Early Look

Friday, March 7, 2025

U.S. futures are looking slightly higher, getting a boost from beaten down semiconductor stocks as Broadcom (AVGO) reported a beat and raise quarter, sending shares higher by about 10% and lifting the SOX index after it fell -4.5% on Thursday in a broad market rout on slowing US growth concerns, and tariff impact fears. Investors are hoping the AVGO results can breathe life into the AI sector, which has been punished over the last two weeks, crushing names like NVDA, AVGO, ARM in chips, VRT, DELL, ETN in data centers, OKLO, VST, SMR in nuclear power among many others. But markets aren’t clear yet, as the 8:30 am et nonfarm payroll report remains a key market catalyst that can either push markets to new 2025 lows, or give markets a much needed bounce after a near 7% decline for the S&P from record highs 2-weeks ago. Economists are looking for +160 non-farm jobs added and +142K private payrolls. At this point, slowing US growth has been a major market concern so investors are likely looking for a solid report to ease fears.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -817 points to 36,887, the Shanghai Index fell -8 points to 3,372, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -138 points to 24,231. In Europe, the German DAX is tumbling -373 points to 23,046, while the FTSE 100 is down -31 points to 8,651. In other overnight stock movers, retailer GAP spikes on better earnings results, while shares of BBAI, COO, HPE, IOT and SERV all decline in post results. The US dollar adds to weekly losses, on track for a 4% decline against the euro this week, while oil prices rebound, and gold is flat ahead of jobs data.

As for Thursday, it was a continuation of market weakness as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed in correction territory for the first time in six months, as the sharp selloff in stocks resumed, ending down -10.4% from the Dec. 16 record high close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 430 points, or 1%, ending around 42,578, while the S&P 500 closed 1.8% lower at 5,738, but managed to finish above its key 200-day moving average of 5,931. President Trump on Thursday added more items to a list of products from Canada and Mexico subject to a temporary pause on 25% tariffs that were implemented earlier this week.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -427.51 points, or 0.99%, to 43,579.08
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -483.48 points, or 2.61%, to 18,069.26.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -34.19 points, or 1.63% to 2,066.55.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Private Payrolls for February…est. 142K (prior 111K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Manufacturing Payrolls for February…est. 5K (prior 3K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unemployment Rate for February…est. 4.0%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Average Hourly Earnings M/M for February…est. +0.3% (prior +0.5%)
• 10:45 AM ET                Fed’s Williams and Board Governor Bowman participate in panel discussion
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
• 2:00 PM ET                   Consumer Credit for January

• President Donald Trump on Thursday night authorized the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve and a separate US stockpile of other digital assets, fulfilling a campaign promise he made to an industry that is gathering at the White House Friday for a “crypto summit.”

• Costco Inc. (COST) Q2 total Co. comp sales incl gas, FX +6.8%, vs. est. +6.38%; Q2 EPS $4.02 vs est. $4.11 on sales $62.53B vs est. $61.909B; Q2 adj comps +9.1%, US comps +8.3%, e-comm comps +21%, adj e-comm comps +22.2%.
• El Pollo Loco (LOCO) Q4 adj EPS $0.20 vs est. $0.14, adj EBITDA $14.3Mm vs est. $11.5Mm on revs $114.3Mm vs est. $113.2Mm; guides FY +1-2 company units and +8-9 franchise units and CAPEX $30-34Mm.
• Funko (FNKO) Q4 adj EPS $0.08 vs. est. $0.00 and revs $293.7M vs. est. $286.1M; but guides Q1 EPS loss (-$0.48-$0.40) on revs $188M-$198M below ests loss (-$0.10) and $227.6M; guides FY sales $1.05B-$1.08B vs. est. $1.09B.
• Gap Stores (GAP) shares jump as Q4 EPS $0.54 vs est. $0.37 on sales $4.1B vs est. $4.07B, gr mgn 38.9%, comps +3%, ON +3%, Gap +7%, BR +4%, Athleta -2%; guides Q1 sales flat- to up slightly vs est. +1.55%, gr mgn up slightly; sees FY net sales +1-2% vs est. +1.7%, op Inc +8-10% vs est. +10.4%.
• Potbelly (PBPB) Q4 adj EPS $0.13 vs. est. $0.07; Q4 revs $116.63M vs. est. $116.37M; Q4 company-operated same-store sales increased 0.3%; sees FY25 adjusted EBITDA $33M-$34M and FY25 comp sales up 1.5%-2.5%.
• Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) Q3 adj EPS $0.02 vs est. $0.02 on sales $115.9Mm vs est. $119.46Mm, gr mgn 24.1%; CFO says new products continue to perform very well but seeing lower demand for core product portfolio, negatively impacting both top line and margins; sees FY revs 5-10% below FY24 vs est-8.3%.
• Tesla (TSLA) upgraded to Buy from Hold with $388 PT at TDCowen.
• Traeger (COOK) Q4 adj EPS ($0.05) vs est. $0.01, adj EBITDA $18.4Mm vs est. $17Mm on revs $168.637Mm vs est. $164.8Mm; guides FY revs $595-615Mm vs est. $628.18Mm and adj EBITDA $75-85Mm vs est. $88.41Mm.

• Intuitive Machines (LUNR) shares tumbled -30% after hours, following a decline of -20% on Thursday after difficulties landing the company’s Athena spaceship near the moon’s south pole. The craft touched down around noon Eastern time, but NASA’s broadcast of the landing finished without clear information on the status.

• Cooper Companies (COO) Q1 revs rose 3.6% y/y to $964.7M vs. est. $982.1M led by Cooper Vision revenue $646.1M, +4% y/y, and CooperSurgical revenue $318.6M, +2.7% y/y; still sees revenue $4.08B to $4.16B, vs. est. $4.12B and raises the low end of FY adj EPS view to $3.94-$4.02 vs prior forecast $3.92-$4.02.
• Surmodics (SRDX) issues statement on U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) challenge to proposed acquisition of Surmodics by funds affiliated with GTCR as defend this case in court in order to complete merger. SRDX said it respectfully disagrees with FTC’s decision and remains committed to completing the merger.
• Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) to be acquired by an entity affiliated with Sycamore Partners. The total value of the transaction represents up to $23.7B. WBA shareholders will receive total consideration consisting of $11.45 per share in cash at closing of the Sycamore transaction and one non-transferable right to receive up to $3.00 in cash per WBA share from the future monetization of WBA’s debt and equity interests in VillageMD, which includes the Village Medical, Summit Health and CityMD businesses

• Asure Software (ASUR) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.12) vs. est. $0.17; Q4 revs $30.8M, in-line with consensus $30.82M; sees Q1 revenue $33M-$35M vs. est. $35.13M and Q1 adjusted EBITDA $6.0M-$7.0M; guides year revs $134M-$138M vs. est. $134.6M.
• BigBear AI (BBAI) Q4 EPS ($0.43) vs est. ($0.04) on revs $43.827Mm vs est. $54.5Mm; guides FY revs $160-180Mm vs est. $200.79Mm.
• Domo Inc. (DOMO) Q4 EPS ($0.45) vs est. ($0.16) on revs $78.77Mm vs est. $78Mm, billings $102.6Mm; guides FY revs $310-318Mm vs est. $313.5Mm.
• Guidewire Software (GWRE) Q2 adj EPS $0.51, in-line with ests on revs up 20% y/y to $289.5M vs. est. $285.74; sees Q3 revenue $283M-$289M above consensus $279.35M and raises FY25 revenue view to $1.164B-$1.174B from prior view $1.155B-$1.167B and est. $1.16B.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) Q1 adj EPS $0.49 vs est. $0.49 on revs $7.854B vs est. $7.816B; guides Q2 revs $7.2-7.6B vs est. $7.934B and adj EPS $0.28-0.34 vs est. $0.50; guides FY revs +7-11% vs est. +7.96% and adj EPS $1.70-1.90 vs est. $2.13.
• Samsara (IOT) Q4 adj EPS $0.11 vs. est. $0.07; Q4 revs $346.3M vs. est. $335.33M; sees Q1 adj EPS $0.05-$0.06 vs. est. $0.05 and revs $350M-$352M vs. consensus $351.31M; sees FY26 adj EPS $0.32-$0.34 vs. est. $0.28 and Fy26 revs $1.523B-$1.533B vs. est. $1.53B.