Morning Preview: February 25, 2025

Early Look

Tuesday, February 25, 2025

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

-55.00

0.13%

43,480

S&P 500

-11.25

0.19%

5,989

Nasdaq

-79.50

0.37%

21,341

 

 

After closing at the lows in a sharp sell-off the final 30 minutes of trading on Monday, S&P futures are looking at more weakness early as investors brace for several potential catalysts this week. It was a rough finish for Wall Street on Monday, dragged down by the Nasdaq and S&P 500 ahead of NVDA earnings tomorrow night and PCE inflation data on Friday. Together with worries about tariffs and inflation, investors are getting more concerned about U.S. growth prospects after last week’s batch of weak economic data and a disappointing forecast from Walmart (WMT) raised concerns for the consumer. President Trump has once again threatened to impose 25% across-the-board tariffs on US neighbors Canada and Mexico, while duties on China went into effect in early February, and China retaliated. AI related spending fears weighed on chips, data centers and power/nuclear companies in the last few weeks, while MSFT reiterated plans to invest $80B in AI data centers in response to reports the company was cutting back on AI CAPEX. Also in the AI space, Reuters reported DeepSeek is accelerating the launch of the successor to January’s R1 model. Dow component Home Depot (HD) reported better quarterly results this morning, but shares are edging lower initially.

 

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -539 points to 38,237, the Shanghai Index fell -26 points to 3,346, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -307 points to 23,034. In Europe, the German DAX is up 33 points to 22,459, while the FTSE 100 rises 32 points to 8,691. Bitcoin prices are tumbling, falling over -6.3% to below $88,000 (first time below $90K in about 5-weeks), while Ethereum declines -9.85% to $2,375 and XRP falls -12% to around $2.08 in a broad crypto sell off. Some concerns remain in crypto after last week’s hack of $1.5 billion worth of Ether from crypto exchange Bybit. Bond prices extend gains as the 10-year yield falls over 5bps to 4.34%, on track for its 6th straight week of declining Treasury yields, while the dollar remains weaker and gold, while slipping overnight, remains near all-time highs.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index slipped -29.88 points, or 0.50%, to 5,983.25.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 33.19 points, or 0.08%, to 43,461.21.
  • The Nasdaq Composite dropped -237.08 points, or 1.21%, to 19,286.93.
  • The Russell 2000 Index declined -17.08 points, or 0.78% to 2,178.27.

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 4:20 AM ET                  Fed’s Logan Speaks at Balance Sheet Conference
  • 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
  • 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
  • 9:00 AM ET                  Monthly Home Price M/M for December
  • 9:00 AM ET                  CaseShiller 20 City Index for December…est. +0.3%
  • 10:00 AM ET                Consumer Confidence for February…est. 102.5
  • 10:00 AM ET                Richmond Fed Index for February…prior (-4)
  • 11:45 PM ET                Fed’s Barr Gives Remarks With Q&A
  • 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes
  • 1:00 PM ET                   Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Inflation
  • 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: AHCO AMT AWI AXGN BLD CECO CIFR CRI DEA DK DKL DNUT DOCN DRVN ELAN HD HRMY HSIC IART IGT ITRI KDP KTB LGIH MIDD MPLN NOVT NXRT OFIX PEG PLNT PNW PTLO SEE SHLS SRE SSTK TILE TZOO XHR XMTR XPRO
  • Earnings After the Close: AGL AHT AMC ARQT AXON BASE BGFV BGS BLZE CART CAVA CCCS CHRD CPNG CWH CZR DAWN DNA EXLS EXR FLYW FSLR GO GPOR HURN HYLN INGN INTU IPAR JACK KEYS LCID LMND LNW MASI MATX MMSI MRVI OLO OSUR OUT PARR PCVX PLYA PR PRCH RCKY RCUS RLJ RRC RVLV RXST SAM SKWD SLNG SLRC SPT SPXC SSTI SUPN TTI USNA UVE WDAY WK ZETA ZI ZIP

Other Key Events:

  • Cantor Healthcare San Diego Bus Tour 2/25-2/27, in San Diego, CA
  • Goldman Sachs European Technology Conference, 2/25-2/26, in London
  • JP Morgan 2025 Global High Yields and Leveraged Finance Conference, 2/24-2/26 (2025), in Miami, FL
  • Las Vegas Builder’s Show Field Trip, 2/25-2/26, in Las Vegas, NV
  • Oppenheimer 10th Annual Emerging Growth Conference, 2/25-2/26

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

-0.04

70.66

Brent

-0.04

74.74

Gold

-9.80

2,053.40

EUR/USD

0.0012

1.0478

JPY/USD

0.00

149.71

10-Year Note

-0.053

4.341%

 

World News

  • EU car registrations declined by 2.6% in January, according to the ACEA. The bloc’s major markets saw declines, with France down 6.2%, Italy down 5.8%, and Germany down 2.8%, while Spain conversely recorded a 5.3% increase, the group reported

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

  • Home Depot (HD) Q4 adj EPS $3.13 vs. est. $3.04; Q4 revs $39.7B vs. est. $39.07B; comparable sales for Q4 increased 0.8% vs. est. loss of (-1.5%), and comparable sales in the U.S. increased 1.3%; announced its board approved increasing its quarterly dividend to $2.30 a share from $2.25; guided for sales growth of about 2.8%, comparable sales growth of about 1%, and adj EPS to decline about 2% from $15.24 in fiscal 2024.
  • Beyond Inc. (BYON) Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.91) vs. est. loss (-$0.74); Q4 revs fell -21.1% y/y to $303M vs. est. $325.2M; said reported 50% improvement in Net Loss and 43% improvement in Adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, driven by exceeding our gross margin expansion and fixed cost reduction goals in our core business; reported Q4 Orders delivered of 1.7 million, a decrease of 34% y/y and active customers of 5.4 million, a decrease of 4% y/y.
  • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) announces $450M convertible senior notes offering.
  • Chegg Inc. (CHGG) Q4 adj EPS $0.17, in-line with ests and revs $143.5M vs. est. $142.05M; but shares tumble as guides Q1 revenue $114M-$116M, below est. $138.63M and sees Q1 adjusted EBITDA $13M-$14M; said Initiates strategic review process to explore alternatives and files a complaint against Google LLC and Alphabet Inc.
  • Planet Fitness (PLNT) Q4 adj EPS $0.70, vs. est. $0.62; Q4 revs $340.5M, vs. est. $324.57M; Q4 System-wide same club sales increased 5.5%; noted they closed out the year with 19.7 million members, posting revenue growth of more than 10% and growing Adjusted EBITDA by approximately 12%.
  • TopGolf Callaway (MODG) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.33) vs. est. loss (-$0.42); Q4 revs $924.4M vs. est. $884.76M; sees Q1 revenue $1.05B-$1.09B vs. est. $1.17B and Q1 consolidated adj EBITDA $125M-$145M from $161M last year; sees 2025 revs $4.0B-$4.19B vs. est. $4.34B and 2025 consolidated adj EBITDA $415M-$505M from $588M last year.

Energy,

  • Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) Q4 revs fell -10.9% sequentially to $271.3M vs. est. $272.94M; Q4 Product sales decreased $16.9M, or 11.6%, sequentially, to $128.4M; Q4 sales volumes decreased to 5.1 million tons or by 15%, coupled with lower average pricing recognized during the period; Q4 service sales decreased by $16.2M, or 10.2%, sequentially, to $142.9M.
  • Civitas Resources (CIVI) Q4 adj EPS $1.57 vs. est. $1.99; Q4 revs $1.29B, vs. est. 1.3B; announces 10% workforce reduction; Q4 total sales and oil volumes increased 1% and 3% sequentially to 352 MBoe/d and 164 MBbl/d, respectively; Q4 sales volumes were split 50% Permian Basin and 50% DJ Basin, as the DJ Basin grew significantly following a high number of third quarter turn-in-lines; aims to cut capital investments nearly 5% in 2025.
  • Clearway Energy (CWEN) Q4 EPS $0.03 vs est. $0.09, adj EBITDA $228Mm vs est. $249.84Mm on sales $256Mm vs est. $294.08Mm; guides FY adj EBITDA $1.146B vs est. $1.221B.
  • Diamondback Energy (FANG) Q4 adj EPS $3.64 vs est. $3.35 on revs $3.71B vs est. $3.528B, adj FCF $2.3B; sees FY25 oil production 485-498 MBO/D, Q1 oil production 470-475 MBO/D.
  • DMC Global (BOOM) Q4 EPS $0.09 vs. est. loss (-$0.29); Q4 revs $152.4M vs. est. $140.4M; sees Q1 revenue $146M-$154M above consensus $145.55M and sees adjusted EBITDA is expected in a range of $8M-$11M.
  • ONEOK (OKE) Q4 EPS $1.57 above consensus $1.54; posted Q4 adj EBITDA of $2.17B, with 3% increase in Rocky Mountain region NGL raw feed throughput volumes, 4% increase in crude oil volume shipped and 11% increase in total wells connected.

Financials

  • Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Q4 adj EPS $0.79 vs est. $0.40, adj EBITDA $37.4Mm vs est. $21.7Mm on revs $93.9Mm vs est. $78.57Mm; guides FY revs $350-385Mm vs est. $373.79Mm.
  • Realty income (O) Q4 adj FFO/share $1.05 vs est. $1.07 on revs $1.34B vs est. $1.295B; guides FY25 adj FFO/share $4.22-4.28 vs est. $4.38.
  • Zions Bancorporation (ZION) board authorizes $40M share repurchase for FY 2025.

Healthcare

  • Addus Homecare (ADUS) Q4 adj EPS $1.07 vs est. $1.35, adj EBITDA $37.8Mm vs est. $37.5Mm on revs $297.1Mm vs est. $291.53Mm.
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) said it has begun selling higher doses of its popular weight-loss drug Zepbound in vials in the U.S. at a $150 discount to the cost of the injector pen versions. LLY said patients could purchase 7.5 milligram and 10mg vials of Zepbound for $499 a month on the LillyDirect website. That is nearly 23% less than the $650 Lilly charges for auto-injectors of the drug to patients who are insured but not covered for the medicine.
  • Hims & Hers (HIMS) Q4 EPS $0.11 vs est. $0.10, adj EBITDA $54.1Mm vs est. $54.3Mm on revs $481.1Mm vs est. $470.3Mm, gr mgn 77%; guides Q1 revs $520-540Mm vs est. $497.05Mm and adj EBITDA $55-65Mm vs est. $58.97Mm; guides FY revs $2.3-2.4B vs est. $2.087B and adj EBITDA $270-320Mm vs est. $258.89Mm.
  • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) Q4 adj EPS ($0.04) vs est. $0.03, adj op Inc $5.6Mm vs est. $5.945Mm on revs $210.6Mm vs est. $211.62Mm; guides FY25 revs $840-860Mm vs est. $866.15Mm, gr mgn 69.5-70.5%, adj EBITDA $25-35Mm vs est. $34.39Mm and adj EPS $0.07-0.11 vs est. $0.06.
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) is nearing a deal for Solventum’s (SOLV) purification and filtration business, according to people familiar with the matter – WSJ https://tinyurl.com/5n7xzd2c
  • Veracyte Inc. (VCYT) adj EPS $0.36 vs est. $0.11, adj EBITDA $26.1Mm vs est. $19.4Mm on revs $118.6Mm vs est. $116.8Mm, adj gr mgn 69.3%; guides FY testing revs $470-480Mm vs est. $487.65Mm and adj EBITDA mgn 21.6%.

Industrials and Materials

  • BWX Technologies (BWXT) Q4 adj EPS $0.92 vs est. $0.81, adj EBITDA $130.3Mm vs est. $132.6Mm on revs $746.3Mm vs est. $719.98Mm; guides FY revs $3.0B vs est. $2.898B, adj EBITDA $550-570Mm vs est. $549.88Mm and adj EPS $3.40-3.55 vs est. $3.43.
  • Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.92) vs. est. loss (-$0.68); Q4 revs fell -15% y/y to $4.33B vs. est. $4.33B; Q4 adj Ebitda loss $81M vs. profit $279M y/y; sees 2025 capex about $700M; said results in 2024 were a consequence of the worst steel demand environment since 2010; said impacted by domestic auto production decline.
  • JBT Marel (JBTM) Q4 adj EBITDA $92Mm vs est. $95.39Mm; guides FY revs $3.575-3.65B, adj EBITDA mgn 15.75-16.5% and adj EPS $5.50-6.10.
  • KBR Inc. (KBR) Q4 adj EPS $0.91 vs est. $0.82, adj EBITDA $228Mm vs est. $218.6Mm on revs $2.12B vs. est. $1.999B; guides FY revs $8.7-9.1B vs est. $8.913B.
  • Primoris Services (PRIM) Q4 adj EPS $1.13 vs est. $0.75, adj EBITDA $116.6Mm vs est. $93.22Mm on revs $1.74B vs est. $1.594B; guides FY25 adj EPS $4.20-4.40 vs est. $4.00, adj EBITDA $440-460Mm vs est. $447.75Mm.
  • Trex Company (TREX) Q4 EPS $0.09 vs. est. $0.04; Q4 revs $168M vs. est. $160.5M; sees Q1 revenue $325M-$330M, vs. consensus $325M and guides FY25 revenue $1.21B-$1.23B vs. est. $1.21B; sees FY Adjusted EBITDA in the $378 million to $385 million range.
  • Triumph Group (TGI) announced it has extended its agreement as a strategic supplier to BAE Systems (BAESY) and the U.S. Army in support of the M777 Lightweight Howitzer platform supplying critical spare Primer Feed Mechanism components

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • DeepSeek is accelerating the launch of the successor to January’s R1 model, according to three people familiar with the company, reported Reuters. DeepSeek had planned to release R2 in early May but now wants it out as early as possible, two of them said, without providing specifics. The company says it hopes the new model will produce better coding and be able to reason in languages beyond English. Details of the accelerated timeline for R2’s release have not been previously reported. https://tinyurl.com/jhyk2z6a
  • Chinese companies are ramping up orders for Nvidia’s (NVDA) H20 artificial intelligence chip due to booming demand for DeepSeek’s low-cost AI models, six people familiar with the matter said. The surge in orders, which is being reported for the first time by Reuters, underlines Nvidia’s dominance of the market and could help alleviate concerns that DeepSeek might cause a slide in AI chip demand https://tinyurl.com/2v436whv
  • Baidu (BIDU) said it has acquired social media firm JOYY’s (YY) live-streaming business in mainland China for about $2.1 billion, as the search engine giant looks to diversify its revenue stream.
  • MediaAlpha (MAX) reports FY revs $864.7M vs. est. $855M; and FY adj Ebitda $96.1M vs. est. $90.9M; guides Q1 revenue $225M-$245M vs. est. $268.5M.
  • Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) sees Q1 revenue $13M-$15M below consensus est. $15.8M.
  • SBA Communications (SBAC) Q4 FFO $3.47 vs. est. $3.36 and revs $693.7M vs. est. $681.7M; sees FY25 FFO $12.40-$12.76 vs. est. $12.91 and sees FY25 revenue $2.69B-$2.74B, vs. est. $2.72B.
  • Tempus AI (TEM) Q4 adjusted EPS loss (-$0.18) vs. est. loss (-$0.15); Q4 revs $200.7M vs. est. $202.8M; generated $120.4M revs in Q4, 30.6% y/y growth, unit growth of 22.5% y/y, and Data and Services Generated $80.2M revs in 4Q, 44.6% y/y growth; sees FY25 revenue roughly $1.24B, vs. consensus $1.23B.
  • Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT) Q4 adj EPS $0.51 vs est. $0.44 on revs $503.5Mm vs est. $559.19Mm, adj gr mgn 16.8%; guides Q1 revs $505-555Mm vs est. $561.39Mm and adj EPS $0.22-0.42 vs est. $0.54.
  • Zoom Communications (ZM) Q4 adj EPS $1.41 vs est. $1.30 on revs $1.18B vs est. $1.18B, adj op mgn 19%; guides Q1 revs $1.162-1.167B vs est. $1.175B and adj EPS $1.29-1.31 vs est. $1.30; sees FY revs $4.785-4.795B vs est. $4.809B and adj EPS $5.34-5.37 vs est. $5.36.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.