Early Look

Friday, June 30, 2023

U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open now, with the S&P (Spuz) currently at the overnight high of 4,452, up +0.35% as stocks look to close out the quarter, month and 1H of 2023 near highs. Heading into the final day of June, the S&P 500 is on track for a 14.5% advance the first 6-months, the Dow a modest 3% advance, the Russell 2000 up 6.8%, and the Nasdaq a whopping 29.8% finish, its best 6-month tally to start a year since 1983. U.S. stocks ended mostly higher Thursday on positive tones from the banking sector and the economy on another round of strong data. This morning, investors get another look at inflation, with the monthly PCE and core PCE readings at 8:30 AM ET, as well as monthly personal income and spending. Recent data has shown a resilient economy, as GDP grew and jobs data remains strong, while inflation remains stubbornly high (though has continued to decelerate). Treasury yields jumped on Thursday following the data, with the 10-yr yield approaching 3.9%. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -45 points to 33,189, the Shanghai Index gained 19 points to 3,202, and the Hang Seng Index fell -17 points to 18,916. In Europe, the German DAX is up 183 points to 16,130, while the FTSE 100 rises 52 points to 7,524. The Japanese yen overnight weakened to 145 per dollar for the first time since November overnight but is now back below.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET             Personal Income M/M for May…est. +0.3%

·     8:30 AM ET             Personal Spending M/M for May

·     8:30 AM ET             PCE Price Index M/M for May

·     8:30 AM ET             PCE Price Index Y/Y for May

·     8:30 AM ET             Core PCE Price Index M/M for May…est. +0.3%

·     8:30 AM ET             Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for May…est. +4.7%

·     9:45 AM ET             Chicago PMI for June…est. 44.0

·     10:00 AM ET           University of Michigan Confidence, Jun-F…est. 63.9

·     10:00 AM Et            University of Michigan a 1 and 5-year inflation expectations

·     1:00 PM ET              Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: STZ

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index jumped 19.58 points, or 0.45%, to 4,396.44.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 269.79 points, or 0.80%, to 34,122.45.

·     The Nasdaq Composite dipped -0.42 points, or 0.00%, to 13,591.33.

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 22.88 points, or 1.23% to 1,881.59.

World News

·     China’s factory activity in June contracted for a third month, as the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in June, compared to 48.8 in May and 49.2 in April, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Friday.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Nike Inc. (NKE) Q4 EPS $0.66 vs. est. $0.67; Q4 revs rose 4.8% y/y to $12.83B vs. est. $12.59B; Q4 Direct sales $5.5B, up 15%; Q4 gross margins 43.6% vs. 45% y/y; Q4-end inventories $8.5B, flat y/y; cash and equivalents -$2.3B from last year to $10.7B; Q4 North America revenue rose 4.7% y/y to $5.36B (est. $5.28B) and Greater China revs +16.1% y/y to $1.81B (vs. est. $1.64b); said sees sustainable, profitable growth in FY24 and beyond.

·     Tesla (TSLA) is expected to report record Q2 vehicle deliveries this weekend. Expectations are for global deliveries of 445,000 vehicles from April to June, according to the average estimates of nine analysts by Refinitiv.

·     Xpeng (XPEV) launches and prices its G6 SUV model at 209,900 yuan ($28,944.54) per unit in mainland China. The G6 priced 20% below Tesla’s Model Y starting price of 263,900 yuan ($36,390.97); G6 receives 25,000 orders in 72-hour presale window – South China Morning Post.

Energy. Industrials and Materials

·     Enovix (ENVX) announced the appointment of Farhan Ahmad as Chief Financial Officer, replacing Steffen Pietzke, who is stepping down effective July 9.

·     Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. (SPR) workers approved a new labor contract, ending a six-day strike that threatened to disrupt output at plane makers Boeing Co. (BA) and Airbus SE (EADSY). About 6,000 members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers voted to ratify a four-year contract with the aerospace company.

Financials

·     Root Inc. (ROOT) shares -20%; said in statement its Board of Directors has always considered and evaluated, and will continue to consider and evaluate, any bona fide proposal or opportunity to enhance shareholder value in accordance with its fiduciary duties. Currently, Root is not in receipt of any proposal that is either actionable or in the best interests of Root’s shareholders.

·     Bank of America (BAC) is facing $100 billion in paper losses in bond markets; these losses are reportedly due to interest rate increases, the same reason that $SIVB and $FRC collapsed, according to the Financial Times.

·     Fed Discount-window loans $3.21B in week ended June 28 after $3.2B; Fed bank term funding loans $103.1B in week ended June 28 after $102.7B.

·     BGC Partners Inc (BGCP) reaffirmed its previously stated outlook ranges for revenue and pre-tax adjusted earnings for Q2.

Healthcare

·     Accolade Inc. (ACCD) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.52) vs. est. loss (-$0.62); Q1 revs $93.23M vs. est. $90.3M; sees FY24 revenue $410M-$414M vs. est. $409.93M; sees FY24 adj EBITDA loss $6M-$12M.

·     Aurinia (AUPH) board of directors announces exploration of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value; said has accepted recent director resignations and has initiated a search for new directors.

·     Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX) 15M share Secondary priced at $5.00.

·     Calithera Biosciences (CALA) said it was unable to reach a quorum of stockholders at its special meeting to approve its plan of complete liquidation and dissolution.

·     PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) announced that the MIT-E trial of vatiquinone for the treatment of mitochondrial disease associated seizures – MDAS – failed to achieve its primary endpoint of reduction in observable motor seizures.

·     Renalytix PLC (RNLX) shares rose after saying the FDA granted marketing authorization to its AI-based test to assess risk of progressive decline in kidney function in adults with diabetes and early-stage kidney disease.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Adobe Systems (ADBE) $20 billion planned purchase of Figma could reduce innovation, the U.K. Competition and Markets Authority said Friday. The regulator said that Figma has established a substantial share of the market for screen design software and that Adobe has been continuously investing in and competing in this segment. https://tinyurl.com/5xsfm2yc

·     Progress Software (PRGS) Q2 EPS $1.06 vs. est. $0.90; Q2 revs $178.3M vs. est. $169.78M; sees FY adj EPS $4.16-$4.24, vs. prior $4.09-$4.17 (est. $4.11) and sees adj revs $690M-$698M up from prior view $680M-$688M (est. $683.7M); still sees adjusted operating margin 38% to 39%.

·     SMART Global Holdings (SGH) Q3 adj EPS $0.66 vs. est. $0.40; Q3 revs fell -17.1% y/y to $383M vs. est. $375.5M; Q3 non-GAAP gross margin increased to 28.0%, an improvement of 230 bps y/y; sees Q4 revenue $375M, plus or minus $25M vs. est. $375.89M.