Early Look

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

U.S. futures edge higher overnight ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision later in the day (2:00 pm et), which is expected to show no change to interest rate policy, but markets will watch for comments about inflation and the outlook of rates in coming months. The Fed is also expected to update their “dot-plot” (the first update to estimates for growth, inflation, unemployment since the April tariff announcements). Meanwhile, investors watching the conflict between Iran and Israel intensify overnight while looking for signs that the US has joined the Middle East conflict. Yesterday, President Trump said, “our patience is wearing thin” and met with his national security team on Tuesday, raising speculation that the US could join Israel’s offensive. Iran has warned it will respond firmly if the US crosses a red line into involvement. Oil prices are pulling back this morning along with gold. Stocks came under pressure Tuesday but continue to hover near record highs, staging a ferocious comeback since their April lows and remain higher on the year so far. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 348 points to 38,885, the Shanghai Index was up 1 point to 3,388, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -269 points to 23,710. In Europe, the German DAX is down -90 points to 23,343. while the FTSE 100 is flat at 8,833.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -299.29 points, or 0.70%, to 42,215.80
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -180.12 points, or 0.91%, to 19,521.09
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -22.17 points, or 1.04% to 2,101.96

• 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 245K
• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.932M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Housing Starts M/M for May…est. 1.357M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Building Permits M/M for May…est. 1.428M
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Rate Meeting; no change to rates expected
• 4:00 PM ET                   Net Long-term TIC Flows for April

• Earnings After the Close: SWBI

• A National Association for Business Economics survey released on Monday showed economists expect 2025 GDP growth to ebb to 1.3%, down from the 1.9% projected in early April, with inflation ending the year at 3.1%, a percentage point higher than the reading in April and well above the Fed’s 2% target.
• UK inflation cooled in May as expected by the Bank of England, which is set to keep interest rates on hold this week. Consumer prices rose in annual terms by 3.4% in May, in line with consensus. Services price inflation – a crucial metric for the BoE – cooled to 4.7% from 5.4% in April, matching the BoE’s forecast for May.
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned that direct U.S. military assistance to Israel could radically destabilize the situation in the Middle East.

• MakeMyTrip (MMYT) 16M share Secondary priced at $90.00.
• Wal-Mart (WMT) has now declined for 10 consecutive days, its longest losing streak since June 2004.
• Shares of Peloton (PTON), Xponential Fitness (XPOF) and Planet Fitness (PLNT) closed lower Tuesday after Senate’s proposed bill omitted the House’s provisions allowing for the use of health savings accounts for certain fitness allowances. The House’s bill allowed for gym memberships and other physical fitness activities to be paid for with HSAs, up to a limit of $500 per year for individuals and $1,000 per year for families.

• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and Vodafone (VOD) announced a strategic partnership to expand mobile connectivity across India’s unconnected regions.
• Rev Group (REVG) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• SkyWest (SKYW) announced an agreement to purchase and operate 16 new Embraer (ERJ) E175 aircraft under a multi-year contract for Delta Air Lines (DAL).

• Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) announced a $300 million convertible note offering.
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares edge higher overnight after the US Senate passed stablecoin legislation setting up regulatory rules for cryptocurrencies pegged to the dollar.

• Caris Life Sciences (CAI) 23.53M share IPO priced at $21.00

• Infosys (INFY) and Adobe (ADBE) announce strategic collaboration to turbocharge marketing transformation with AI.