Early Look

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

U.S. futures are pulling back slightly after markets rebounded on Monday, ahead of Fed Chairman Powell speech as tariff headlines and inflation concerns remain in investors minds. U.S. stocks advanced on Monday, as investors continued to assess President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and awaited economic data due later this week (CPI, PPI, retail sales) as well as testimony by Fed Chairman Powell today and tomorrow on Capitol Hill (at 10:00 am et both days) on the economy and monetary policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up roughly 0.4% after recording back-to-back losses, while the S&P 500 closed up about 0.7% and the Nasdaq outperformed rising 1%. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 14 points to 38,801, the Shanghai Index fell -4 points to 3,318, and the Hang Seng Index fell -227 points to 21,294. In Europe, the German DAX is up 39 points to 21,951, while the FTSE 100 is up a few points to 8,770. Spot gold continues posting record highs above $2,900-handle as President Trump sets 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, set to go into effect in March. The dollar strengthens against most FX majors, but trading ranges remain tight. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen vowed “firm and proportionate countermeasures’ in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. Treasury yields edge higher with the 10-yr back above 4.5% while oil prices rise a second day. Another busy round of earnings today as well.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 167.01 points, or 0.38%, to 44,470.41.
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 190.87 points, or 0.98%, to 19,714.27.
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 8.25 points, or 0.36%, to 2,287.96.

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:50 AM ET                  Fed’s Hammack Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                Fed Chairman Powell speaking to the Senate Banking Committee
• 12:00 PM ET WASDE Crop report for February
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes
• 3:30 PM ET                   Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ADC ADPT AIG AIZ AKR ALSN ANGI ATEX ATOM BHF BL CFLT DASH DIOD ECG EPM ES ET EW EXEL FORR FRSH FSP GILD GLAD GNSS HIW IAC IVT KRG LYFT MCRI MIR OS PAL PBI PRI RRR SAGE ST TDC UFCS UPST WELL WPC ZG

• Oppenheimer 35th Annual Healthcare Life Sciences Conference, 2/11-2/12

• U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index corrects more than anticipated, hitting a more than 6-year high at the end of last year, but dropped back 2.3 points in January to 102.8. Seven of the 10 components declined, with capital spending plans falling the most since 1995.
• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen vowed “firm and proportionate countermeasures’ in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports.
• The deadline for federal workers to resign and take the White House up on its deferred resignation offer has reportedly been delayed again, pending the decision of a federal judge in Boston.

• Coty Inc. (COTY) Q2 adj EBITDA $390.7Mm vs est. $268.2Mm on revs $1.669B vs est. $1.721B, adj gr mgn 66.8%, says APAC region and FX headwinds weigh on Q2 sales; sees 2H25 LFL sales trends broadly consistent with Q2 LFL trend at -1% to -2%; cuts FY25 EPS view to $0.50-$0.52 from $054-$0.57.

• DuPont (DD) Q4 adj EPS $1.13 vs. est. $0.98; Q4 revs $3.1B vs. est. $3.07B; estimate first quarter 2025 net sales of about $3.025B which assumes mid-single digit organic growth and a foreign currency headwind of approximately 1.5% on a year over year basis; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $4.30-$4.40, vs. consensus $4.31.
• First Solar (FSLR) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho with a $259 price target.
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) shares tumbled; Q4 EPS loss (-$0.32) vs. est. loss (-$0.22); Q4 revs fell -49% y/y to $186.79M vs. est. $380M; said rev decline primarily driven by the pronounced backend nature of expected revenue for full year 2025 compared to the revenue distribution seen in full year 2024.
• Hess Midstream LP (HESM) announces offering of 10M Class A shares for holders.
• IonQ (IONQ) and General Dynamics Information Technology, a business unit of General Dynamics (GD), announced a partnership to bring the power of quantum computing to government and defense sectors.
• Leidos (LDOS) Q4 EPS $2.37 vs. consensus $2.28; Q4 revs $4.4B vs. consensus $4.13B; sees FY25 non-GAAP EPS $10.35-$10.75 vs. consensus $10.54 and sees revenue $16.9B-$17.3B vs. consensus $16.97B; sees adjusted EBIDTA margin mid-high 12%.
• Phillips 66 (PSX) shares rise after The Wall Street Journal reported that Elliott Investment Management has built a stake of more than $2.5 billion in the oil refiner.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) announced it will soon launch a satellite on a dedicated Electron mission, the first of a bulk order of multiple missions for real-time space-based intelligence company BlackSky (BKSY).
• Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) Q4 EPS $1.31 vs est. $1.27, adj EBITDA $102.035Mm vs est. $97.26Mm on sales $517.429Mm; guides FY op mgn 18.5-20.5% with low end based on flat to down housing starts yr/yr.
• Steel Dynamics (STLD) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc saying President Trump’s increasing threats to tax key trading partners of the U.S. should lift U.S. steel pricing sentiment over the next several months.

• Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Q4 EPS $2.42 vs est. $1.82 on gr premiums written $4.756B vs st $4.695B, adj combined ratio 79%.
• Cincinnati Financial (CINF) Q4 adj EPS $3.14 vs est. $1.90, adj op Inc $497Mm on revs $2.538B vs est. $2.629B, combined ratio 84.7%.
• CoreCivic inc. (CXW) Q4 normalized FFO/share $0.39 vs est. $0.34, adj EPS $0.16 vs est. $0.10, adj EBITDA $74.2Mm vs. est. $66.3Mm; guides FY25 FFO/share $1.35-1.50 and EBITDA $281-293Mm.
• Hamilton Lane (HLNE) 1.57M share Spot Secondary priced at $160.25.
• SelectQuote (SLQT) shares rise as raises FY25 revenue view to $1.5B-$1.575B from prior $1.425B-$1.525B (est. $1.46b) and boosts FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $115M-$140M from $100M-$130M; said signed a $350M strategic investment from funds managed by Bain Capital, Morgan Stanley Private Credit, and Newlight Partners.
• The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) announced a preliminary estimate of catastrophe losses relating to the January 2025 California wildfires is $1.7 billion pre-tax ($1.3 billion after-tax). The preliminary estimate includes losses from the Company’s personal and commercial segments, including the Company’s Fidelis quota share, as well as estimated assessments from the California FAIR Plan and recoveries from reinsurance.
• Vornado Realty (VNO) Q4 revs rose 3.6% y/y to $457.8M vs. est. $441.7M; Q4 FFO adj $0.61 vs. $0.63 y/y.

• Humana (HUM) forecast annual profit slightly below Wall Street estimates as sees 2025 adjusted profit per share of about $16.25 compared to analysts’ estimate of $16.71 per share; posted slightly larger than expected Q4 EPS loss of (-$2.16) vs. est. (-$2.12) on better revs $29.2B vs. $28.84B est.
• Inspire Medical (INSP) Q4 EPS $1.15 vs. est. $0.72; Q4 revs $239.72M vs. est. $237.41M; sees FY25 EPS $2.10-$2.20 above consensus $1.94 while backs FY25 revenue view $940M-$955M (est. $948.66M); discloses civil investigative demand from DOJ concerning allegations of false claims.
• Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Q4 EPS $3.67 vs. est. $3.12; Q4 revs rose 7.7% y/y to $536.6M vs. est. $534.99M; sees FY25 EPS $11.93-$12.69 vs. consensus $12.29 and sees FY25 revenue $2.11B-$2.21B (est. $2.11B); Net new business awards were $529.7M in Q4, down -13.8% y/y.
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Q4 EPS $3.98 vs. consensus $4.02; Q4 revs $2.91B vs. est. $2.78B; sees FY25 revenue $11.75B-$12.0B, vs. consensus $11.85B while sees FY25 R&D, and SG&A expenses of $4.9B-$5.0B; said Diverse late-stage clinical pipeline accelerates with four programs in pivotal development.

• Astera Labs (ALAB) Q4 adj EPS $0.37 vs. est. $0.26; Q4 revs $141.4M vs. est. $128M; Q4 gross margin 74%; guides Q1 EPS $0.28-$0.29 and revs $151M-$155M.
• Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) Q4 EPS $1.54 vs. consensus $1.25; Q4 revs $252.4M vs. est. $244.95M; guided Q1 revenue to $185M vs. est. $221.5M; Q4 Gross margin was 46.0%, compared to 42.9% in the third quarter.
• Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) Q4 EPS was $0.45 vs. est. $0.37; Q4 revs $222.2M vs. est. $212.45M; sees Q1 EPS $0.02-$0.08 vs. est. $0.12 and revs in range $120M-$135M, below consensus $149.39M.
• Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) Q4 adj EPS $0.15 vs. est. $0.19; Q4 revs $117.4M vs. est. $117.06M; sees Q1 adjusted EPS $0.20-$0.24 vs. est. $0.21 and revs $115M-$125M vs. est. $118.75M; announced multiple new executive leadership team members.
• SPS Commerce (SPSC) Q4 EPS $0.89 vs. est. $0.87; Q4 revs $170.91M vs. est. $169.29M; sees Q1 EPS $0.82-$0.84 vs. est. $0.92 and revs $178.5M-$180M (est. $179.19M); sees Q1 adjusted EBITDA $49.5M-$50.5M.