Early Look

Thursday, March 9, 2023

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	12.00	0.04%	32,825
S&P 500	-6.25	0.17%	3,988
Nasdaq	-56.50	0.46%	12,171

 

 

U.S. futures mixed, with S&P trading in a narrow 20-point range overnight, holding around its 50-day moving average still as investors await yet more clues as to the pace of further interest rate hikes by the Fed in 2-weeks and going forward. Private payrolls and JOLTs data Wednesday showed continuing strength in the jobs market, with jobless claims data today and the Feb nonfarm payroll report tomorrow morning. Then next week, the Feb CPI and PPI inflation data will be the last key pieces before the Fed votes the following week. Central banking action also in focus with the Bank of Japan meeting overnight, Kuroda’s last as head, and could spark fireworks in currency markets. The Dow finished slightly lower Wednesday as the market fought to overcome Tuesday’s selloff, spurred by comments from Powell hinting at higher interest rates for longer. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 178 points to 28,623, the Shanghai Index dipped -7 points to 3,276, and the Hang Seng Index fell -125 points to 19,925. In Europe, the German DAX is down about -50 points to 15,580, while the FTSE 100 falls -40 points to 7,890. Some overnight blowups in financials with crypto banks Silvergate (SI) tumbling after announcing voluntary liquidation headlines and SIVB falls -30% after capital raise and slashing guidance.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index gained 5.64 points, or 0.14%, to 3,992.01.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -58.06 points, or 0.18%, to 32,798.40.

·     The Nasdaq Composite climbed 45.67 points, or 0.40%, to 11,576.00.

·     The Russell 2000 Index edged higher 0.75 points, or 0.04% to 1,879.48.

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     7:30 AM ET            Challenger Layoffs for February

·     8:30 AM ET            Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 195K

·     8:30 AM EST          Continuing Claims…est. 1.659M

·     10:30 AM ET          Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

·     1:00 PM ET             U.S. Treasury to sell $21B in 30-year notes.

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ANIP BBW BJ BWEN DLM DLTH DTC EMAN EWCZ GCO HBIO KPLT MEI OSG SGA TTC UP XXII

·     Earnings After the Close: ACHR AEYE AGS AIRG AOUT APPH ATER BIRD BKKT BNGO CMTL DOCU GEVO GHLD GPS HCP HYFM III JAKK JYNT LMNR LOCO MTN NNBR NX TLYS ULTA WLDN ZUMZ

 

Other Key Events:

·     BMO Capital Miami Property Tour, 3/8-3/9, in Miami, FL

·     Optical Fiber Communications Conference, 3/7-3/9, in San Diego, CA

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.26	76.92
Brent	0.12	82.78
Gold	4.80	1,823.40
EUR/USD	0.003	1.0576
JPY/USD	-1.12	136.23
10-Year Note	+0.01	3.986%

 

 

World News

·     China February Annual CPI +1.0% vs. est. +1.9% and prior +2.1%; monthly CPI (-0.5%) vs. est. +0.2% and prior +0.8%] and annual PPI (-1.4%) vs. est. (-1.3%) and prior (-0.8%)

·     The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -16.9 vs -21.4 last week. Bulls rise to 24.8% from 23.4%, Neutrals rise to 33.4% from 31.8%, Bears fall to 41.7% from 44.8%.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA) 2Q adj EPS $0.18 vs est. $0.17 on revs $103.5Mm vs est. $101.7Mm, adj EBITDA $38.8Mm vs est. $36.1Mm; guides FY23 net sales $398-404Mm vs est. $400.2Mm, adj EBITDA $135-138Mm vs est. $136.4Mm, adj EBS $0.63-0.65 vs est. $0.62.

·     Fossil Inc. (FOSL) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.18) as sales fell -17% y/y to $499.1M; Q4 gross margins 47.2% vs. 50.1% y/y; sees FY23 worldwide net sales to decline about 5% to net sales growth of 1% and expects full year 2023 adjusted operating income margin in range of about 0% to 3%

·     Noodles Co (NDLS) 4Q adj EPS $0.03 vs est. $0.03 on revs $136.5Mm vs est. $136Mm, adj EBITDA $9.9Mm; guides 1Q revs $125-128Mm vs est. $123.5Mm and comps +high-single digits; sees FY23 adj EBITDA $45-50Mm vs est. $51.75Mm and adj EPS $0.10-0.20 vs est. $0.41.

·     Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) is exploring whether to spin off its Uber Freight logistics unit in a sale or as a separate publicly traded firm, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday night.

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Earthstone Energy (ESTE) Q4 adjusted EPS $1.04 vs. est. $1.05; Q4 revs $494.96M vs. est. $468.06M; backs FY23 production view 96K-104K Boepd and backs Capex view $725M-$775M.

·     General Electric (GE) said it sees low double-digits to mid-teens adj rev growth in GE Aerospace in 2025 during investor presentation; sees profit margin of about 20% in GE Aerospace in 2025; sees FCF conversion of over 100% in GE Aerospace in 2025; says new engine demand driven by airframer build rates, underpinned by long-term industry health.

·     Norfolk Southern (NSC) president and CEO Alan Shaw will deliver testimony Thursday before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works.

 

Financials

·     American Express (AXP) approved repurchase of up to 120 mln common shares and board authorizes share repurchase plan, announces 15% dividend increase.

·     Silvergate Capital Corp. (SI) shares tumble overnight after announced its intent to wind down operations and voluntarily liquidate the Bank in an orderly manner and in accordance with applicable regulatory processes. Plan includes full repayment of all deposits.

·     Coinbase (COIN), Riot Platforms (RIOT), Marathon (MARA) shares all sliding early in crypto space after Silvergate (SI) announced plans to wind down operations.

·     SVB Financial Group (SIVB) shares tumble -29%; announces proposed offerings of common stock and mandatory convertible preferred stock; files to sell $1.25B of common stock, $500M of depositary shares; said It expects net interest margins will fall to between 1.45-1.55% this year, below its January forecast for 1.75-1.85%; also liquidated most of its securities portfolio, raising $21 billion, which it plans to re-invest in shorter-term debt.

·     Credit Suisse Group (CS) said it would delay its 2022 report due to a request from U.S. market regulators for more information on restated cash-flow statements in 2019 and 2020.

·     Cohen & Steers, Inc. (CNS) preliminary assets under management of $83.5 billion as of February 28, 2023, a decrease of $3.8 billion from assets under management at January 31, 2023.

 

Healthcare

·     Avenue Therapeutics Inc (ATXI) rises after saying it will participate in a meeting with the U.S. FDA to discuss a proposed study to assess the risk associated with IV administration of an already approved pain relief drug, tramadol.

·     Evolus Inc. (EOLS) 4Q EPS ($0.23) vs est. ($0.15) on revs $43.65Mm vs est. $43.8Mm, adj gr mgn 69.4%; guides FY revs $180-190Mm, adj gr mgn 68-71%; sees adj op Inc positive in 4Q23.

·     Glaxo (GSK) said it expects to launch its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in the U.S. this year without supply constraints; sees China as a major future market; vaccine has been backed by panel of outside advisers and awaits FDA approval by May.

·     Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) 4Q op Inc ($34.16)Mm vs est. ($34.92)Mm on revs $27.91Mm vs est. $24.57Mm, says pipeline on track for catalyst rich 2023.

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Asana Inc. (ASAN) as founder and CEO Dustin Moskovitz’s plan disclosed Wednesday to buy up to 30M shares — which would currently be worth about $700 million; also reported Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.15) vs. est. loss (-$0.27); Q4 revs $150.2M vs. est. $145.07M; guides Q1 revs $150M-$151M vs. est. $149,9M and narrower EPS loss for Q1 and year; said Q4 ARR from customers spending $100,000 or more grew 80% y/y; sees FY24 revenue $638M-$648M vs. est. $645.84M.

·     Etsy (ETSY) double- downgraded at Jefferies to underperform from buy citing the stock’s premium valuation and troubling buyer trends that could put pressure on growth.

·     Hudson Technologies (HDSN) 4Q EPS $0.11 vs est. $0.07 on revs $47.4Mm vs est. $37.4Mm, gross margin 32%.

·     JD. Com Inc. (JD) Q4 EPS $0.70 vs. est. $0.50; Q4 revs $42.84B vs. est. $42.73B; said revs driven by growth in both its retail and logistics businesses; initiates quarterly dividend of 62c per ADS.

·     MongoDB Inc. (MDB) Q4 adj EPS $0.57 vs. est. $0.07; Q4 revs $361.3M vs. est. $337.66M; said Q4 Atlas Revenue up 50% y/y; 65% of Total Q4 Revenue; Continued Strong Customer Growth with Over 40,800 Customers as of January 31, 2023; sees Q1 adjusted EPS 17c-20c vs. est. 14c and revs $344M-$348M vs. est. $355.93M.

·     SmartRent Inc. (SMRT) Q4 revs $40.6M vs. est. $47M; Q4 SaaS revs $8.1M, up 205% y/y; Q4 net loss of -($21.4M); sees Q1 revs $55M-$58M vs. est. $52.36M; sees 2023 total revs $55M-$58M.