Morning Preview: February 24, 2023

Early Look
Friday, February 24, 2023
Futures |
Up/Down |
% |
Last |
Dow |
-168.00 |
0.51% |
33,014 |
S&P 500 |
-24.25 |
0.60% |
3,994 |
Nasdaq |
-111.50 |
0.91% |
12,096 |
After rebounding off its 50-day MA support of 3,996 yesterday for a second day, S&P futures are sliding -0.6% back to that same level and near its overnight lows ahead of important inflation data later at 8:30 AM, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge with core PCE for January. Stocks swung more than 1.5% of morning lows on Thursday despite another day of cautionary economic data as GDP data weakened, jobless claims improved, and inflation data came in higher than estimates. The headline PCE is expected to stay flat at 5.0% YoY in Jan with the MoM rate rising 0.5% up from 0.1%. Core PCE is seen edging lower to 4.3% YoY from 4.4% on the back of a 0.4% MoM rise. An upside surprise would support the notion that the terminal rate could be closer to 6.00% rather than just above 5.25%. Also, a market factor, tensions between the U.S. and Beijing intensify after two US officials said Thursday the country is set to expand the number of troops helping train Taiwanese forces. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 349 points to 27,453, the Shanghai Index fell -20 points to 3,267, and the Hang Seng Index declined -341 points to 20,010. In Europe, the German DAX is down about -60 points to 15,415, while the FTSE 100 rises 20 points to 7,930. The US has announced new Russian sanctions, affecting metals, minerals, and chemicals alongside measures on Cos supporting their defense sector.
Market Closing Prices Yesterday
· The S&P 500 Index gained 21.34 points, or 0.53%, to 4,012
· The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 111.32 points, or 0.34%, to 33,156
· The Nasdaq Composite climbed 83.33 points, or 0.72%, to 11,590
· The Russell 2000 Index advanced 14.88 points, or 0.79% to 1,909
Economic Calendar for Today
· 8:30 AM ET Personal Income M/M for Jan…est. 1.0%
· 8:30 AM ET Personal Spending M/M for Jan…prior (-0.3%)
· 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for Jan…prior +0.1%
· 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for Jan…est. prior +5.0%
· 8:30 AM ET Core PCE Price Index M/M for Jan…est. +0.4%
· 8:30 AM ET Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for Jan…est. +4.3%
· 10:00 AM ET University of Michigan Confidence, Feb-F…est. 66.4
· 10:00 AM ET New Home Sales M/M for Jan…est. 620K
· 1:00 PM ET Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
Earnings Calendar:
· Earnings Before the Open: ACMR BCPC BRC CNK DBRG DINO EVRG GTLS GTN HEP LAMR PNM SLCA SMLP SSP UNIT
Macro |
Up/Down |
Last |
Nymex |
0.28 |
75.67 |
Brent |
0.47 |
82.68 |
Gold |
-0.40 |
1,826.40 |
EUR/USD |
-0.0017 |
1.0578 |
JPY/USD |
0.61 |
135.32 |
10-Year Note |
+0.021 |
3.902% |
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
· Booking Holdings (BKNG) 4Q adj EPS $24.74 vs est. $22.24 on revs $4.0B vs est. $3.9B, room nights booked +39% y/y.
· Carvana (CVNA) 4Q EPS ($7.61) vs est. ($2.28) on revs $2.837B vs est. $3.095B, retail units sold -23% to 86,977; guides to sequential reduction in retail units sold in 1Q23, expects sequential increase in total GPU in 1Q23.
· Flood & Décor (FND) 4Q EPS $0.64 vs est. $0.57 on sales $1.05B vs est. $1.06B, comps +2.5%, adj EBITDA $143.1Mm vs est. $131.1Mm; guides FY23 net sales $4.61-4.75B vs est. $4.83B, comps -3.0% – flat, EPS $2.55-2.85 vs est. $2.86, adj EBITDA $605-650Mm vs est. $618.7Mm.
· Mister Car Wash (MCW) 4Q adj EBITDA $66.2Mm vs est. $60.4Mm on revs $214.3Mm, comps +4%; guides FY revs $925-960Mm vs est. $956.5Mm, comps +0-3% and adj EBITDA $277-297Mm vs est. $301Mm.
· Revolve Group (RVLV) 4Q adj EPS $0.10 vs est. $0.10 on sales $259.15Mm vs est. $240.3Mm, gr mgn 51.4%, adj EBITDA $14.137Mm vs est. $11.96Mm, says net sales +mid-single-digit % first seven weeks of 1Q.
· Volkswagen-owned Audi may build a factory in the United States, alone or with the Volkswagen Group, to take advantage of subsidies offered by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the premium carmaker said on Friday. – Reuters
Energy, Industrials and Materials
· Boeing Co (BA) shares fall after saying it has temporarily halted deliveries of its 787 Dreamliner jets as the U.S. plane maker conducts additional analysis on a fuselage component, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said on Thursday. Deliveries will not resume until the FAA is satisfied that the issue has been addressed, the agency said.
· Celanese (CE) 4Q adj EPS $1.44 vs est. $1.66 on revs $2.35B vs est. $2.4B; guides 1Q adj EPS $1.50-1.75 vs est. $2.44, see upward trajectory in quarterly earnings thru 2023.
· MasTec (MTZ) Q4 EPS $1.03 vs. est. $0.98; Q4 revs $3.01B vs. est. $2.91B; guides Q1 EPS loss and revs below consensus; sees FY23 EPS $4.64-$4.91 vs. est. $4.74; sees FY23 revenue $13.0B vs. est. $12.94B and sees FY23 adjusted EBITDA of $1.10B-$1.15B vs. $780.6M in FY22.
· Southwestern Energy (SWN) 4Q adj EPS $0.26 vs est. $0.27, adj EBITDA $732Mm vs est. $729.9Mm, adj FCF $140Mm; guides FY23 production approx 4.6 BCFE/day and capital investment $2.2-2.5B.
Financials
· Block Inc. (SQ) 4Q adj EPS $0.22 vs est. $0.30 on revs $ 4.65B vs est. $4.61B, adj EBITDA $281Mm vs est. $220Mm; guides FY adj EBITDA $1.3B vs est. $1.3B.
· Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) 4Q adj EPS ($0.63) vs est. ($0.73) on revs $2.86B vs est. $2.47B, adj EBITDA ($351)Mm vs est. ($355.7)Mm; guides 1Q revs $2.45-2.65B vs est. $2.56B and adj EBITDA ($370)Mm – ($350)Mm vs est. ($271.8)Mm.
· Life Storage (LSI) 4Q EPS $1.10 vs est. $1.07, FFO/shr $1.69 vs est. $1.64; same-store revs +11.8%, same-store NOI +13.3%; guides FY same-store revs +4.0-5.5%, same-store NOI +3.75-5.25%, AFFO/shr $6.75-6.95 vs est. $6.90.
· Columbia Banking System (COLB) will replace Umpqua Holdings Corp. (UMPQ) in the S&P MidCap 400, and Verra Mobility Corp. (VRRM) will replace Columbia Banking System in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Wednesday, March 1.
Healthcare
· Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) shares rise after the European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) recommended that the EC approve Vafseo.
· Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) shares fell -30%; after reporting that a phase 2 trial for a lupus candidate failed to meet its primary endpoint; said rezpegaldesleukin (REZPEG), is a potential first-in-class selective regulatory T-cell inducing IL-2 conjugate.
· Insulet Corp. (PODD) 4Q adj EPS $0.55 vs est. $0.21 on revs $369.7Mm vs est. $330.4Mm; guides 1Q revs +11-14% vs est. +13%; sees FY revs +14-19% vs est. +15.8%, gr mgn 65-66%, op mgn high-single-digit.
· Penumbra (PEN) 4Q GAAP EPS $0.10 on revs $221.2Mm vs est. $217.3Mm; guides FY revs $1.0B or more vs est. $1.0B.
· Tactile Systems (TCMD) 2.5M share Spot Secondary priced at $13.00.
Technology, Media & Telecom
· Autodesk (ADSK) 4Q adj EPS $1.86 vs est. $1.81 on revs $1.318B vs est. $1.312B; guides 1Q revs $1.26-1.275B vs est. $1.267B and adj EPS $1.50-1.56 vs est. $1.64, sees FY revs $+7-9% vs est. +9.2% and adj EPS $6.98-7.32 vs est. $7.31.
· BigCommerce (BIGC) 4Q adj EPS ($0.10) vs est. ($0.19) on revs $72.4Mm vs est. $73.3Mm, ARR $311.7Mm; sees 1Q revs $69.7-72.7Mm vs est.$74.45Mm, adj op income ($12.2)Mm-($8.2)Mm; sees FY revs $301-313Mm vs est. $318.6Mm and adj op loss ($22.7)Mm – ($15.7)Mm.
· Universal Display (OLED) 4Q EPS $1.36 vs est. $0.94 on revs $169Mm vs est. $149Mm; guides FY revs $550-600Mm vs est. $628.7Mm.
· Warner Brothers (WBD) 4Q adj EPS ($0.83) vs est. ($0.21) on revs $11.0B vs est. $11.36B, total subs 96.1mm vs est. 96.3Mm.
Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.