Morning Preview: February 06, 2025

Early Look

Thursday, February 6, 2025

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

2.00

0.01%

45,006

S&P 500

1.25

0.02%

6,087

Nasdaq

-29.50

0.14%

21,733

 

 

U.S. futures are up little changed after posting solid gains Wednesday as earnings season is in full swing with Amazon (AMZN) results after the bell being closely eyed. Investors will watch for AMZN’s cloud sales data after GOOGL cloud numbers disappointed the day prior. Earnings results from the “Mag 7” have been mixed so far, with GOOGL, MSFT, TSLA disappointing over the last 2-weeks though META, AAPL were stronger (NVDA reports later this month). Oil prices edged up from its lowest level this year as US President Donald Trump’s geopolitical positions and threats of tariffs on energy clouded the market’s outlook. U.S. stocks closed at the highs Wednesday with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq posting gains after ADP private payrolls were up 183K, topping 150K consensus showing the labor market remains strong but January ISM services came in softer than expected, including new orders falling to lowest since June while prices paid eased showing improving inflation. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 235 points to 39,066, the Shanghai Index gained 41 points to 3,270, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 294 points to 20,891. In Europe, the German DAX is up 143 points to 21,729, while the FTSE 100 gains about 100 points to 8,722. The pound is among the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.6% to 1.2425 vs. the greenback having extended the lows after UK construction PMI came in notably below estimates, and ahead of the Bank of England policy meeting this morning where a 25bps cut to 4.5% is expected. In commodities gold prices hit record highs for the fifth day in a row around $2,900 an ounce. Along with earnings results, potential tariff and policy comments out of DC, investors await the nonfarm jobs data tomorrow as well.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index gained 23.60 points, or 0.39%, to 6,061.48.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 317.24 points, or 0.71%, to 44,873.28.
  • The Nasdaq Composite climbed 38.32 points, or 0.19%, to 19,692.33.
  • The Russell 2000 Index advanced 26.03 points, or 1.14% to 2,316.23.

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 6:00 AM ET                  Challenger Layoffs for January
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 213K
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.874M
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Nonfarm Productivity for Q4…est. +1.4%
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Unit Labor Costs for Q4…est. +3.4%
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
  • 2:30 PM ET                   Fed’s Waller Gives Remarks on the Future of Payments

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: AB AGCO APD ARW BDC BDX BMY BTU BWA CME CMS COP EFX EMBC ENTG GTES HAE HII HLT HON HSY IDCC IQV ITT K KVUE LEA LEE LH LIN LLY LNC LQDT MCFT MDU MKTX MMS MTSI OMCL OWL PATK PBH PM PTEN PTON RBLX RL SNA SPB SPH TEX TPR TW UAA VVV WMG WMS XEL XPO YUM ZBH
  • Earnings After the Close: AFRM AMRK AMZN ATR BILL BYD CDP CLFD CNO CPT CRNC CUZ DOCS EGP EHC ELF ESE EXPE EXPO FARM FBIN FTNT G GPRO HUBG IBEX IIIV ILMN LESL LEU LGF/A LITE MATW MCHP MHK MPWR MTD MTX NET NGVH NMIH ONTO PCTY PECO PFG PINE PINS POST POWI POWL PRO QLYS QNST REG RGA SKX SONO SSNC STEP SYNA TTWO ULH VCTR VREX VRSN WERN

Other Key Events:

  • BMO Capital 22nd Annual Infrastructure & Utilities Conference, 2/6 in Toronto, CA
  • Oppenheimer Healthcare Winter CEO & Investor Summit, 2/3-2/6

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

0.57

71.60

Brent

0.54

75.16

Gold

-4.00

2,889.10

EUR/USD

-0.0043

1.0359

JPY/USD

-0.20

152.39

10-Year Note

+0.016

4.436%

 

World News

  • Bank of Japan board member Tamura says Japan’s neutral rates likely around 1% at least; said monetary conditions will remain easy even if BOJ raises rates to 0.75%; The US dollar falls -0.5% initially below 152 vs. the Japanese yen, its lowest since Dec. 12 after comments, but back up to 152.40 now.
  • The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -9.6 vs 7 last week. Bulls fall to 33.3% from 41%, Neutrals fall to 23.8% from 25%, Bears rise to 42.9% from 34%.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

  • Ford Motor (F) Q4 EPS $0.39 vs. est. $0.32; Q4 revs $48.2B vs. est. $42.83B; reports Q4 adjusted EBIT $2.1B; sees FY25 adjusted EBIT $7B-$8.5B, FY25 adjusted free cash flow $3.5B-$4.5B, capital spending $8B-$9B; projected up to $5.5 billion in losses on its electric vehicle and software operations this year.
  • BBB Foods (TBBB) 21M share Secondary priced at $28.25 (upsized deal from 17.5M shares)
  • Costco (COST) said January total comp sales +7.5%, vs. est. +4.9%
  • Hilton (HLT) Q4 adj EPS $1.76 vs. consensus $1.68 on in-line revs of $2.78B and Q4 RevPAR +3.5%; sees Q1 adj EPS $1.57-$1.63, below consensus $1.65 and Q1 system-wide comparable RevPAR, on a currency neutral basis, is projected to increase between 2.5%-3.5% y/y; expects 2025 adjusted profit between $7.71 and $7.82 per share, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $8.02 per share.
  • Kirkland’s secures $25m investment from Beyond, Inc. (BYON), enhancing liquidity and strategic partnership; shareholders approved the deal with 97% support, giving beyond 40% stake in the company.
  • O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Q4 EPS $9.50 vs. est. $9.75; Q4 sales rose 6.9% y/y to $4.1B vs. est. $4.04B; Q4 comparable sales +4.4% vs. +3.4% y/y, and above est. +2.63%; Guides EPS $42.60-$43.10 vs. est. $45.04 and sees FY revs $17.4B-$17.7B, vs. est. $17.59B; sees year capex $1.2B-$1.3B.

Energy

  • Helmich & Payne (HP) Q1 EPS $0.71 vs. est. $0.67; Q1 revs $677.3M vs. est. $692.6M; Guides Q2 North America Solutions direct margins $240M to $260M and guides FY gross capital expenditures $360M to $395M, saw $290M to $325M, vs. est. $346.5M.
  • Murphy USA (MUSA) Q4 EPS $6.96 vs est. $6.48, adj EBITDA $278.3Mm vs est. $269.63Mm on revs $4.71B vs est. $4.835B.
  • Weatherford Int’l (WFRD) Q4 EPS $1.50 vs est. $1.30, adj EBITDA $326Mm vs est. $318.5Mm on revs $1.341B vs est. $1.356B.

Financials

  • Aflac (AFL) Q4 adj EPS $1.56 vs. consensus $1.62; Q4 revs $5.4B vs. est. $4.16B; average yen/dollar exchange rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 152.35, or 2.8% weaker than the average rate of 148.11 y/y; Shareholders’ equity was $26.1B, or $47.45 per share, at December 31, 2024, compared with $22.0B, or $38.00 per share y/y.
  • Allstate (ALL) Q4 adj EPS $7.67 vs est. $6.30 on revs $16.5B vs est. $13.858B; sees wildfires related losses about $1.1B pre-tax net of reinsurance.
  • AvalonBay (AVB) increases quarterly dividend 2.9% to $1.75 per share; Q4 core FFO $2.80 vs. consensus $2.83; Q4 Same Store Residential revenue increased $20,959,000, or 3.2%, to $670,148,000; sees FY25 core FFO $11.14-$11.64, vs. consensus $11.57; Q4 Same Store Residential operating expenses increased $10,705,000, or 5.4%, to $208,065,000 and Same Store Residential NOI increased $10,254,000, or 2.3%, to $462,083,000.
  • Corpay Inc. (CPAY) Q4 adj EPS $5.36 vs est. $5.35 on revs $1.034B vs est. $1.051B; guides FY revs $4.35-4.45B vs est. $4.454B and adj EPS $20.75-21.25 vs est. $21.92.
  • MetLife (MET) Q4 adj EPS $2.09, in-line with consensus $2.09; Q4 revs $18.67B vs. consensus $19.49B; Q4 Book value of $34.28 per share, down 4% from $35.85 per share at December 31, 2023; Q4 adjusted book value of $54.81 per share, up 2% from $53.75 per share at December 31, 2023.

Healthcare

  • Align Technologies (ALGN) is raising prices on Clear Aligners due to expected impact of tariffs; Q4 adj EPS $2.44 vs est. $2.44 on revs $995.2Mm vs est. $993.51Mm; guides Q1 revs $965-985Mm vs est. $1.029B, adj op mgn down yr/yr by about 1 PT; sees FY revs +low-single digits vs est. +5.87% and adj op mgn approx 22.5%.
  • Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) files $1B mixed shelf.
  • Hologic (HOLX) Q1 adj EPS $1.03 vs. est. $1.02, Q1 revs $1.02B vs. est. $1.02B and Q1 adj Ebitda $326M vs. est. $332M; backs FY25 adjusted EPS view $4.25-$4.35 vs. est. $4.25 and lower FY25 revenue view to $4.05B-$4.1B from $4.15B-4.2B (est. $4.15B) citing currency headwinds for reduced FY25 revenue guidance.
  • Ironwood Pharma (IRWD) will be replaced in the S&P 600 on 2/10 by Millrose Properties (MRP), a spin-off from Lennar Corp (LEN) which is to be completed on 2/7.
  • McKesson (MCK) Q3 adj EPS $8.03 vs. est. $7.99; Q3 revs $95.3B vs. est. $95.86B; narrows FY25 adjusted EPS view to $32.55-$32.95 from $32.40-$33.00; announce the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire a controlling interest in PRISM Vision Holdings.
  • Molina Healthcare (MOH) Q4 adj EPS $5.05 vs. est. $5.72 as revs rose 16% y/y to $10.50B vs. est. $10.3B; said Q4 medical care ratio 90.2% vs. 89.1% y/y; issued its full year 2025 earnings guidance with expected premium revenue of approximately $42 billion and adjusted earnings of at least $24.50 per diluted share.
  • Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) Q4 EPS ($0.32) vs est. ($0.28), op exp $46.238Mm; held cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $903M, compared to $362M as of December 31, 2023.

Industrials and Materials

  • Quanta Services (PWR), MasTec (MTZ), Primoris Servies (PRIM) were among names that slipped late Wednesday after reports the US Army Corps of Engineers has temporarily paused permitting on 168 renewable energy projects across the US to comply with President Donald Trump’s fossil fuels mandate. “Of the approximately 11,000 pending permit actions by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the agency has temporarily paused evaluation on 168 (those focused on regulated activities associated with renewable energy projects), pending feedback from the Administration,” Army Corps spokesman said Wednesday.
  • Air Products (APD) Q1 adj EPS $2.86 vs. est. $2.85; Q1 revs $2.93B vs. est. $2.94B; sees Q2 adjusted EPS $2.75-$2.85, below consensus $3.07; raises quarterly dividend; sees FY capex $4.5B-$5B.
  • Blue Bird Corp. (BLBD) Q1 adj EPS $0.92 vs est. $0.82, adj EBITDA $45.8Mm vs est. $41.6Mm on revs $313.9Mm vs est. $308.1Mm; guides FY revs $1.4-1.5B vs est. $1.462B, adj EBITDA $200Mm vs est. $197.57Mm and adj FCF $40-60Mm.
  • Corteva Inc. (CTVA) Q4 adj EPS $0.32, vs. est. $0.31; Q4 revs $4.2B vs. est. $4.01B; sees FY25 operating EPS $2.70-$2.95, vs. consensus $3.19 and sees FY25 revenue $17.2B-$17.6B vs. est. $17.26B; says beginning to see stabilization in the Crop Protection industry, with continued volume gains in Q4, yet expect price pressures.
  • Crown Holdings (CCK) Q4 adj EPS $1.59 vs est. $1.51 on sales $2.903B vs est. $2.89B; guides FY adj EPS $6.60-7.00 vs est. $6.80 and adj FCF approx $800Mm.
  • Honeywell (HON) Q4 adj EPS $2.47 tops consensus $2.32 on better revs $10.09B vs. est. $9.83B; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $10.10-$10.50 vs. consensus $10.93 and guides FY25 revenue $39.6B-$40.6B, vs. est. $41.22B, with organic sales growth in the range of 2% to 5%; said to pursue full separation of Automation, Aerospace Technologies
  • Linde (LIN) Q4 adj EPS $3.97 vs. est. $3.93; Q2 revs $8.3B vs. est. $8.39B; guides Q1 adjusted EPS guidance $3.85-3.95, represents 7%-9% growth ex. FX and full-year 2025 adj EPS guidance $16.15-$16.55, represents 8%-11% growth ex. FX
  • Symbotic (SYM) shares tumble; Q1 EPS loss (-$0.03) vs. est. $0.03 and revs $487M vs. est. $490.04M; Q1 cash and cash equivalents increased by $176M from the prior quarter; sees Q2 revenue $510M-$530M vs. est. $533.3M.

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • Arm Holdings (ARM) Q3 EPS $0.39 vs. est. $0.34; Q3 total revs rose 19% y/y to $983M vs. est. $946.8M; forecasts Q4 revs $1.18B to $1.28B, vs. est. $1.23B; narrowed its revenue guidance to a range of $3.94B-$4.04B from $3.8B- $4.1B and also narrowed its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) Q1 adj EPS $3.41 vs est. $2.96 on revs $11.67B vs est. $10.927B, sees Q2 revs $10.3-11.2B vs est. $10.344B and adj EPS $2.70-2.90 vs est. $2.69.
  • Alpha & Omega Semi (AOSL) Q2 adj EPS $0.09 vs est. $0.08 on revs $173.2Mm vs est. $170.03Mm, adj gr mgn 24.2%; guides Q3 revs $148-168Mm vs est. $161.13Mm, adj gr mgn 21.5-23.5%, adj op exp $38.5-40.5Mm.
  • American Superconductor (AMSC) Q3 EPS $0.06 vs est. $0.07 on revs $61.403Mm vs est. $56.67Mm; guides Q4 revs $59-63Mm vs est. $59.17Mm and adj EPS $0.07 vs est. $0.09.
  • Cognizant Technologies (CTSH) Q4 adj EPS $1.21 vs. consensus $1.13 and Q4 revs $5.08B vs. est. $5.07B; raises quarterly dividend 3%; sees FY25 EPS $4.90 -$5.06 vs. est. $4.96; sees FY25 revs $20.3B-$20.8B vs. est. $20.86B.
  • Coherent Corp. (COHR) Q2 adj EPS $0.95 vs est. $0.69 o revs $1.435B vs est. $1.374B, adj op mgn 18.5%; guides Q3 revs $1.39-1.48B vs est. $1.403B, adj gr mgn 37-39%, adj EPS $0.75-0.95 vs est. $0.76.
  • Digital Turbine (APPS) Q3 adj EPS $0.13 vs est. ($0.01), adj EBITDA $22Mm vs est. $17.54Mm on revs $134.6Mm vs est. $123.68M; guides FY revs $485-490Mm vs est. $477.04M and adj EBITDA $69-71M vs est. $65.37M.
  • Impinj (PI) shares tumbled; Q4 adj EPS $0.48 vs est. $0.48, adj EBITDA $15Mm vs est. $15.79Mm on revs $91.569Mm vs est. $93Mm; guides Q1 revs $70-73Mm vs est. $93.26Mm, adj EBITDA $1.1-2.6Mm vs est. $15.17Mm and adj EPS $0.06-0.11 vs est. $0.43.
  • LiveRamp (RAMP) Q3 adj EPS $0.55 vs est. $0.41, adj op Inc $45Mm vs est. $37.27Mm on revs $195Mm vs est. $191.53Mm, adj gr mgn 74%; guides Q4 revs $184-186Mm vs est. $186.28Mm and adj op Inc $22Mm vs est. $29.45Mm.
  • Strategy (MSTR) said booked impairment losses from digital assets of $1.01B in the quarter, compared with $39.2M y/y; said began buying and holding bitcoin in 2020 and held about 471,107 bitcoins as of Feb. 2; Q4 net loss was $670.8M, or $3.03 per share, in the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with a profit of $89.1M y/y.
  • Sonos (SONO) announces a reduction in force involving 12% of employees.
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) shares tumble; Q1 adj EPS $1.60 vs. consensus $1.57; Q1 revs $1.068B vs. est. $1.07B; announced that Philip Brace has been appointed president and chief executive officer and a member of the board of directors, effective Feb. 17, 2025; authorizes up to $2B stock buyback; sees Q2 adjusted EPS $1.20 at midpoint vs. consensus $1.19 and sees Q2 revenue $935M-$965M vs. consensus $941.15M; shares tumbled after comments on the conference call saying its content position expected to decline 20%-25% and that it lost designs at large customer noting the decline to start impacting revenue in 4Q25 and throughout FY26.
  • TTM Technologies (TTMI) Q4 adj ESP $0.60 vs est. $0.47 on revs $650.965Mm vs est. $630.21Mm; guides Q1 revs $600-640Mm vs est. $603.53Mm and adj EPS $0.37-0.43 vs est. $0.37.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.