Early Look

Thursday, July 13, 2023

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	58.00	0.17%	34,608
S&P 500	15.00	0.33%	4,522
Nasdaq	106.00	0.69%	15,550

 

 

U.S. futures looking to add to Wednesday’s sharp rally, as sentiment rises overseas following the “tamer” than expected CPI inflation report yesterday that rocketed US stocks higher. Bonds and stocks both rose after the US consumer price index came in below forecasts, lifting bets the Federal Reserve is very near the end of its rate-hike cycle. The US inflation rate slid to 3%, the lowest level in more than two years, prompting further weakness in the US dollar (down 5 days in a row), and Treasury yields. Stock strength was again broad based on Wednesday, with utilities leading. Later this morning, Wall Street gets another inflation report with June Producer Prices (PPI) at 8:30 and then attention turns to earnings season. This morning Pepsi and Delta Airlines both with beat and raises lifting shares of each. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 475 points to 32,419, the Shanghai Index jumped 40 points to 3,236, and the Hang Seng Index gained 489 points to 19,350. In Europe, the German DAX is up 92 points to 16,115, while the FTSE 100 gains 26 points to 7,442.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index gained 33.11 points, or 0.75%, to 4,472.37.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 87.85 points, or 0.26%, to 34,349.27.

·     The Nasdaq Composite jumped 158.26 points, or 1.15%, to 13,918.96.

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 20.02 points, or 1.05% to 1,933.38.

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET            Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 250K

·     8:30 AM ET            Continuing Claims…est. 1.723M

·     8:30 AM ET            Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline M/M for June…est. +0.2% (prior -0.35)

·     8:30 AM ET           Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline Y/Y for June…est. +0.4% (prior +1.1%)

·     8:30 AM ET            PPI Core Ex: Food & Energy M/M for June…est. +0.2% (prior +0.2%)

·     8:30 AM ET            PPI Core Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for June…est. +2.6% (prior +2.8%)

·     10:30 AM ET          Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

·     1:00 PM ET             US Treasury to sell $18B in 30-year notes.

·     2:00 PM ET             Federal Budget for June…est. (-$175B)

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: CAG CTAS DAL FAST PEP PGR

·     Earnings After the Close: EDUC

 

Other Key Events:

·     SEMICON West 2023, 7/11-7/13

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.08	75.83
Brent	0.28	80.39
Gold	2.80	1,964.50
EUR/USD	0.0037	1.1164
JPY/USD	0.01	138.53
10-Year Note	-0.045	3.816%

 

 

World News

·     Chinese June Trade Balance showed +$70.62B vs +$74.8B consensus; Exports declined-12.4% y/y vs -9.5% consensus and Imports dropped -6.8% y/y vs -4% consensus. China Customs Bureau: H1 exports rose 3.7% y/y, imports fell 0.1% y/y; Chinese trade growth is facing relatively large pressure; confident China can consolidate their mkt share of global trade in 2023.

·     The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 15.1 vs 21.9 last week. Bulls fall to 41% from 46.4%, Neutrals rise to 33.1% from 29.1%, Bears rise to 25.9% from 24.5%.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     PepsiCo (PEP) Q2 core EPS $2.09 vs. est. $1.96; Q2 revs $22.32B vs. est. $21.73B; raises its annual revenue and profit forecast, as sees 2023 organic revenue rise 10%, compared with previous forecast of 8% increase and core EPS of $7.47 vs. prior view of $7.27 citing resilient demand and boost from price hikes.

·     AutoLiv (ALV) said that it plans to close sites in Elmshorn, Germany, and Congleton, U.K., as it makes the first steps in its previously announced cost-cutting plan.

·     MillerKnoll (MLKN) 4Q adj EPS $0.41 vs est. $0.39 on sales $956.7Mm vs est. $945.56Mm; guides 1Q adj EPS $0.18-0.24 vs est. $0.40 and sees FY adj EPS $1.70-2.00 vs est. $1.81.

 

Energy, Industrials and Energy

·     Oil demand is set to hit a record high this year and the market is tightening but economic headwinds and interest rate hikes have deflated growth expectations slightly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. While demand is expected to reach 102.1 million barrels per day (bpd), the IEA lowered its forecast for growth by 220,000 barrels per day (bpd), to 2.2 million bpd.

·     Delta Airlines (DAL) Q2 adj EPS $2.68 vs. est. $2.41; Q2 revs rose 19% y/y to $14.61B vs. est. 14.44B; raises FY adj EPS to $6.00-$7.00 from prior high end of $5.00-$6.00 view; reiterating recently updated outlook for $3b free cash flow for 2023; sees FY total revenue +17%-20% y/y.

·     Clearway Energy, Inc. (CWEN) announced that wind production for its fleet in Q2 of 2023 was approximately 25% below internal median production estimates, which was inclusive of the Alta Wind Complex’s wind production at approximately 20% below internal expectations.

·     Fastenal (FAST) Q2 EPS $0.52 vs. est. $0.53; Q2 revs $1.88B vs. est. $1.89B; Daily sales $29.4 million, +5.8% y/y, estimate $29.5M; said impact of price/cost was immaterial to our gross profit percentage in Q2.

·     NextEra Energy (NEE) and Sysco (SYY) collaborate to develop a plan to reduce the foodservice leader’s carbon emissions on a scale.

·     PG&E Corp’s (PCG) shares slip as Reuters reported Morgan Stanley is re-offering 50 mln PCG shares, and that the likely seller is PG&E Fire Victim Trust, which holds ~127.74M shares for ~5.2% stake.

·     Virgin Galactic (SPCE) announced the flight window for the ‘Galactic 02’ mission. This mission will be Virgin Galactic’s seventh spaceflight, second commercial spaceflight and third spaceflight this year; flying three private passengers to space.

 

Financials

·     AllianceBernstein (AB) reports preliminary AUM $691B as of June 30, up from $670B at the end of May; market appreciation coupled with firmwide net inflows drove the 3% increase.

·     Artisan Partners (APAM) reported that its preliminary assets under management, or AUM, as of June 30 totaled $143B.

·     Franklin Resources (BEN) preliminary month-end assets under management of $1.43 trillion on June 30, 2023, compared to $1.40 trillion at May 31, 2023. This month’s increase in AUM reflected the impact of positive markets and modest long-term net inflows.

·     Lazard Ltd (LAZ) preliminary assets under management as of June 30, 2023 totaled approximately $239.3 billion. The month’s AUM included market appreciation of $7.7 billion, foreign exchange appreciation of $1.6 billion and net inflows of $0.1 billion.

·     SoFi (SOFI) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley but raised tgt to $7 from $6.50.

·     Invesco (IVZ) reports preliminary AUM $1.54T as of June 30; an increase of 3.4% versus the previous month-end. The firm delivered net long-term inflows of $2.9B in the month. Non-management fee earning net inflows were $0.9B and money market net inflows were $4.9B.

·     Victory Capital (VCTR) reported assets under management of $161.6B as of June 30, 2023, and average assets under management for June of $158.7B.

·     Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. (VRTS) prelim assets under management of $168.3B as of June 30, 2023; increase primarily reflected the addition of $7.8B of assets from the acquisition of AlphaSimplex Group, LLC, market appreciation, and institutional net inflows.

 

Healthcare

·     Bicycle Therapeutics (BCYC) 9.412M share Spot Secondary priced at $21.25.

·     Cryoport (CYRX) shares tumbled after lowering FY23 revenue view to $233M-$243M from $270M-$290M and well below the consensus of $274.85M.

·     Intercept (ICPT) double upgraded to Buy from Sell at H.C. Wainwright and boosted price tgt to $19 from $8 citing three major value inflection points.

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) will replace Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) in the Nasdaq-100 Index, the Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted Index, and the Nasdaq-100 Ex-Tech Sector Index prior to market open on Monday, July 17, 2023.

·     ViaSat Inc. (VSAT) plunged 22% after saying an unexpected event occurred during reflector deployment that may materially impact the performance of the ViaSat-3 Americas satellite.

·     Walt Disney Co (DIS) extended CEO Robert Iger’s contract by two years until 2026. Iger returned as CEO in Nov. 2022, less than a year after he retired.