Early Look

Thursday, February 29, 2024

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-125.00	0.33%	38,866
S&P 500	-13.25	0.26%	5,068
Nasdaq	-36.50	0.20%	17,878

 

 

U.S. futures are edging lower ahead of the main economic data point of the week, the January PCE inflation index at 8:30 AM ET, as markets have traded sideways all week awaiting this number. A “hotter” reading like the one we saw in the GDP report yesterday or CPI/PPI report two weeks ago could spell a short-term pullback in U.S. stocks while a “cooler” reading could push markets to new highs on expectations the Fed rate cut cycle could begin sooner than markets are forecasting. Stocks fell on Thursday after the inflation metrics for Q4 increased. The quarterly based PCE excluding food and energy, a supplemental measure based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures, climbed 2.3%, compared to 1.9% in the previous three months and above expectations. Along with inflation, the data showed the US economy expanded at a slightly slower rate at the end of last year. In earnings news overnight, shares of cloud software stocks weakened after CRM and SNOW each issued lower revenue forecasts, while shares cyber security co OKTA jumped following its results/guidance. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -41 points to 39,166, the Shanghai Index jumped 57 points to 3,015, and the Hang Seng Index dipped -25 points to 16,511. In Europe, the German DAX is higher by 82 points to 17,683, while the FTSE 100 is up 20 points to 7,644. Bitcoin prices extend gains, back up 4% over $63K after a $7,000 swing from highs to lows yesterday as volatility increases. In politics, Congressional leaders reached a last-minute deal to avoid an imminent US government shutdown.

 

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -23.39 points, or 0.06%, to 38,949.02.
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -87.56 points, or 0.55%, to 15,947.74.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -15.80 points, or 0.77% to 2,040.31.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.874M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Income M/M for January…est. +0.4%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Spending M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                  PCE Price Index M/M for January…est. +0.3%
• 8:30 AM ET                  PCE Price Index Y/Y for January…est. +2.4%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index M/M for January…est. +0.4%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for January…est. +2.8%
• 9:45 AM ET                  Chicago PMI for February…est. 48.0
• 10:00 AM ET                Pending Home Sales M/M for January…est. +1.0%
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 10:50 AM ET                Fed’s Bostic Participates in Fireside Chat
• 11:00 AM ET                Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for February
• 11:00 AM ET                Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Remarks on Monetary Policy
• 1:15 PM ET                   Fed’s Mester Speaks on Financial Stability and Regulation
• 8:10 PM ET                   Fed’s Williams Participates in Moderated Discussion

• Earnings After the Close: ADSK AINC ARLO BHR COO CUBE DELL DMTK ESTC EVLV GDEN HPE JAKK MTZ NTAP NVTS ORGO PBYI PTCT PX REAL RPAY SENS SG SOUN TGLS VEEV XPOF YMAB ZS

• Piper West Coast Financials Services Conference, 2/28-3/1, in Las Vegas
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for February
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI-Final for February

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	-0.34	78.20
Brent	-0.30	83.38
Gold	-4.20	2,038.50
EUR/USD	-0.0005	1.0831
JPY/USD	-0.69	149.48
10-Year Note	+0.031	4.305%

 

• Chinese equities finish strong following another news article surfaced on more crackdown on quant funds by banning a top-performing quant fund from stock index futures for 12 months.

• Hormel Foods (HRL) Q1 adjusted EPS $0.41 vs. est. $0.34 and revs $3.0B vs. est. $2.92B; backs FY24 adjusted EPS view $1.51-$1.65 (est. $1.54) and backs FY24 revenue view $12.2B-$12.5B (est. $12.18B).
• Monster Beverage (MNST) Q4 EPS $0.35 vs. est. $0.38; Q4 revs $1.73B vs. est. $1.755B; reports Q4 average net sales per case $9.12; volume 185.30M unit cases, +11% y/y, and gross margin 54.2% vs. 51.8% y/y.
• Sovo Brands (SOVO) Q4 adj EPS $0.26 vs est. $0.19, adj EBITDA $46Mm vs est. $39.92Mm, adj EBITDA mgn 15.7% on sales $292.1Mm vs est. $262.7Mm.

• Chemours Corp (CC) shares tumble after the company postponed reporting Q4 results for a second time last night (was originally due on Feb. 14) after reviewing internal control over financial reporting; places existing top management on administrative leave and appoints new CEO, CFO.
• Shoals Technology (SHLS) Q4 adj EPS $0.12 vs est. $0.17, adj EBITDA $39.1Mm vs est. $42.68Mm on revs $130.4Mm vs est. $131.94Mm, gr mgn 42.5%; guides Q1 revs $90-100Mm vs est. $133.73Mm and adj EBITDA $15-20Mm vs est. $43.52Mm; sees FY revs $480-520Mm vs est. $622.7Mm, adj EBITDA $150-170Mm vs est. $203.16Mm, adj net Inc $90-110Mm vs est. $110.7Mm.

• Marathon Digital (MARA) Q4 adj EBITDA $260.4Mm vs est. $63.35Mm, EPS $0.66 vs est. $0.03; gains on digital assets $213.6Mm during Q4 vs none year ago.
• Marqueta Inc. (MQ) Q4 EPS ($0.08) vs est. ($0.08), adj EBITDA $3Mm vs est. ($4.26)Mm on revs $119Mm vs est. $110.6Mm, gross margin 70%.

• Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) shares tumble pre mkt after announces topline results from global phase iii trial of once-weekly apraglutide in adults with short bowel syndrome with intestinal failure (SBS-IF)
• Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) Q4 adj EPS $5.02 vs. est. $5.18; Q4 revs $1.01B vs. est. $1B; sees FY24 adjusted EPS $18.15-$19.35 below consensus $19.94 and FY24 revenue $4B-$4.2B vs. est. $4.09B; 27% year-over-year revenue increase from combined key growth drivers: Xywav, Epidiolex and Rylaze.
• Natera Inc. (NTRA) Q4 EPS ($0.65) vs est. ($0.73) on revs $311.1Mm vs est. $285.58Mm; guides FY revs $1.32-1.35B vs est. $1.276B and net cash consumption of $50-75Mm.
• Sarepta (SRPT) Q4 adj EPS $0.82 on revs $396.8M vs. est. $385M; had about $1.7 billion in cash, cash equivalents, investments, and long-term restricted cash as of December 31, 2023; decrease in cash, cash equivalents, investments & long-term restricted cash driven by cash used to fund co’s ongoing operations during 2023; Q4 ELEVIDYS revenues totaled $131.2M and for full year totaled $200.4M.
• Sotera Health (SHC) 25M share Secondary priced at $14.75.
• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) 6.47M share Secondary priced at $85.00.

• Snowflake (SNOW) Q4 revs rose 32% y/y to $774.7M vs. est. $760.4M as product revenue rose 33% y/y; posted Q4 EPS loss (-$0.51) vs. (-$0.64) y/y; forecasts Q1 product rev. $745M-$750M below est. $769.5M; CEO Slootman to retire, remains as Chairman.
• C3.ai inc. (AI) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.13) vs. est. loss (-$0.28); Q3 revs rose 78.4% y/y to $78.4M vs. est. $76.1M. "We had a great quarter; said Q3 customer engagement grew 80% y/y; sees FY24 revenue $306M-$310M vs. est. $306.1M.
• Electronic Arts (EA) announces restructuring plan, 5% workforce reduction.
• DoubleVerify Holdings (DV) Q4 revs rose 29% y/y to $172.2M vs. est. $171.9M; sees Q1 revenue $134M-$140M, below consensus $147.09M and adjusted EBITDA $33M-$37M; for 2024, guides 2024 revenue $688M-$704M below consensus $707.89M and sees 2024 adjusted EBITDA $205M-$221M.
• Duolingo (DUOL) Q4 adj EBITDA $35.195Mm vs est. $30.7Mm, bookings $191.032Mm, revs $150.985Mm vs est. $148.1Mm; sees Q1 revs $164M-$167M.
• HPQ Inc. (HPQ) Q1 EPS adj $0.81 vs est. $0.81 on revs falling -4.4% y/y to $13.2B vs est. $13.654B; guides Q2 adj EPS $0.76-0.86 vs est. $0.81; sees FY adj EPS $3.25-3.65 vs est. $3.45.
• IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) Q4 adj EBITDA ($20.0)Mm vs est. ($22.85)Mm on revs $6.1Mm vs est. $5.762Mm; guides FY revs $37-41Mm vs est. $38.89Mm, bookings $70-90Mm and adj EBITDA ($110.5)Mm at midpoint of revs vs est. ($92.96)Mm.
• Nutanix (NTNX) Q2 revs rose 37% y/y to $565.2M vs. est. $551.3M; Q2 adj EPS $0.46 vs. est. $0.29; Q2 adj operating margin 21.9% and operating income $123.9M; sees Q3 revs $510M-$520M vs. est. $510M.
• Okta Inc. (OKTA) Q4 adj EPS $0.68 vs est. $0.51 on revs $605Mm vs es t$587.5Mm, adj op Inc $129Mm vs est. $103.32Mm; guides Q1 revs $603-605Mm vs est. $584.78Mm, adj op Inc $108-110Mm vs est. $85.66Mm and adj EPS $0.54-0.55 vs est. $0.42; sees FY res $2.495-2.505B vs est. $2.476B, adj op Inc $455-465Mm vs est. $422.02Mm and adj EPS $2.24-2.29 vs est. $1.98.
• Paramount Global (PARA) Q4 adj EPS $0.04 vs. est. loss (-$0.01); Q4 revs $7.64B vs. est. $7.84B; said Q4 Paramount+ revenue increased 69%, DTC Adjusted OIBDA improved for the third consecutive quarter, and we now expect to reach domestic Paramount+ profitability in 2025; said for Q4, added 4.1 million subscribers for Paramount+, compared with 2.7 million in the previous quarter.
• Pure Storage (PSTG) Q4 EPS $0.50 vs. est. $0.44; Q4 revs $789.8M vs. est. $782.31M; sees FY25 revenue $3.1B, vs. consensus $3.14B and sees FY25 non-GAAP operating income $532M; approved incremental share repurchases of up to an additional $250 mln under its stock repurchase program.
• Schrodinger (SDGR) Q4 EPS ($0.32) vs est. ($0.38) on revs $74.1Mm vs est. $79Mm.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.