Early Look

Friday, February 7, 2025

U.S. futures are flat ahead of this mornings January nonfarm payrolls report (at 8:30 am et), which is expected to show hiring slowed to start 2025 while the unemployment rate was flat. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yields is steady at 4.43% and gold prices remain not far off record highs ahead of the report.  In December, the US economy added 256,000 jobs, far above economists’ expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% from 4.2% the month prior. This month economists are looking for a rise of 170,000 jobs and unemployment to remain steady at 4.1%. Overnight Amazon (AMZN) reported quarterly results ahead of expectations, but softer Q1 guidance pushed shares lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both ended higher on Thursday, spiking in the final minutes to close at the highs for a second straight day and remain on track for weekly advances. The gains were led by financials (XLF) which closed at all-time highs (and is up 7.82% YTD for the top gainer in the S&P). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -279 points to 38,787, the Shanghai Index rose 33 points to 3,303, and the Hang Seng Index gained 241 points to 21,133. In Europe, the German DAX is up 26 points to 21,928, while the FTSE 100 is down -23 points to 8,703. Big earnings movers to the upside last night include AFRM, BYD, DOCS, EXPE, FTNT, LEU, MPWR, NET, PINS, SYNA and TTWO and decliners include AMZN, BILL, ELF, GPRO, NBIX, and SKX.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -125.65 points, or 0.28%, to 44,747.63.
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 99.66 points, or 0.51%, to 19,791.99.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -9.11 points, or 0.39% to 2,307.12.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Private Payrolls for January…est. +141K (prior +223K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Manufacturing Payrolls for January…est. (-2K) vs. prior (-13K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unemployment Rate for January…est. 4.1%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Average Hourly Earnings M/M for January…est. +0.3%
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Confidence, Feb-prelim…est. 71.1
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 10:00 AM ET                Wholesale Inventory M/M for December…est. (-0.5%)
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
• 3:00 PM ET                   Consumer Credit for December

• Boyd Gaming (BYD) Q4 adj EPS $1.96 vs est. $1.79; Q4 revs $1.04B vs. est. $1B; said Online segment achieved strong revenue and Adjusted EBITDAR growth during the fourth quarter.
• Elf Beauty (ELF) Q3 adj EPS $0.74 misses the $0.76 estimate and Q3 revs $355.3M vs. est. $330.39M; guides FY25 adj EPS outlook to $3.27-$3.32 from $3.47-$3.53 and lowers FY25 sales outlook to $1.3B-$1.31B from $1.315B-$1.335B, saying it takes a prudent approach to guide given softer than expected trends in January.
• Expedia (EXPE) Q4 adj EPS $2.39 vs est. $2.04, adj EBITDA $643Mm vs est. $570.9Mm on revs $3.184B vs est. $3.07B, gr bookings $24.422B; reinstate quarterly dividend.
• Mohawk Industries (MHK) Q4 adj EPS $1.95 vs. consensus $1.85; Q4 revenue $2.64B vs. est. $2.54B; said the negative sales impact from U.S. hurricanes was limited to approximately $10 million; Global Ceramic Segment’s net sales increased 1.5% as reported, or a 1.2% increase on an adjusted basis and Flooring Rest of the World Segment’s net sales decreased by 2.1% as reported, or 4.8% on an adjusted basis.
• Nikola (NKLA) shares fall after the Wall Street Journal reported the company is working with its law firm Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman over a possible sale or restructuring and is close to filing for bankruptcy.
• Skecher’s (SKX) Q4 EPS $0.65 vs est. $0.75 on sales $2.212B vs est. $2.22B; guides Q1 sales $2.4-2.43B vs est. $2.486B and EPS $1.10-1.15 vs est. $1.55.
• Tesla’s (TSLA) sales of China-made electric vehicles fell -11.5% to 63,238 units in January from a year earlier, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed on Friday. Deliveries of China-made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles were down -32.6% from December. Chinese rival BYD sold 296,446 passenger vehicles last month, a 47.5% increase on the year, but a 41.8% decline from the prior month.

• Powell industries (POWL) Q1 EPS $2.86 vs est. $2.61 on revs $241Mm vs est. $232.62Mm.
• Werner Enterprises (WERN) Q4 adj EPS $0.08 vs. est. $0.22; Q4 revs $754.7M, vs. est. $763.9M; Q4 adj operating margin 1.6%; sees 2025 CapEx $185M-$235M and sees 2025 effective tax rate 25%-26%; said 4q results a reflection of the ongoing unprecedented rise in verdicts and litigation settlements across the industry.

• Camden Property (CPT) Q4 FFO/SHR $1.46 vs est. $1.70; guides Q1 core FFO/share $1.65-1.70 vs est. $1.67, sees FY core FFO/SHR $6.60-6.90 vs est. $6.80.
• Cousins Properties (CUZ) Q4 FFO $0.69 vs. est. $0.68; Q4 revenue $225.33M vs. est. $215.34M; guides 2025 FFO $2.73-$2.83, vs. consensus $2.73
• Paylocity Holding (PCTY) Q2 EPS $0.66 vs est. $0.77, adj EBITDA $126.2Mm vs est. $118.18Mm, on revs $376.98Mm vs est. $367.02Mm; guides Q3 adj EBITDA $171-175Mm vs est. $170.1Mm and FY adj EBITDA $542-550Mm vs est. $535.77Mm.
• Principal Financial (PFG) Q4 adj EPS $1.94 vs consensus $1.93; noted returned $1.7 billion to shareholders in 2024, including $1.0 billion of share repurchases, delivering on our commitment to return excess capital to shareholders, while maintaining our strong capital position; announces $1.5B share repurchase.
• Regency Centers (REG) Q4 FFO $1.09 vs. consensus $1.07; Increased Same Property NOI for Q4 by 4.0% year-over-year, and for the full year by 3.6%; Increased Same Property percent leased by 60 basis points sequentially and 100 basis points year-over-year to a new record high of 96.7%.

• Illumina (ILMN) Q4 core adj EPS $0.95 vs. est. $0.92; Q4 revs $1.1B, in-line with consensus $1.1B; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $4.50-$4.65 vs. est. $4.46 and sees FY25 revenue $4.28B-$4.4B vs est. $4.39B.
• Mettler-Toledo (MTD) Q4 adj EPS $12.41 vs est. $11.72; Q4 revs $1.045B vs. est. $1.01B; raises FY25 EPS view to $42.34-$43 from $41.85-$42.50 (est. $42.12); anticipates local currency sales will increase approximately 3%, which includes a headwind of approximately 1.5% from the previously disclosed shipping delays in Q4.
• Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Q4 adj EPS $1.69 vs est. $1.56 on revs $627.7Mm vs est. $628.99Mm; sees FY25 net product sales $2.5-2.6B.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO) said its once-weekly mim8 is well-tolerated and efficacious in children living with hemophilia a with and without inhibitors; announced interim results from phase 3 frontier3 trial of 70 children (aged 1-11 years old) with haemophilia a with and without inhibitors; expects mim8 regulatory submission during 2025; the phase 3 frontier3 interim analysis data showed that 74.3% of children on once-weekly mim8 prophylaxis experienced zero treated bleeds

• Cloudflare (NET) Q4 adj EPS $0.19 vs. est. $0.18; Q4 revs $459.9M vs. est. $452.12M; said for Q1, saw record growth in our largest customers, those that spend more than $1 million with Cloudflare per year-closing the year with 173 and added 55 of those customers in 2024; guides Q1 below ests and sees FY25 adjusted EPS $0.79-$0.80 vs. est. $0,85 and revenue $2.09B-$2.094B vs consensus $2.1B.
• GoPro (GPRO) reports Q4 adjusted EPS loss (-$0.09) vs. est. loss (-$0.12); Q4 revs $200.88M vs. est. $196.5M; sees Q1 adjusted EPS loss (13c)-(3c) vs. est. loss (-$0.08); sees Q1 revenue $125M plus or minus $10M, down $20% y/y, vs. consensus $136.25M; sees Q1 gross margin 35% at the midpoint of guidance.
• Fortinet (FTNT) Q4 EPS $0.74 vs. est. $0.61; Q4 revs $1.66B vs. est. $1.6B; Q4 total billings were $2B in Q4; said non-GAAP operating margin increased 720 basis points y/y to a company record of 39%, while revenue grew 17%; sees FY25 EPS $2.41-$2.47 vs. est. $2.42 and sees FY25 revenue $6.65B-$6.85B vs. est. $6.63B.
• Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Q2 adj EPS $0.42 vs est. $0.36 on revs $402.2Mm vs est. $389.76Mm, adj gr mgn 32.3%, adj op mgn 7.9%; guides Q3 revs $410-425Mm vs est. $411.84Mm and adj EPS $0.47-0.53 vs est. $0.42.
• Microchip Technology (MCHP) Q3 EPS $0.20 vs. est. $0.28; Q3 revs $1.026B vs. est. $1.05B; guides Q4 non-GAAP EPS $0.05-$0.15 below consensus $0.27 and revs $920M-$1.0B vs. consensus $1.05B; Q4 capex expected to be about $23M and capex for FY25 are expected to be about $135M.
• Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) Q4 EPS $4.09 vs. est. $3.98; Q4 revs $621.67M vs. est. $608.09M; guides Q1 revenue $610M-$630M vs. consensus $584.38M while sees Q1 gross margin 55.4%-56%, and GAAP operating expenses between $180.2M-$186.2M; raises dividend.
• Netflix (NFLX) is considering a bid for Formula One’s (FWONA FWONK) U.S. TV rights, according to a report from The Athletic on Friday.
• Onto Innovation (ONTO) Q4 adj EPS $1.51 vs est. $1.41 on revs $263.939Mm vs est. $260.5Mm, gr mgn 50%; guides Q1 revs $260-274Mm vs est. $267.4Mm and adj EPS $1.40-1.54 vs est. $1.49.
• Pinterest (PINS) Q4 adj EPS $0.56 vs est. $0.65, adj EBITDA $470.943Mm vs est. $444.6MM on revs $1.154B, vs est. $1.139B; guides Q1 revs $837-852Mm vs est. $832.78Mm (FX impact about 2 points headwind), sees adj EBITDA $155-170Mm vs est. $140.75Mm.
• Qualys Inc. (QLYS) Q4 EPS $1.60 vs. est. $1.37; Q4 revs $159.2M vs. est. $156.27M; sees FY25 non-GAAP EPS $5.50-$5.90 below consensus $6.09 and FY25 revenue $645.0M-$657.0M vs. est. $651.13M.
• SS&C Technologies (SSNC) Q4 adj EPS $1.58 vs est. $1.32, adj op Inc $581.9Mm vs est. $569.2Mm on adj revs $1.5361B vs est. $1.483B; guides FY adj revs $6.085-6.245B vs est. $6.159B and adj EPS $5.64-5.96 vs est. $5.75
• Synaptics (SYNA) Q2 adj EPS $0.92 vs est. $0.86 on revs $267.2Mm vs est. $265.6Mm, gr mgn 53.6%; guides Q3 revs $250-280Mm vs est. $253.27Mm and adj EPS $0.65-1.05 vs est. $0.72.
• Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) Q3 EPS ($0.71), adj EBITDA $88.8Mm on revs $1.36B vs est. $1.39B; guides Q4 revs $1.52-1.62B vs est. $1.538B and adj EBITDA $223-277Mm vs est. $327.92Mm.
• ViaSat (VSAT) Q3 EPS $0.11 vs. est. $0.05; Q3 revs $1.12B vs. est. $1.13B; said remain on track for full fiscal year guidance; said looking ahead to FY26, continue to expect yoy rev and adj ebitda growth with capital expenditures of about $1.3B.