Morning Preview: July 03, 2025

Early Look

Thursday, July 3, 2025

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

40.00

0.09%

44,816

S&P 500

2.25

0.04%

6,277

Nasdaq

9.50

0.04%

22,852

 

 

U.S. stock index futures held steady overnight as investors awaited the monthly jobs report for insights on the health of the labor market and the Federal Reserve’s plans for monetary easing. In trade news, the Trump administration has lifted export license requirements for chip design software sales in China, implementing a trade deal to ease some restrictions on essential technologies. Three leading semiconductor software providers — Synopsys (SNPS), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) and Germany’s Siemens (SIEGY) were told by the Commerce Department that they no longer need to seek licenses for business in China, lifting shares. Markets have been quiet the last two days, though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs on Wednesday (and the Dow about 1% from its ATH), boosted by gains in technology stocks and a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam that eased concerns.

 

President Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam saying goods imported to the US would face a 20% tariff, lower than the 46% tariff he had levied as part of his “Liberation Day” plans but higher than the blanket 10% tariff currently in effect. The news lifted shares of retailers that manufacture goods in Vietnam such as Nike (NKE), Wayfair (W) and ON Holdings (ONON). Now all eyes are on the nonfarm payrolls report for June, which is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET – a day ahead of schedule because the U.S. markets are closed on July 4 for Independence Day. Trading volumes are expected to be light, with markets closing early, at 1 p.m. ET on Thursday. The jobs data is expected to show the U.S. labor market slowed further in June, with the unemployment rate expected to have edged up to more than a three-and-a-half-year high of 4.3%. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 23 points to 39,785, the Shanghai Index gained 6 points to 3,461, and the Hang Seng Index fell -151 points to 24,069. In Europe, the German DAX is up 27 points to 23,818, while the FTSE 100 is up 30 points to 8,805. What a run it’s been for stocks as the S&P is now up 28.19% from the April 7th “Liberation Day” lows or in 55 trading days!

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index jumped 29.41 points, or 0.47%, to 6,227.42
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped -10.52 points, or 0.02%, to 44,484.42
  • The Nasdaq Composite gained 190.24 points, or 0.94%, to 20,393.13
  • The Russell 2000 Index advanced 28.84 points, or 1.31% to 2,226.38

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 8:30 AM ET                  Nonfarm payrolls for June…est. +110K (prior +139K)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Private Payrolls for June…est. +105K (prior +140K)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Manufacturing Payrolls for June…est. (-5K) vs. prior -8K
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Unemployment Rate for June…est. 4.3% (prior 4.2%)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Average Hourly Earnings M/M for June…est. +0.3% (prior +0.4%)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 240K
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.956M
  • 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, June-Final…prior 52.8
  • 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, June-Final…prior 53.1
  • 10:00 AM ET                Durable Goods Orders M/M for May
  • 10:00 AM ET                Factory Orders M/M for May
  • 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June…est. 50.5
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

-0.22

67.23

Brent

-0.21

68.90

Gold

4.30

3,364.00

EUR/USD

0.0001

1.1799

JPY/USD

0.11

143.79

10-Year Note

-0.034

4.259%

 

World News

  • The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +11.9 vs -5.2 last week. Bulls rise to 45% from 35.1%, Neutrals fall to 21.9% from 24.7%, Bears fall to 33.1% from 40.3%.
  • UK government bonds rallied on Thursday after Sir Keir Starmer said Rachel Reeves would be chancellor for a “very long time to come” following market jitters sparked by speculation about her future. Earlier, Starmer’s failure to confirm her position in Parliament, coupled with Reeves’ emotional appearance, triggered a sell-off of UK assets amid concerns over fiscal stability.
  • President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy are expected to discuss the abrupt halt in some key U.S. weapons deliveries to Kyiv in a call on Friday, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

  • Lucid (LUCD) reported 3,309 vehicle deliveries in Q2, a record quarter, and topping the 2,394 delivered in the same period a year earlier. For the 1H’25, deliveries totaled 6,418, up almost 50% y/y.
  • Tesla (TSLA) ended a six-session losing streak even as the electric-vehicle maker posted its worst quarterly decline for deliveries in its history. The company delivered 384,122 cars in the second quarter, down 13.5% from the 444,000 cars delivered a year earlier. The results were better than Wall Street expectations.
  • Tesla’s (TSLA) new car sales in Germany down 60% in June y/y to 1,860
  • Xponential Fitness (XPOF) said the Securities and Exchange Commission concluded its investigation into the company without acting.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

  • Enterprise Products (EPD), and Energy Transfer (ET): The U.S. Commerce Department moved to withdraw a licensing requirement on ethane exports to China imposed earlier this year. Enterprise is one of the largest U.S. handlers and exporters of ethane, operating a major export terminal at Morgan’s Point, Texas.
  • Nippon Steel (NPSCY) said it would raise 800 billion yen ($5.6 billion) through two subordinated loans to partially fund its recent $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel and refinance previous loans.

Financials

  • BlackRock Inc (BLK) is in talks with Saudi Aramco to divest its stake in the leasing rights of a natural gas pipeline network back to the state oil major, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday.
  • Franklin Covey (FC) Q3 EPS ($0.11) vs est. ($0.04), adj EBITDA $7.307Mm vs est. $4.523Mm on revs $67.121Mm vs est. $67.5Mm; guides FY revs $265-275Mm vs est. $276.55Mm and adj EBITDA $28-33Mm vs est. $30.54Mm.

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • Datadog (DDOG) will join the S&P 500 index before the open on July 9, replacing Juniper Networks (JNPR) after Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) closed its Juniper Networks deal on Wednesday (watch shares of HOOD, APP, ARES, LNG which were named as potential S&P 500 inclusions).
  • Synopsys (SNPS), Cadence (CDNS) shares rise overnight after the US eased export restrictions on China for chip design software, as software firms like Synopsys, Cadence and Siemens (SIEGY) said they will now sell their chip design tools to Chinese customers again. https://tinyurl.com/27cj6j8v
  • Tripadvisor (TRIP) shares climbed after The Wall Street Journal reported activist investor Starboard Value had built an over 9% stake in the travel company https://tinyurl.com/3e6rxdd4
  • Meta Platforms (META) was upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Needham with no price target saying channel checks are driving upside to the firm’s estimates, but the analyst remains on the sidelines with a Hold because the firm believes Meta’s strategy diffusion wastes capital and adds risks.
  • Alibaba Group (BABA) said it is seeking to raise around HK$12 billion ($1.53 billion) through exchangeable bonds to boost investments in cloud infrastructure and global commerce operations.
  • The latest version of U.S. President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” could make it cheaper for semiconductor manufacturers to build plants in the U.S. Under the bill, tax credits for semiconductor firms would rise to 35% from 25%, which is more than the 30% increase in the draft version of the bill – CNBC. Companies eligible for the credits include Intel (INTC), TSM (TSM), and Micron Technology (MU), provided they expand their manufacturing in the U.S. before a 2026 deadline https://tinyurl.com/mr4yj4jc

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.