Early Look

Thursday, February 22, 2024

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	160.00	0.41%	38,837
S&P 500	67.25	1.35%	5,063
Nasdaq	374.50	2.13%	17,911

 

 

Another day, another record as S&P Futures (Spuz) rise +1.35% at 5,063, trading as high as 5,067.75 and taking out the Feb 12th all-time best 5,066.50 and the Nasdaq 100 is up over 2% as the tech space rallies behind NVDA earnings and guidance, giving a boost across the technology, Artificial intelligence, and semiconductor chip stock sectors. Nvidia (NVDA) topped Wall Street’s expectations for fourth-quarter earnings and revenue and projected “continued growth” in 2025 and beyond, giving the stock market the boost it needed after slipping the last few days. There are lots of other earnings report, a busy day of Fed speakers and economic data, better Eurozone data overnight, a decline in the dollar – but none of that matters as NVDA earnings, which were hyped as the most important earnings results of the quarter, lived up to the hype with technology stocks surging and stock markets at highs in a big rebound. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 836 points to 39,098, the Shanghai Index gained 37 points to 2,988, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 239 points to 16,742. In Europe, the German DAX surges 248 points to 17,366, while the FTSE 100 is up 22 points to 7,684.

 

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 48.44 points, or 0.13%, to 38,612.24.
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -49.91 points, or 0.32%, to 15,580.87.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -9.40 points, or 0.47% to 1,994.75.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est.1.885M
• 9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Feb-Flash…est. 50.5
• 9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Services PMI…est. 52.0
• 10:00 AM ET                Existing Home Sales M/M for February…est. 3.97M
• 10:00 AM ET                Fed’s Jefferson to Give Speech, Q&A
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM ET                   Fed’s Harker Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 5:00 PM ET                   Fed’s Cook Speaks at Macro Finance Conference
• 5:00 PM ET                   Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Panel Discussion on Outlook

• Earnings After the Close: AAOI ACA AEE AIV ALRM ALTR AMH APLE AXTI BCOV BKNG BMRN BOOM CABO CHUY COLD CPRT CTRA CVNA DRH DVAX EIX ENV EOG EVH EXFY FND FOXF GH HCAT HOV INTU IRTC LASR LYV LZ MAIN MP MRVI NE NOG NVEE OII OLED PEN PLYA PODD RHP RKT RMAX SEM SFM SNBR SQ SPXC TPIC UPLD VCYT VICI VIR WTRG ZEUS ZIP

• Goldman Sachs 3rd European Technology Conference, 2/21-2/22 in London
• China House Prices Y/Y

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.03	77.94
Brent	0.10	83.13
Gold	4.10	2,038.40
EUR/USD	0.0032	1.0849
JPY/USD	-0.07	150.21
10-Year Note	-0.018	4.305%

 

• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 18.1 vs 15.4 last week. Bulls rose to 44.3% from 42.2%, Neutrals fall to 29.5% from 31.1%, Bears fall to 26.2% from 26.8%.
• Turkey holds interest rate at 45% for first time after 8 months of hikes.

• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q4 adj EPS $0.80 vs est. $0.73 on revs $877.009Mm vs est. $878.43Mm, comps +2.5%.
• Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) Q4 EPS $0.04 vs. est. $0.02; Q4 revs $254.1M vs. est. $252.8M; Q4 system same shop sales increased 5.0%, and company-operated same shop sales increased 4.6%, as compared to the same period of 2022; sees FY24 revenue $1.19B-$1.205B vs. est. $1.22B.
• Jack in the Boc (JACK) Q1 EPS $1.95 vs. est. $1.96; Q1 revs $487.5M vs. est. $481.6M; Q1 Jack in the Box same-store sales of up 0.8% and Del Taco same-store sales of up 2.2%; affirms FY24 guidance.
• Lucid Group (LCID) Q4 EPS ($0.29) vs est. ($0.30) on revs $157.2Mm vs es t$179.88Mm, delivered 1,734 vehicles; guides 2024 production about 9,000 vehicles.
• Marriot Vacations (VAC) Q4 adj EPS $1.88 vs est. $1.75, adj EBITDA $186Mm vs est. $179.66Mm on revs $1.194B vs est. $1.143B; guides FY24 contract sales $1.88-1.93B, adj EBITDA $760-800Mm vs est. $799.67Mm and adj EPS $7.65-8.35 vs est. $7.89.
• Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Q4 adj EPS ($1.36) vs est. ($1.32), production 17,541 units, revs $1.32B vs est. $1.262B; sees 2024 production 57,000 units and adj EBITDA ($2.7)B vs est. ($2.63)B.

• Marathon Oil (MRO) Q4 adj EPS $0.69 vs. est. $0.65; Q4 revs fell -2.4% y/y to $1.69B vs. est. 41.65B; Q4 net sales volume 400 mboe/d, +20% y/y; has $1.9B-$2.1B capex budget for 2024; expects to deliver total Company oil production of 190,000 net boepd at the midpoint of its 2024 guidance range.
• Range Resources (RRC) Q4 adj EPS $0.63 vs. est. $0.48; Q4 adj revs $715.31M vs. est. $669.6M; Net production averaged 2,139 Mmcfe per day, approximately 69% natural gas; 2024 all-in capital budget is expected to be $620 to $670 million; development plan for 2024 will target holding production flat for the year at approximately 2.12 — 2.16 Bcfe per day.
• Sunnova Energy (NOVA) Q4 EPS reported ($1.53) vs est. ($0.18), adj EBITDA $191.5Mm vs est. $143.37Mm on revs $194.182Mm vs est. $223.4Mm; guides FY adj EBITDA $350-450Mm vs est. $352.67Mm.
• Sunrun (RUN) Q4 revs $516.6M vs. est. $523.7M; Q4 adj EPS loss (-$1.33) vs. est. loss (-$0.28); reiterates cash generation outlook for 2024; to offer $475M of conv senior notes.

• Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Q4 adj EPS $0.28 vs est. $0.33, adj EBITDA $14.1Mm vs est. $18Mm on revs $63Mm vs est. $68.27Mm; sees FY revs $310-320Mm vs est. $336.85Mm; announces CEO transition Mark Jones to executive Chairman and Mark Miller to CEO effectively July 1.

• ICON PLC (ICLR) Q4 adj EPS $3.46 vs. est. $3.45; Q4 revs $2.07B vs. est. $2.09B; Q4 closing backlog of $22.8B, an increase of 2.4% on Q3; announces $500M share repurchase program; affirms both 2024 adjusted EPS outlook $14.50-$15.30 (est. $14.91) and 2024 revenue outlook $8.4B-$8.8B.
• Moderna (MRNA) Q4 adj EPS $0.55 on revs $2.8B vs. est. $2.5B as total operating expenses fell -20% y/y to $2.81B; reaffirms 2024 product sales outlook.
• Novavax (NVAX) said it has agreed to pay back international vaccine group Gavi at least $475M in cash or vaccines by the end of 2028, settling a dispute that had created financial uncertainty. Gavi had paid NVAX $700 million over 2021 and 2022 for up to 350 million doses of its COVID vaccine.
• Symbotic (SYM) 10M share Spot Secondary priced at $40.50.
• Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.46) vs. est. loss (-$0.25); Q4 revs $209.4M vs. est. $202.76M; sees Q1 revenue $175M vs. consensus $186.09M while sees FY24 revenue roughly $850M vs. est. $842.49M.

• Ingevity Corp. (NGVT) Q4 adj EPS ($0.21) vs est. ($0.19), adj EBITDA $61.8Mm vs est. $45.64Mm on revs $371.7Mm vs est. $332.3Mm; guides FY revs $1.4-1.55B vs est. $1.466B and adj EBITDA $365-390Mm vs est. $371.23Mm.
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.17) vs. est. loss (-$0.18); Q4 revs $1.03M vs. est. $1.05M; Q4 adj. EBITDA loss $96.2M, vs. est. loss $101.9M; Q4 operating expense $129.3M, vs. est. $138.2M.
• Mosaic (MOS) Q4 adj EPS $0.71 vs est. $0.86, adj EBITDA $646Mm vs es.t $620.6Mm; sees Q1 potash sales volumes 2.0-2.2Mm tons and phosphate sales volumes 1.6-1.8Mm tons; says potash demand in North America is expected to remain robust in 2024 and demand in southeast Asia and Brazil expected to improve.
• Nordson Corp. (NDSN) Q1 adj EPS $2.21 vs. est. $2.04; Q1 revs $633M vs. est. $630.42M; sees Q2 adjusted EPS $2.20-$2.35 vs. est. $2.45 and Q2 revenue $645M-$670M vs. est. $681.17M.
• Nutrien Ltd. (NTR)
• Union Pacific (UNP) said it plans to invest $3.4B in 2024 to support safe operations, renew assets and grow with customers. An estimated 56% of the capital plan, or $1.9B, will go toward upgrading and replacing infrastructure.

• ANSYS Inc (ANSS) Q4 adj EPS $3.94 vs est. $3.71 on revs $805.1Mm vs est. $797.38Mm, adj op mgn 53%.
• Consensus Cloud Solutions (CCSI) Q4 adj EBITDA $47.189Mm vs est. $46.85Mm, adj EBITDA mgn 53.8% on revs $87.754Mm vs est. $88.9Mm; guides Q1 revs $85-89Mm vs est. $91.36Mm, adj EBITDA $45-48Mm vs est. $47.66Mm and adj EPS $1.27-1.33 vs est. $1.29; sees FY revs $338-353Mm vs est. $369.05Mm, adj EBITDA $182-194Mm vs est. $192.74Mm.
• DigitalOcean Holdings (DOCN) Q4 adj EBITDA $73Mm vs est. $66.34Mm on revs $181Mm vs est. $177.71Mm; sees Q1 revs $182-183Mm vs est. $181.12Mm, adj EBITDA mgn 37-38% and adj EPS $0.37-0.39 vs est. $0.37; sees FY revs $755-775Mm vs est. $767.15Mm, adj EBITDA mgn 36-38% and adj EPS $1.60-1.67 vs est. $1.62.
• Etsy Inc. (ETSY) Q4 EPS $0.62 vs. est. $0.77; Q4 revs $842.3M vs. est. $827.81M; Q4 Consolidated GMS was $4.0 billion, down 0.7%y/y and down 1.6% on a currency neutral basis; Etsy marketplace GMS was $3.6 billion, down 1.4% y/y and up 142% on a four-year basis; Active buyers reached a new all-time high of 92M.
• Five9 Inc. (FIVN) Q4 adj EPS $0.61 vs es t$0.49, adj EBITDA $48.3Mm vs est. $40.56Mm on revs $239.062Mm vs est. $238.01Mm; guides Q1 revs $239-240Mm vs est. $245.91Mm and adj EPS $0.37-0.39 vs est. $0.32; sees FY revs $1.053-1.057B vs est. $1.055B and adj EPS $2.14-2.18 vs est. $2.14.
• Synopsys (SNPS) Q1 adj EPS $3.56 vs est. $3.43 on revs $1.649B vs est. $1.646B; guides Q2 revs $1.56-1.59B vs est. $1.552B and adj EPS $3.09-3.14 vs est. $3.02; sees FY revs $6.57-6.63B vs est. $6.585B and adj EPS $13.47-13.55.
• Verizon (VZ), AT&T (T), T-Mobile (TMUS): The website Downdetector has detected a surge in outage reports from users of AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Consumer Cellular, Boost Mobile, US Cellular, and Straight Talk. Outage reports for the carriers began around 0345 ET. Geographically, the outages have been reported across some major US cities.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.