Early Look

Monday, June 30, 2025

U.S. futures add to last week’s gains, rising to a new record overnight and on track for its 7th straight day of gains after the S&P 500 notched its first new high since February (the 4^th new high of year overall) Friday and is up about 25% from the April tariff-induced selloff. The 89 trading days in between records marked the swiftest-ever recovery back to a closing high after a decline of at least 15%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. A combination of lower inflation readings (leading to increased hopes of a Fed rate cut), investors chasing technology/AI related stocks for 2-months and continued trade negotiations between the U.S. and trading partners including China and the European Union are among the factors lifting spirits ahead of the looming deadline for tariff hikes. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite marked record closing highs on Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.44%, the Nasdaq rose 4.25%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 3.82% and the Russell 2000 index rose 3.07% for the week. AI chip leader Nvidia Corp was the S&P 500’s biggest index point boost on the day as it added about 1.8% and scored a record closing high for the third consecutive session and Nike (NKE) surged on earnings. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 336 points to 40,487, the Shanghai Index gained 20 points to 3,444, and the Hang Seng Index declined -211 points to 24,072. In Europe, the German DAX is down -33 points to 24,000, while the FTSE 100 slips -15 points to 8,783. In stocks news, US banks are flat to slightly higher after results of the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests showed the largest U.S. lenders were well-positioned to withstand a severe economic downturn late Friday.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 432.43 points, or 1.00%, to 43,819.27
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 105.55 points, or 0.52%, to 20,273.46
• The Russell 2000 Index edged higher 0.42 points, or 0.02% to 2,172.53

• 10:30 AM ET                Dallas Fed Manufacturing for June
• 12:00 PM ET                Monthly crop report for June
• Earnings Before the Open: None
• Earnings After the Close: PETV PRGS QMCO

• Japan’s industrial production rose less than expected in May (-1.8% y/y), missing analysts’ estimates (-1.6% y/y) as the US tariffs hit the nation’s exports.
• During an interview broadcast with Fox News, President Donald Trump said Japan engages in “unfair” automobile trade with the U.S. and should increase its imports of U.S. energy resources and other goods.
• President Donald Trump said U.S. trade talks with Canada will be stopped “until such a time as they drop certain taxes – Reuters.
• Elon Musk tweeted this weekend regarding the “Big Beautiful Bill, “The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country! Utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.”

• Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) said its Board of Directors has named Christopher Nelson as the Company’s next President and Chief Executive Officer, effective October 1, 2025. Mr. Nelson currently serves as Stanley Black & Decker’s Chief Operating Officer and Executive Vice President and President of the Tools & Outdoor business. He will succeed Donald Allan, Jr., who has served as CEO since July 2022.

• Fortive (FTV) announced that it has completed the separation of its Precision Technologies segment, through the 100% spin-off of Ralliant (RAL) to its shareholders on June 28, 2025.
• Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) was mentioned positively in Barron’s saying the pipeline and storage company may be a compelling buy as artificial intelligence and cloud data centers demand more electricity. Barron’s noted the stock looks reasonably priced.
• Linde (LIN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup.
• Tronox (TROX) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital and cut tgt to $3.
• For Solar (ENPH, SEDG, FSLR, ARRY) and wind stocks, the new Senate draft raises taxes on all wind and solar projects that haven’t begun construction today unless they are placed service by end of 2027 and navigate complex, likely unworkable requirements to prove they don’t use a drop of Chinese materials. After that, this bill adds a new tax on wind and solar projects that can’t prove the same.

• Late Friday, Bill Pulte, the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, stated on “X”: “We are doing a full-scale review of all credit bureaus.” The three major, publicly traded credit bureaus in the U.S. are Equifax (EFX), Experian (EXPGY) and TransUnion (TRU). Note credit rating agency FICO (FICO) has also been a target of Pulte recently.

• Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) shares could be active after late Friday, the U.S. FDA said it had eliminated risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS), a safety program to protect patients from risky drugs, for currently approved CAR-T cell immunotherapies. REMS is required by the FDA to ensure a drug’s benefits outweigh its risks by managing serious safety concerns.

• Disney (DIS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies and raise tgt to $144 from $100 as now sees limited risk of a second half of 2025 Parks slowdown from Epic Universe and macro factors and is more positive on FY26 Cruise upside.
• Oracle (ORCL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel and raise tgt to $250 from $180 saying the recent dramatic step-up in capex and remaining performance obligation gains support mgmt Cloud growth expectations and these Cloud gains should generate accelerating revenue increases in coming years.
• Formula One (FWONA) mentioned positively in Barron’s saying it is poised to benefit as racing action heats up at the track and on movie screens. F1, from Apple Inc. and starring Brad Pitt, hit theaters on Friday and the actual racing calendar resumes this weekend, with the Austrian Grand Prix on Sunday.
• The U.S. Department of Justice has settled its antitrust lawsuit challenging Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s (HPE) acquisition of Juniper Networks (JNPR) valued at approximately $14B. Shares of both stocks are jumping pre mkt this morning.