Early Look

Friday, February 2, 2024

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	30.00	0.08%	38,655
S&P 500	29.25	0.60%	4,958
Nasdaq	179.50	1.03%	17,616

 

 

S&P futures hit all-time fresh highs after hours last night (4,963.75) following massive after hours advances from Amazon (+6.5%) and Meta (+16%) after earnings in the tech sector, while Apple (AAPL) lagged after its results (-2.6%), heading into the monthly Nonfarm payroll report later this morning (8:30 AM ET). Stocks surged all day Thursday, recouping much of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting weakness as both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose more than 1% each in a strong start to February. The KBW regional banking index dropped over -2% yesterday with banks extending losses from Wednesday when a New York bank report renewed worries about the regional banking industry’s health/commercial real estate. Next up, the monthly Nonfarm Payroll report at 8:30 with ests for 180K added jobs and 155K private payrolls. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 146 points to 36,158, the Shanghai Index fell -40 points to 2,730, and the Hang Seng Index dipped -32 points to 15,533. In Europe, the German DAX is higher by 128 points to 16,987, while the FTSE 100 is up 20 points to 7,644. So, one interesting stat last night, @ukarlewitz noted the “$SPX up 3 months in a row by >15%. Since 1980, 9 other instances. None was a top, all mostly were the initiation of an uptrend, but a few 3-7% corrections in the interim (circles). If gains hold, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track to make it 13 out of last 14 weeks closing higher.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 369.54 points, or 0.97%, to 38,519.84.
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 197.63 points, or 1.30%, to 15,361.64.
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 27.08 points, or 1.39% to 1,974.42.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Private Payrolls for January…est. +155K
• 8:30 AM ET                  Manufacturing Payrolls for January…est. +5K
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unemployment Rate for January…est. 3.8%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Average Hourly Earnings M/M for January…est. +0.3%
• 10:00 AM ET                Factory Orders M/M for December…est. +0.2%
• 10:00 AM ET                Durable Goods Orders M/M for December
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Confidence, Jan-Final…est. 78.9
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.32	74.14
Brent	0.35	79.05
Gold	1.70	2,072.80
EUR/USD	0.0009	1.0881
JPY/USD	0.08	146.49
10-Year Note	+0.017	3.88%

 

• Beazer Homes (BZH) Q1 adj EBITDA $38Mm vs est. $41.19Mm, adj homebuilding gr mgn 19.9%, homebuilding revs $380.9Mm; Net new orders of 823, up 70.7% on a 50.4% increase in orders per community per month to 2.0 and a 13.5% increase in average community count to 137.
• Clorox Inc. (CLX) Q2 adj EPS $2.16 vs est. $1.10, gr mgn 43.5% on revs $1.99B vs est. $1.804B; guides FY24 net sales down low single digits vs est. -5.1%; raises FY adj EPS view to $5.30-$5.50 from prior $4.30-$4.80; Q2 gross margin up 730 bps to 43.5% from 36.2% a year ago; Gross margin increased 730 basis points to 43.5% from 36.2%.
• Columbia Sportswear (COLM) Q4 EPS $1.55 vs. est. $1.95; Q4 revs $1.06B vs. est. $1.08B; sees FY24 EPS $3.45-$3.85, below consensus $4.51 and revs $3.35B-$3.42B vs. est. $3.51B saying expects 2024 to be a challenging year; says FY24 gross margin expand 100 to 150 basis points to 50.6% to 51.1% of net sales from 49.6%.
• Deckers Outdoors (DECK) Q3 EPS $15.11 vs. est. $11.48; Q3 revs $1.56B vs. est. $1.45B; FY 2024 diluted eps guidance raised to range of $26.25-$26.50 from $22.90$23.25 and FY24 revenue guidance raised to about $4.15B from prior $4.025B; said FY24 gross margin now expected to be approximately 54.5%.
• Leslie’s (LESL) Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.20) vs. est. loss (-$0.21); Q1 revs $174.0M vs. est. $169.61M; sees FY24 adjusted EPS $0.25-$0.33 vs. est. $0.28 and revs $1.41B-$1.47B vs. est. $1.44B.
• Macy’s (M) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup and raise tgt to $18.
• Skechers (SKX) Q4 EPS $0.56 vs. est. $0.55; Q4 revs $1.96B vs. est. $2.04B; achieved record gross margin of 53.1% in Q4; guides Q1 EPS below view; sees FY24 EPS $3.65-$3.85 vs. est. $4.18 and revs $8.6B-$8.8B vs. est. $8.94B.
• Activist investor Barington Capital has acquired an undisclosed stake in Mattel (MAT) and is eyeing major changes to boost the toy maker’s stock, the WSJ reported citing a letter sent to CEO http://tinyurl.com/ydvajchk

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) Q4 adj EPS $2.48 vs. est. $2.22; Q4 total rev. & other income -11% y/y to $84.34B vs. est. $90.07B; forecasts Q1 lower volumes driven by absence of favorable Q4 entitlement impacts, partly offset by payara development ramp-up in upstream; looking ahead to the first quarter, we expect slightly lower upstream volumes; Q4 Free cash flow dropped 35% to $7.97 billion but topped the FactSet consensus of $7.77 billion.
• Eastman Chemical (EMN) Q4 adj EPS $1.31 vs est. $1.30, adj EBIT $222Mm vs est. $240Mm on revs $2.207B vs est. $2.208B; guides FY24 EPS $7.25-8.00 vs est. $7.85.
• Hub Group (HUBG) Q4 adj EPS $0.54 vs est. $0.51, adj EBITDA $78Mm vs est. $78.42Mm on revs $985.023Mm vs est. $992.79Mm; guides FY24 revs $4.6-5.0B vs est. $4.446B and EPS $2.00-2.50 vs est. $2.63.
• Nov Inc. (NOV) Q4 EPS $1.51 on revs $2.34B vs. est. $2.26B.
• US Steel (X) Q4 adj EPS $0.67 vs. est. $0.26; Q4 revs $4.14B vs. est. $3.76B; said sees closing of Nippon Steel deal in the second or third quarter 2024; in 2024, lead times are extended reflecting broad customer demand & operations are running at high levels of utilization and says remain on-track for start-up of our new state-of-the-art mini mill, Big River 2, in the second half of 2024.

• LPL Financial (LPLA) Q4 adj EPS $3.51 vs est. $3.38, EBITDA $445Mm.

• AstraZeneca (AZN) said had positive high-level results from Japan phase iii trial of acoramidis in adults with transthyretin-mediated amyloid cardiomyopathy; said results showed consistency with BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) ATTRibute-CM Phase III trial.
• Cigna (CI) Q4 adj EPS $6.79 vs. est. $6.37; Q4 revs $51.15B vs. est. $48.89B; raised its quarterly dividend to $1.40 a share from $1.23 a share; sees FY24 adj EPS at least $28.25 vs. est. $28.29 and sees FY24 revenue at least $235B, vs. consensus $228.36B; Q4 medical care ratio of 82.2% vs 83.8%.
• The Ensign Group (ENSG) Q4 adj EPS $1.28 vs est. $1.25 on revs $980.4Mm vs est. $975.7Mm; guides FY revs $4.13-4.17B vs est. $4.072B and EPS $5.29-5.47 vs est. $5.23.
• Hologic Inc. (HOLX) Q1 EPS $0.98 vs. est. $0.95; Q1 revs $1.01B vs. est. $986.1M; raises FY24 EPS view to $3.97-$4.12 from $3.90-$4.10 (est. $4.00) and boosts FY24 revenue view to $3.99B-$4.065B from $3.92B-$4.02B (est. $3.99B).
• Britain’s competition regulator said on Friday it was looking into Thermo Fisher Scientific’s (TMO) $3.1 billion deal to buy biotech firm Olink Holding AB saying the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is considering whether the deal, if carried into effect, would result in substantial lessening of competition in the UK.

• Meta Inc. (META) shares jumped over 13% overnight after boosts buyback by $50B; Q4 EPS $5.33 vs est. $4.96 on revs $40.1B vs est. $39.177B, DAUs 2.11B vs est. 2.07B, MAUs 3.07B +3% y/y; initiates qtrly div $0.50/share; forecasts Q1 rev. $34.5B to $37B, est. $33.64B.
• Atlassian (TEAM) Q2 adj EPS $0.73 vs. est. $0.62; Q2 revs $1.06B vs. est. $1.02B; sees Q3 revenue $1.085B-$1.105B vs. est. $1.06B and cloud revenue growth y/y expected to be in the range of 30.0%-32.0%; sees FY24 cloud revenue growth y/y 28.5%-30.5%.
• Coursera (COUR) Q4 EPS $0.06 vs. est. $0.00; Q4 revs $168.9M vs. est. $164.1M; sees Q1 revenue $168M-$172M, vs. consensus $171.3M and sees FY24 revenue $730M-$740M vs. est. $727.4M; sees FY24 adjusted EBITDA $26M-$32M vs. ($10M) last year.
• DXC Technology (DXC) Q3 adj EPS $0.87 vs est. $0.77, adj EBIT mgn 7.6% on revs $3.4Mm vs est. $3.363Mm; guides Q4 revs $3.35-3.39B vs est. $3.421B and adj EPS $0.80-0.85 vs est. $1.09; sees FY organic revs -6.5% to -5.5%, sees FY adj EPS $3.00-3.05 vs est. $3.17.
• Gen Digital (GEN) Q3 adj EPS $0.49 vs est. $0.50 on revs $951Mm vs est. $956.2Mm; guides Q4 revs $960-970Mm vs est. $974.42Mm and adj EPS $0.52-0.54 vs est. $0.53.
• Intel (INTC) shares dipped after the WSJ reported a delay in co’s construction timetable for $20 bln chip-manufacturing project in Ohio, citing slowdown in chip market.
• Microchip (MCHP) Q4 adj EPS $1.08 vs. est. $1.04; Q4 revs $1.77B vs. est. $1.77B; guides Q4 adj EPS $0.46-$0.68 below the $0.91 consensus on revs $1.225B-$1.425B vs. est. $1.66B; increases quarterly dividend 25.7% y/y to 45c; said taking steps to limit discretionary spending and tightly manage inventory levels during downcycle; said cautious about demand in near term given weak macro environment and customers’ ongoing actions to reduce inventory.
• Viavi Solutions (VIAV) Q2 adj EPS $0.11 vs est. $0.09, adj gr mgn 60%, adj op mgn 13.2% on revs $254.5Mm vs est. $251Mm; guides Q3 revs $245-253Mm vs est. $249.88Mm and adj EPS $0.05-0.09 vs est. $0.09.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.