Early Look

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

U.S. equity futures decline amid concerns over the trade war with China as tensions ramp up and some disappointing results from tech companies as GOOGL shares tumbled 7% in pre-market trading after the Google parent reported fourth-quarter revenue that missed expectations, while AMD shares slide -8% weighing on semi chips. Also, China’s antitrust regulator is preparing for a possible investigation into Apple’s (AAPL) policies and App Store fees, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The development comes a day after China announced measures targeting U.S. businesses. Amazon.com, Alibaba, and Temu parent PDD Holdings were among the e-commerce stocks tumbling on Wednesday after the U.S. Postal Service said it would temporarily suspend all inbound parcels from mainland China and Hong Kong. Lastly, the Financial Times reports that the EU prepares to hit Big US Tech in retaliation for Donald Trump’s tariffs. Despite futures being down, the VIX is only up one 1.9% at 17.54 after tumbling yesterday as stocks rallied all day. Earnings remain the focus today with DIS and UBER results this morning.

Major stock indexes rose on Tuesday as the delay on tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada for a month eases some concerns over a multi-front trade war. The Trump administration did implement tariffs on China which struck back with levies of its own on certain American goods, an antitrust probe into Google and restrictions on Chinese exports of key minerals. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to lead the Health and Human Services Department advances to the full Senate, putting pressure on shares of big food companies and vaccine makers.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 33 points to 38,831, the Shanghai Index fell -21 points to 3,229, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -192 points to 20,597. In Europe, the German DAX is down -6 points to 21,498, while the FTSE 100 rose 6 points to 8,577. The dollar fell to its lowest in six weeks vs. the Japanese yen below 153 per dollar as strong Japanese wage data and comments from a BOJ official hinting at further rate hikes boosted the country’s currency.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 134.13 points, or 0.30%, to 44,556.04.
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 262.06 points, or 1.35%, to 19,654.02.
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 31.79 points, or 1.41% to 2,290.21.

• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payrolls for January…est. +150K (prior +122K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  International Trade for December…est. (-$96.6B)
• 9:00 AM ET                  Fed’s Barkin Speaks in a Fireside Chat
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Jan-final…prior 52.4
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Jan-final…prior 52.8
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing (services) PMI for January…est. 54.3
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET                   Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Remarks at Auto Conference

• Earnings After the Close: AFL ALGN ALL AOSL APPS ARAY ASGN ASYS AVB BARK BKH BLBD BV CCK CENT CNMD CNXN COHR CPAY CSGS CTSH CTVA DGII DHX DLX ENS EQH F FORM FR GEOS GL HI HMN HOLX HP KMPR MAA MC MCK MET MOH MSTR MUSA NOTV NTGR NVST NWSA OHI ORLY PAHC PI PLUS PTC PYCR QCOM RAMP RDN REXR RM RMR RRX RYN SAFE SITM STC STE SWKS SYM TENM TTMI UDR UFI UGI UTI UHAL VKTX WEX WFRD

• Columbia Sportswear (COLM) Q4 EPS $1.80 vs. est. $1.88; Q4 revs $1.097B vs. est. $1.08B; sees FY25 EPS $3.80-$4.15, vs. consensus $3.92 and sees FY25 revenue $3.4B-$3.47B vs. consensus $3.35B.
• Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co (GT) said it plan includes 850 job reductions at Danville, Virginia facility; reached deal with united steelworkers, approved plan to reduce Co’s production capacity & production cost per tire in Americas; total pre-tax charges estimated between $130M and $140M.
• Mattel Inc. (MAT) Q4 adj EPS $0.35, vs. est. $0.20; Q4 revs $1.65B vs. est. $1.63B; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $1.66-$1.72 vs. consensus $1.58 and sees FY25 net sales up 2%-3%, with adjusted gross margin comparable to FY24; 4Q net sales in North America Segment rose 1% and International Segment up 3%; 6% in Constant Currency.
• Mondelez International (MDLZ) Q4 adj EPS $0.65 vs est. $0.66 on revs $9.6B, vs est. $9.641B, N. American revs +0.1%, Europe revs +5.8%, gr mgn 38.6%, op mgn 16.8%; guides FY revs +5% vs est. +2.93%, expects adj EPS decline approx 10% constant currency due to unprecedented cocoa cost inflation vs est. -6.7% reported.
• Modine Manufacturing (MOD) Q3 adj EPS $0.92 vs est. $0.79, adj EBITDA $87.3Mm vs est. $84.8Mm on revs $616.8Mm vs est. $615.02Mm; reaffirms prior FY25 guide.

• Enphase Energy (ENPH) Q4 adj EPS $0.94 vs est. $0.72, adj op Inc $120.4Mm vs est. $100.4Mm on revs $382.7Mm vs est. $377.6Mm, adj gr mgn 53.2%.
• FMC Corp. (FMC) Q4 adj EPS $1.79, vs. est. $1.60; Q4 revs $1.22B vs. consensus $1.31B; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $3.26 to $3.70, below consensus $4.36 and sees FY25 revenue $4.15B-$4.35B vs. consensus $4.4B.
• IDEX Corp. (IEX) Q4 adj EPS $2.04 vs est. $2.02, adj EBITDA $227.5Mm vs est. $236.25Mm on revs $862.9Mm vs est. $863.82Mm, adj gr mgn 43.1%; guides Q1 organic sales -4% to -3% and adj EPS $1.18-1.24 vs est. $2.03, sees FY organic sales +1-3% and adj EPS $8.10-8.45 vs est. $8.48.
• O-I Glass (OI) Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.05) vs. est. loss (-$0.08); Q4 revs $1.5B vs. est. $1.6B; guides FY adj EPS $1.20-$1.50 vs. est. $1.47; said performance was impacted by market pressures including lower average selling prices, reduced sales volumes and temporarily higher operating costs, as they cut inventory levels.
• TotalEnergies (TTE) CEO said that Europe should negotiate to obtain a free-trade guarantee on U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), against the backdrop of an unpredictable global trade environment. U.S. President Donald Trump has just imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports, to which Beijing has responded with a 15% levy on U.S. LNG and 10% on U.S. crude oil.
• Veralto Corp. (VLTO) Q4 adj EPS $0.95 vs est. $0.89 on sales $1.345B vs est. $1.346B; guides Q1 adj EPS $0.84-0.88 vs est. $0.88.

• Fair Isaac (FICO) Q1 adj EPS $5.79 vs est. $6.07 on revs $439.968Mm vs est. $452.22Mm; guides FY revs $1.98B vs est. $1.955B and adj EPS $28.58 vs est. $29.42.
• H&R Block (HRB) Q2 adj EPS loss (-$1.73) vs. consensus loss (-$1.61); Q2 revs $179.07M which was flat y/y vs. est. $183.4M; reaffirms full year outlook consensus; Total operating expenses of $472.4M increased by $25.8M.
• Jack Henry Associates (JKHY) Q2 EPS $1.34 vs est. $1.32 on revs $573.8Mm vs est. $576.23Mm; guides FY25 revs $2.35-2.375B vs est. $2.371B and EPS $5.78-5.87 vs est. $5.84.
• Prudential (PRU) Q4 adj EPS $2.96 vs. est. $3.26; Q4 GAAP book value per share excluding AOCI $96.30; Q4 Book value per Common share of $77.62 versus $76.77 per share for the year-ago quarter; adjusted book value per Common share of $95.82 versus $96.64 per share for the year-ago quarter.
• Simon Property Group (SPG) Q4 FFO/shares $3.68 vs est. $3.41 on revs $1.58B vs est. $1.398B; guides FY FFO/share $12.40-12.65 vs est. $12.51.
• Unum (UNM) Q4 adj EPS $2.03 vs. est. $2.14; Q4 revs $3.24B vs. est. $3.29B; sees FY2025 outlook of increase in after-tax adj operating income per share of 8%-12% compared to FY24; sees FY25 core ops premium growth of 4%-7%; Q4 Book value per common share of $61.38 increased 23.0 percent compared to the year-ago quarter.
• Voya Financial (VOYA) Q4 EPS $1.40 vs. consensus $0.75; Q4 revs $2.01B vs. consensus $1.89B; said Strong results in Wealth Solutions and Investment Management for Q4 and full year were offset by higher loss ratios in Health Solutions.

• Boston Scientific (BSX) Q4 adj EPS $0.70, vs. est. $0.66; Q4 sales rose 22% y/y to $4.56B vs. est. $4.42B; guides Q1 adj EPS $0.66 to $0.68 vs. est. $0.65 and net sales reported basis +17% to +19% and sees FY adj EPS $2.80 to $2.87, vs. $2.81.
• Oscar Health (OSCR) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.62) vs. est. loss (-$0.58); Q4 revs $2.39B vs. est. $2.47B; sees FY25 revenue $11.2B-$11.3B, below consensus $11.69B and sees FY25 earnings from operations $225M-$275M; sees FY25 Medical Loss Ratio of 80.7% to 81.7%.

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q4 adj EPS $1.09 vs est. $1.08 on revs $7.66B, adj gr mgn 54%, adj op mgn 26% vs est. 26.8%; sees Q1 revs $6.8-7.4B vs est. $6.994B and adj gr mgn approx 54%; while AMD’s PC business beats expectations, its data-center business, which includes AI accelerators, misses the mark
• Disney (DIS) Q1 adj EPS $1.76 vs. est. $1.42 as revs rise 4.8% y/y to $24.69B vs. est. $24.57B; Operating income rose 31% from a year earlier to $5.1B; Still sees high-single digit adjusted EPS growth y/y, estimate +8.1% and still sees cash flow from operations about $15B, estimate $15.09B; Subscribers for the company’s flagship streaming video service, Disney+, slipped 1% from the prior quarter to 124.6M; said Q1 Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ produced an operating profit of $293M in Q1 and profit declined -5% at domestic parks.
• China’s antitrust regulator is preparing for a possible investigation into Apple’s (AAPL) policies and App Store fees, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
• US Postal Service said that it’s temporarily suspending inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong, sparking concerns that e-commerce shipments from retailers like Shein or PDD’s Temu will be affected (shares of BABA, PDD among US listed China names to watch).
• Cirrus Logic (CRUS) Q3 adj EPS $2.51 vs est. $2.12 on revs $555.7Mm vs est. $510.31Mm; guides Q4 revs $350-$410Mm, gr mgn 51-53%.
• EA Inc. (EA) Q3 GAAP EPS $1.11 vs. est. $1.08; Q3 net bookings $2.215B vs. est. $2.34B; announces $1B accelerated share repurchase; sees FY25 EPS $3.90-$4.25 vs. consensus $3.81B and backs FY25 net booking’s view $7B-$7.15B, vs. consensus $7.31B.
• Intapp Inc. (INTA) Q2 adj EPS $0.21 vs est. $0.16, adj op Inc $18.9Mm vs est. $14.6Mm o revs $121.2Mm vs est. $121.13Mm; guides Q3 revs $128.3-129.3Mm vs est. $126.45Mm, adj op Inc $18.5-19.5Mm and adj EPS $0.21-0.23 vs est. $0.19; sees FY revs $498.5-502.5Mm, adj op Inc $70.2-74.2Mm vs est. $63.87 and adj EPS $0.83-0.87 vs est. $0.75.
• Lumen Technologies (LUMN) Q4 adj EPS $0.09 vs est. ($0.05), adj EBITDA $920Mm vs est. $1.009B on revs $3.33B vs est. $3.2B; guides FY adj EBITDA $3.2-3.4B vs est. $3.39B and FCF $700-900Mm.
• Match Group (MTCH) Q4 revenue rose 1% y/y to $860M vs. est. $858.7M; Q4 adj operating income $324M vs. est. $225.3M; Q4 adj operating margin 38% and op margin 26%; posted for Q4 a -4% Y/Y decline in Payers to 14.6 million, partially offset by a 3% Y/Y increase in RPP to $19.29; guides FY25 revs $3.38B-$3.5B vs. est. $3.52B.
• Omnicom (OMC) Q4 adj EPS $2.41 vs. est. $2.39; Q4 revs $4.3B in-line with consensus $4.31B; posted 5.2% organic revenue growth for both Q4 and full year, and even higher growth in adjusted EBITA and adjusted EPS.
• Snap Inc. (SNAP) Q4 adj EPS $0.16, vs. est. $0.14; Q4 revs $1.56B vs. est. $1.55B; Q4 DAUs 453M, up 9% y/y vs. ests 450.8M; guides Q1 revs $1.33B-$1.36B vs. est. $1.36B and sees Q1 adj Ebitda $40M-$75M vs. est. $78.1M.
• Varonis Systems (VRNS) Q4 adj EPS $0.18 vs est. $0.14 on revs $158.514 vs est. $165.56Mm; guides Q1 revs $130-135Mm vs est. $129.69Mm and adj EPS ($0.06) – ($0.04) vs est. $0.05; sees FY revs $610-625Mm vs est. $624.75Mm and adj EPS $0.13-0.17 vs est. $0.32.