Morning Preview: February 20, 2025

Early Look

Thursday, February 20, 2025

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

-101.00

0.23%

44,610

S&P 500

-17.25

0.28%

6,145

Nasdaq

-69.50

0.31%

22,180

 

 

U.S. futures edge slightly lower after modest gains on Wednesday, as the dollar slides against the Japanese yen on hawkish BOJ commentary and as gold spikes to record highs on geopolitical concerns. U.S. stocks finished higher on Wednesday, as the S&P 500 (SX) scored its third record close of the year (and 2nd in a row), while the Dow and Nasdaq also finished higher. Treasury yields dipped ever so slightly, finishing lower for the third time in the past four sessions after the Fed’s January meeting minutes were released. The US stocks market continues to have an underlying bid to it, failing to falter under scores of potential pitfalls such as higher inflation readings, interest rate cuts being pushed out later in 2025 and trade/tariff concerns as any “dip” in stocks is quickly bought.

 

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -486 points to 38,678, the Shanghai Index was little changed at 3,350, and the Hang Seng Index declined -367 points to 22,576. Weakness in Asia came after the Japanese yen strengthened +0.9% against the dollar, moving to 1.50, its strongest level since December amid growing speculation the Bank of Japan will hike rates sooner rather than later. In Europe, the German DAX is up 122 points to 22,555, while the FTSE 100 is down -13 points to 8,698. Treasuries are steady, with US 10-year yields near flat at 4.52%. April gold prices +1.15% or $34 to a new record high of $2,970 an ounce while Bitcoin bounces another 1% t0 $97,250.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index advanced 14.57 points, or 0.24%, to 6,144.15.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 71.25 points, or 0.16%, to 44,627.59.
  • The Nasdaq Composite gained 14.99 points, or 0.07%, to 20,056.25.
  • The Russell 2000 Index declined -7.90 points, or 0.34% to 2,282.46.

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 215K (prior 213K)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.871M (prior 1.85M)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Business Index for February…est. 20.0 (prior 44.3)
  • 9:35 AM ET                  Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Moderated Q&A
  • 10:00 AM ET                Leading Index Change M/M for January…est. (-0.1%)
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
  • 11:00 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
  • 12:05 PM ET                Fed’s Musalem Speaks to Economic Club of NY

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: ALIT BABA BAND BAX BIGC BLDR CCRD CHH CNP CNR COLD CWK DAN DBRG DINO DNB DRS ECC EPAM FCN FRPT GCI HAS HNI IDA ITGR KLTR LAMR LAUR LKQ LNG MD PLL POOL PRM PWR RGEN SABR SHAK SO SWTX TALK TPX TRGP TRIP TRN U ULS UTZ VAL W WMT
  • Earnings After the Close: ACCO AKAM ALRM AMH AMN ARDX AXTI BBDC BCC BJRI BKNG CARG CERS COKE CPRT CTO DBX DVAX ED EIG EVH EXPI FET FIVN FND FNF FYBR GDYN GH GKOS GLPI GMED GRAL HPP INDI IRTC IVR JAKK LAW LIDR LNT LYV MP NEM NVEE OLED PODD REAL REZI RHP RIVN RMAX RNG RXT RYAN RYI SEI SEM SFM SVV TPIC TXRH UEIC VICI VICR WEAV WSC XYZ ZEUS

Other Key Events:

  • Barclays 42nd Annual Industrial Select Conference, 2/19-2/20, in Miami, FL
  • Goldman Sachs Capital Markets Forum 2025 – Powering Connections, 2/18-2/20 in Riyadh

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

0.14

72.39

Brent

0.23

76.27

Gold

34.20

2,970.30

EUR/USD

0.0018

1.0439

JPY/USD

-1.37

150.12

10-Year Note

-0.006

4.529%

 

World News

  • The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -11.3 vs -18.9 last week. Bulls rise to 29.2% from 28.4%, Neutrals rise to 30.3% from 24.3%, Bears fall to 40.5% from 47.3%.
  • U.S. crude oil and gasoline stocks rose last week while distillate inventories fell, as per American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday. Crude stocks rose by 3.34 million barrels in the week ended February 14, gasoline inventories rose by 2.83 million barrels and distillate stocks fell by 2.69 million barrels.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

  • Alibaba (BABA) reported Q3 revenue of 280.15 billion yuan ($38.58 billion) compared with the 279.34 billion yuan expected by Wall Street; said strong year-end shopping sales and the success of its strategy to attract cost-conscious consumers helped results.
  • ACV Auctions (ACVA) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.16) vs. est. loss (-$0.01); Q4 revs $159.51M vs. est. $155.9M; sees Q1 revenue $180M-$185M, below consensus $186.75M and Q1 adjusted EBITDA $9M-$11M; sees FY25 revenue $765M-$785M, vs. consensus $784.63M.
  • Carvana (CVNA) Q4 EPS $0.56 vs est. $0.29, adj EBITDA $1.378B vs est. $1.335B on revs $13.67B vs est. $13.464B; guides FY25 significant growth in both retail units sold and adj EBITDA, including sequential increase in both retail units sold and adj EBITDA in Q1.
  • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q4 adj EPS $1.04 vs. est. $0.92; Q4 revs $921M, vs. est. $912.88M; Q4 comparable restaurant sales at The Cheesecake Factory restaurants increased 1.7% y/y vs. est. 1.61%; now expects to open as many as 25 new restaurants in fiscal 2025, after opening nine new restaurants in 2024; ees FY25 revenue about $3.8B, vs. consensus $3.77B and capex $190M-$210M.
  • Churchill Downs (CHDN) Q4 EPS $0.95 vs est. $0.95, adj EBITDA $236.6Mm vs est. $233.2Mm on revs $624.2Mm vs est. $620.2Mm; expect project capital about $350-400Mm in FY25.
  • Hasbro (HAS) Q4 adj EPS $0.46 vs. est. $0.34; Q4 revs fell -15% y/y to $1.10B vs. est. $1.02B; Q4 adj operating margin 10.2%, vs. est. 8.61%; says outlook medium-term guidance (2025-2027) revenue (constant currency) mid-single digit growth CAGR and outlook (2025-2027) adj operating margin 50bps-100bps average expansion per year
  • Host Hotels (HST) Q4 FFO/share $0.44 vs est. $0.40 on revs $1.428B vs est. $1.369B; guides FY FFO/share $1.79-1.87 vs est. $1.96.
  • Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) Q4 adj FFO/share $0.39 vs est. $0.40, adj EBITDA $147Mm vs est. $135.1Mm on revs $625Mm vs est. $606.59Mm, adj REVPAR $179.02; guides FY25 comparable REVPAR $187-192, adj EBITDA $610-670Mm vs est. $638.12Mm and adj FFO/share $1.90-2.20 vs est. $2.18.

Energy,

  • Enovix Corp. (ENVX) Q4 revs $9.7M vs. est. $6.17M; guides Q1 EPS loss (-$0.15-$0.21) vs. est. loss (-$0.18) and revs $3.5M-$5.5M vs. est. $6.2M; said are focused on launching our first smartphone battery and converting our IoT pipeline into contracted backlog.
  • SM Energy (SM) Q4 EPS $1.91, in-line with consensus $1.91 on revs $852.2M vs. est. $849.4M; Q4 production volumes were 19.1 MMBoe, or 208.0 MBoe/d, and were 51% oil. Production volumes increased 22%, sequentially and oil production volumes increased 38% sequentially.
  • Valaris (VAL) Q4 EPS $1.88 vs. est. $1.03; Q4 revs $584.4M vs. est. $577.59M; said contracting outlook for 2026 and beyond remains strong for high-specification assets.

Financials

  • Axis Capital (AXS) announces $400m share buyback.
  • Jackson Financial (JXN) Q4 EPS $4.45 vs est. $4.88; says increased Q1 common dividend by 14% to $0.80/share and established 2025 capital return to shareholders target of $700-800Mm.
  • McGrath RentCorp. (MGRC) Q4 EPS $1.58 vs est. $1.49, adj EBITDA $92M vs est. $88.6M on revs $243.7M vs est. $246.93M; sees FY25 revs $920-970M vs est. $925.68M and adj EBITDA $345-360Mm vs est. $356.86Mm.
  • Remitly Global (RELY) Q4 EPS ($0.03) vs est. ($0.09), adj EBITDA $43.7Mm vs est. $21.9Mm on revs $351.895Mm vs est. $343.4Mm; guides Q1 revs $345-348Mm vs est. $346.08Mm and adj EBITDA $36-40Mm vs est. $37.04Mm, sees FY revs $1.565-1.58B vs est. $1.558B and adj EBITDA $180-200Mm vs est. $177.41Mm.
  • Toast In. (TOST) said Q4 EPS $0.05 vs est. $0.06 on revs $1.338B vs est. $1.311B; guides Q1 adj EBITDA $100-110Mm vs est. $96.37Mm and FY adj EBITDA $510-530Mm vs est. $505.19Mm.

Healthcare

  • BioMarin (BMRN) Q4 adj EPS $0.92 vs. est. $0.73 and revs rose 16% y/y to $747M vs. est. $712.5M; Naglazyme revenue $110M, +12% y/y, and Voxzogo revenue $208M, +43% y/y; in 2025, FY total revenues guidance represents 10% y/y growth at mid-point and 2025 EPS expected to increase 22% y/y at mid-point.
  • Exact Sciences (EXAS) Q4 EPS loss (-$4.67) vs. est. loss (-$0.19); Q4 revs $713.42M vs. est. $701.45M; says plans to launch three new cancer tests in 2025; sees FY25 revenue $3.025B-$3.085B, vs. consensus $3.06B and guides FY25 adjusted EBITDA $410M-$440M.
  • Outset Medical (OM) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.37) vs. est. loss (-$0.41); Q4 revs $29.5M vs. est. $28.47; sees FY25 revenue $115M-$125M vs. consensus $121.32M; Q4 Gross margin of 36.5% (37.7% on a non-GAAP basis) increased 220 basis points sequentially from Q3 and 11 percentage points y/y.
  • Sabra Health Care (SBRA) reports Q4 AFFO $0.36, in-line with consensus and sees FY25 AFFO $1.47-$1.50 vs. consensus $1.49; Q4 Same store managed senior housing Cash NOI increased 17.9% on a year-over-year basis.

Industrials and Materials

  • Airbus (EADSY) flagged short-term production pressures and confirmed a delay to its A350 freighter as it predicted a 7% increase in deliveries to around 820 jets this year; said took a fresh charge of 300 million euros ($312.84 million) for its troubled Space business, reported adjusted operating income of 5.35 billion euros for 2024, down 8% and in line with expectations, including 2.56 billion in Q4; annual revenue rose 6% to 69.23 billion euros.
  • CF Industries (CF) Q4 EPS $1.89 vs. est. $1.523 Q4 revs $1.52B vs. est. $1.5B; Q4 adj Ebitda $562M vs. est. $582.9M; said global nitrogen pricing was supported in Q4 by positive global demand, constrained supply availability due in part to natural gas shortages in Iran and Egypt, and China’s continued restrictions on urea exports; guides FY capex $500M-$550M.
  • Coeur Mining (CDE) Q4 adj EPS $0.11 vs est. $0.14, adj EBITDA $116.4Mm vs est. $119.99Mm on revs $305.4Mm vs est. $323.21Mm; sees FY25 production 95,000-105,000 ounces gold and 5.4-6.5M ounces silver.
  • Nordson (NDSN) Q1 adj EPS $2.06 vs est. $2.09 o revs $615.42Mm vs est. $639.24Mm, gr mgn 54.6%; guides Q2 adj EPS $2.30-2.50 vs est. $2.42.
  • Reliance Inc. (RS) Q4 EPS $2.22, vs. est. $2.74; Q4 revs $3.13B vs. est. $3.06B; raises qtr dividend to $1.20; estimates tons sold will be up 6% to 8% sequentially in Q1 and expects avg selling price per ton sold down 1% to up 1% sequentially; guides Q1 adj EPS $3.30-$3.50, vs. est. $3.76.

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • ANSYS Inc. (ANSS) Q4 adj EPS $4.44 vs est. $3.93, adj op mgn 53.3% on revs $882.2Mm vs est. $863.5Mm; suspends long-term outlook given agreement to be acquired by Synopsys.
  • Clearwater Analytics (CWAN) Q4 adj EBITDA $41.7Mm vs est. $38.6Mm on revs $126.5Mm vs est. $120.4Mm; guides Q1 revs $125Mm vs est. $122.97Mm and adj EBITDA $41.5Mm vs est. $40.18Mm; sees FY revs $535.5-542Mm vs est. $533.35Mm and adj EBITDA $182-185Mm vs est. $180.16Mm.
  • Klaviyo (KVYO) Q4 adj EPS $0.07 vs. est. $0.06; Q4 revs $270.2M vs. est. $257.29M; sees FY25 revenue $1.156B-$1.164B above consensus $1.15B and sees FY25 adjusted operating margin 11%-12%; said over 167K customers are using Klaviyo to drive their own revenue growth at the end of fiscal year 2024, compared to over 143K y/y.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.