Early Look

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

After finishing mixed on Tuesday in a choppy session, U.S. stock futures are up slightly ahead of private payroll data this morning (ADP) and as the Trump tax/spending bill heads to the House for final approval after the Senate’s passage of the tax package yesterday. The Senate passed the legislation by the narrowest of margins as VP Vance was the deciding vote. Also on investors minds, upcoming tariff deadlines, as President trump said Tuesday, he was not thinking of extending the July 9 deadline for imposing tariffs and cast doubts that an agreement could be reached with Japan, although he expects a deal with India. The European Union’s trade chief is expected to hold talks this week with peers in Washington. Note the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged lower yesterday, pulling back off all-time highs on Monday while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained nearly 1%, and is roughly 1% from its December 4 record closing high. The leader yesterday was Smallcaps with the Russell rising nearly 1% as well as Industrials and Financials ended at record closing highs, big banks scored a record closing high, while regional banks, casinos, and transports, were among outperformers on Tuesday. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -223 points to 39,762, the Shanghai Index dipped about -3 points to 3,454, and the Hang Seng Index climbed 149 points to 24,221. In Europe, the German DAX is up 89 points to 23,762, while the FTSE 100 is up 22 points to 8,808. In stock news overnight, big banks revealed stock buybacks and dividend increases after recent stress tests with JPM, MS announcing largest buybacks and managed care names slump, led by CNC falling over -20% after withdrawing its earnings forecast.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 400.29 points, or 0.91%, to 44,495.06
• The Nasdaq Composite declined -166.85 points, or 0.82%, to 20,202.89
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 20.43 points, or 0.94% to 2,195.47

• 7:30 AM ET                  Challenger Job Layoffs for June…prior 93.816K
• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private payrolls for June…est. 95K (prior 37K)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: FC ZENV

• Weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) inventories showed Crude +680k build vs -2.26m expected: Gasoline +1.92mbuild and Distillates -3.46m drawdown; Cushing -1.42m drawdown.

• Constellation Brands (STZ) Q1 adj EPS $3.22 vs. est. $3.31 and sales $2.515B vs. est. $2.554B; beer business reports low-single digit net sales decline and mid-single digit operating income decline in 1Q; wine and spirits business reports double-digit organic net sales decline, triple-digit operating income declines in 1Q; sees FY26 comparable EPS $12.60-$12.90, vs. consensus $12.65.
• Ross Stores (ROST) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies and raise tgt to 4150 from $135 saying the retailer is well-positioned to outperform as comps should accelerate through the end of the year, and EBIT should expand by 170 basis points over the next three years.
• Tesla’s (TSLA) June China-made EV sales +0.8% y/y, 1st rise in 9 months; Q2 China-made deliveries fall 6.8% y/y, third such fall in a row; sees heightened threat from Chinese rivals.

• BrightView Holdings (BV) cuts FY25 revenue view to $2.68B-$2.73B from $2.75B-$2.84B (est. $2.78B), while narrows FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $348M-$362M from $345M-$365M saying they are seeing macro-economic factors impact our revenue performance, including timing delays of development projects and reduced discretionary spend, though continue to execute on One BrightView strategy.
• Greenbrier (GBX) Q3 adj EPS $1.86 on revs $842.7M; reaffirms FY25 revenue view $3.15B-$3.35B and raises FY25 CapEx view to $140M from $120M; raised its outlook for aggregate gross margin and operating margin.
• The Pentagon has halted some shipments of air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine over concerns that U.S. stockpiles are too low, Politico reported, citing people familiar with the issue.

• Bank of America (BAC) plans to increase quarterly dividend 8% to $0.28 per share after stress tests.
• Bank OZK (OZK) announces an increase to its quarterly common stock dividend by 2.33% to $0.44 and announces a preferred stock dividend.
• Goldman Sachs (GS) said it plans a 33% increase in common stock dividend to $4.00 per share.
• JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) said to increase quarterly dividend to $1.50 per share and authorizes $50B share repurchase program after bank stress tests.
• Morgan Stanley (MS) announces $0.075 dividend increase to $1.00 and authorization of a renewed $20B multi-year common equity share repurchase program.
• State Street Corporation (STT) announces a planned 11% dividend increase by 11% to $0.84 and preliminary stress capital buffer requirement.
• Wells Fargo (WFC) said it expects SCB to decrease to 2.5% from 3.8% and intends to raise dividend by 12.5% to $0.45.

• ArriVent Biopharma (AVBP) 2.5M share Spot Secondary priced at $19.50.

• Intel’s (INTC) new CEO is exploring a big change to its contract manufacturing business to win major customers, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters, in a potentially expensive shift from his predecessor’s plans.
• Netflix (NFLX) has held conversations with Spotify (SPOT) about partnering on a number of projects such as a music awards show or a live concert series, people close to the conversations said. It has also discussed doing big celebrity interviews and shorter-turnaround documentaries, the WSJ reported.
• Paramount (PARA) settled a lawsuit filed by U.S. President Donald Trump over an interview broadcast in October, agreeing to pay $16 million which will be allocated to future Trump presidential library.
• Thoma Bravo is negotiating the terms of a potential deal to acquire Verint Systems (VRNT), Bloomberg reports citing people familiar with the matter. Earlier today, Semafor reported that Verint is seeking a buyer.