $2.09B in FY23.

• Align Technologies (ALGN) 4Q revs $956.7M vs. est. $933.8M; Q4 adj EPS $2.42 vs. est. $2.18; guides Q1 revs $960M-$980M vs. est. $952.5M; 2023 operating margin of 16.7%, non-GAAP operating margin of 21.4%; Major 2023 milestones: 17 million Invisalign patients, 4 million Vivera retainers, and 100 thousand iTero scanner units.
• Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) files $300M mixed securities shelf.
• Conmed Corp. (CNMD) Q4 adj EPS $1.06 vs est. $1.11 on revs $327.045Mm vs est. $332.2Mm, guides FY24 revs $1.34-1.365B vs est. $1.357B and adj EPS $4.30-4.40 vs est. $4.40.
• Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX) entered into a license and collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceuticals (TAK); agreement for development, manufacture, and commercialization of company’s Rusfertide and other licensed products.

• Benchmark Electronics (BHE) Q4 adj EPS $0.58 vs. est. $0.56; Q4 revs $691M vs. est. $707.5M; sees Q1 adjusted EPS $0.42-$0.48 vs. est. $0.45 and revs $625M-$665M vs. est. $706.25M.
• Digi International (DGII) Q1 adj EPS $0.48 vs est. $0.44 on revs $106.089Mm vs est. $105.6Mm; sees Q2 revs $105-109Mm vs est. $108.37Mm, adj EBITDA $22.5-24.5Mm vs est. $23.65Mm and adj EPS $ADJ EPS $0.45-0.49 vs est. $0.47; sees FY revs flat y/y vs est. -0.24%, ARR and adj EBITDA +5%.
• Flex Inc. (FLEX) Q3 adj EPS $0.71 vs. est. $0.61; Q3 revs $7.1B vs. est. $6.72B; raises FY24 adj EPS view to $2.47-$2.57 from $2.05-$2.18 (est. $2.51) and raises FY24 revenue view to $27.7B-$28.3B from $25.9B-$26.5B (est. $28.31B).
• Kulic and Soffa (KLIC) Q1 adj EPS $0.30 vs est. $0.26 on revs $171.2Mm vs est. $172Mm; sees Q2 revs $160-180Mm vs est. $192.33Mm and adj EPS $0.15-0.35 vs est. $0.39.
• MaxLinear (MXL) Q1 adj EPS $0.01 on revs $125.4M, in-line with consensus; sees Q1 revs $85M-$105M, below consensus $121.56M and sees Q1 GAAP gross margin of approximately 50.0% to 54.0%; Non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 59.5% to 62.5%.
• PTC Inc. (PTC) Q1 adj EPS $1.11 vs est. $0.96, op mgn 22% on revs $550Mm vs est. $538.86Mm; guides Q2 revs $560-590Mm vs est. $582.4Mm and adj EPS $1.10-1.30 vs est. $1.26; sees FY revs $2.27-2.36B vs est. $2.32B and FCF $725Mm.
• Qorvo (QRVO) Q3 ad EPS $2.10 vs est. $1.66 on revs $1.074B vs est. $1.003B, adj gr mgn 43.8%, says seeing incremental improvement in end market demand in android ecosystem; sees Q4 revs $900-950Mm vs est. $913.14Mm, adj gr mgn approx 42%, adj EPS approx $1.20 at revs midpoint vs est. $1.17.
• Wolfspeed (WOLF) Q2 EPS loss (-$1.00) vs. est. loss (-$0.66); Q2 revs $208.4M vs. est. $206.4M; guides Q3 EPS loss (-$0.69-$0.57) vs. est. loss (-$0.63); sees Q3 revenue $185M-$215M, below consensus $224.0M; said Mohawk Valley fab revenue tripled sequentially; on track for 20% utilization in Q4.
• Nvidia (NVDA) has started taking pre-orders for a new China-specific artificial intelligence (AI) chip from distributors who are pricing it on par with a rival product from Huawei, sources familiar with the matter said – Reuters.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.