Early Look

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

U.S. futures are edging higher ahead of key inflation data, as investors hope a “cooler” reading could boost chances of Fed rates cuts and take pressure off a struggling US economy. The Feb Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline inflation reading is at 8:30 am with est. +0.3% (prior +0.5%) and headline Y/Y for February est. +2.9% (est. +3.0%). The core CPI ests, ex Food & Energy M/M for February est. +0.3% (prior +0.4%) and Y/Y est. +3.2% (prior +3.3%). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 25 points to 36,819, the Shanghai Index fell -7 points to 3,371, and the Hang Seng Index declined -181 points to 23,600. In Europe, the German DAX is rising 313 points to 22,642, while the FTSE 100 is up 37 points to 8,533. In positive news last night, the U.S. House passed the stopgap spending bill (216-214), which now goes to Senate now for approval to try and avoid a government shutdown.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s increased tariffs on all U.S. steel and aluminum imports took effect on Wednesday, as the action to bulk up protections for American steel and aluminum producers by restoring effective global tariffs of 25% on all imports of the metals and extends the duties to hundreds of downstream products made from the metals, from nuts and bolts to bulldozer blades and soda cans. The European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union charged with coordinating trade matters, responded swiftly, saying it would impose counter tariffs on up to 26 billion euros ($28 billion) worth of U.S. goods.

U.S. stocks fell in another choppy session on Tuesday as Canadian lawmakers and President Trump threaten increased tariffs on electricity, steel and aluminum. All S&P 500 sectors end lower, with industrials losing 1.5%. Delta Air Lines dropping -7.3% after the company reduced its outlook citing reduced confidence among consumers and businesses, and economic uncertainty. Verizon stock falls 6.6% after a company executive flagged heightened industry competition at an investor conference. The US dollar has been tumbling while the euro hit a 5-month high of $1.0947, and has gained more than 5% this month, getting a boost yesterday after Ukraine agreed to a 30-dayceasefire proposal. The U.S. dollar rose to C$1.4521 against the Canadian dollar, its highest since March 4, before losing ground to fall -0.28% to C$1.4396.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -478.23 points, or 1.14%, to 41,433.48
• The Nasdaq Composite slipped -32.23 points, or 0.18%, to 17,436.10
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 4.53 points, or 0.22% to 2,023.60

• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline M/M for February…est. +0.3% (prior +0.5%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline Y/Y for February…est. +2.9% (est. +3.0%)
• 8:30 AM ET CPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for February…est. +0.3% (prior +0.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET CPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for February…est. +3.2% (prior +3.3%)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                Cleveland Fed CPI for February…prior +0.3%
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $42B in 10-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET                   Federal Budget for February…est. (-$303.15B) vs. prior (-$129.0B)

• Earnings After the Close: ADBE AEO ANIK AEYE BRY BRLT CDLX CVGW CCI FOSL LMNR PATH PHR QRHC S TLYS RAIL SKIN VSTA

• Cantor 2025 Global Technology Conference, 3/11-3/12, in New York
• Deutsche Bank 33rd Annual Media, Internet & Telecom Conference, 3/10-3/12 in Palm Beach, FL
• UBS Media, Internet and Technology Conference, 3/11-3/12, in London

• Groupon (GRPN) Q4 adj Ebitda fell -31% y/y to $18.7M vs. est. $19.4M; Q4 revs fell -5.3% y/y to $130.4M vs. est. $127.7M; number of active customers 15.4M, -6.7% y/y; Q4 billings $430.1M.
• PepsiCo (PEP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies.
• Porsche (POAHY) warned that lower sales, high costs and trade concerns would hurt 2025 earnings, even before a possible hike in U.S. tariffs on EU imports; sales dropped 3% last year and it expects even lower sales this year, with the depreciation of recent investments squeezing its margins to just 10-12%; pared back its mid-term margin target to 15-17%, from 17-19%.
• Stitch Fix (SFIX) Q2 EPS loss (-$0.05) vs. est. loss (-$0.11); Q2 revs $312.1M, vs. est. $298M; Q2 adj Ebitda $15.9M vs. est. $10.4M; SFIX reports active clients of 2,371,000, a decrease of 63,000, or 2.6%, quarter-over-quarter; and a decrease of 434,000, or 15.5%, y/y.

• Eaton (ETN) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) files automatic mixed securities shelf.
• Vitesse Energy (VTS) FY adj EBITDA $156.8Mm vs est. $159.5Mm on revs $241.998Mm vs. est. $244.9Mm; guides FY25 productions guidance 17,000-18,000 BOE/d; increases qtrly cash dividend to $0.5625.

• Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM) preliminary assets under management (“AUM”) as of February 28, 2025, totaled $167.7 billion. Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $81.3 billion of total AUM, while separate accounts and other AUM accounted for $86.4 billion.
• Capital One (COF) upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI.
• Heritage Insurance (HRTG) Q4 EPS $0.66 vs est. $0.56 on revs $210.264Mm vs est. $186.7Mm, combined ratio 89.7%, expense ratio 35%.
• Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $1,888.6B, a decrease of 0.7% versus previous month-end. The firm delivered net long-term inflows of $6.0B in the month. Non-management fee earning net inflows were $4.4B and money market net outflows were $7.1B. AUM was negatively impacted by unfavorable market returns which decreased AUM by $20B.

• MaxCyte Inc. (MXCT) Q4 adj EBITDA ($11.8)Mm vs est. ($10.14)Mm on revs $8.7Mm vs est. $7.93Mm; guides core FY25 revs +8-15%, sees SPL program-related revs approx $5Mm.
• Myriad Genetics (MYGN) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler.
• Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) Q4 EPS ($0.59) vs est. ($0.37) on revs $6.278Mm vs est. $16.58Mm; sees to meet planned operating expenses and CAPEX into mid-2027.
• Zealand Pharma (ZLDPF) said it would jointly develop and commercialize Zealand’s Petrelintide obesity drug candidate with Roche (RHHBY) as a standalone therapy and in combination with Roche’s CT-388 drug candidate. Under the deal, Zealand will get $1.65 billion in upfront cash payments and additional payments subject to reaching certain milestones that could take the total payments to $5.3 billion.
• Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) Q4 EPS ($0.67) vs est. ($0.40) on revs $12Mm vs est. $8.926Mm; sees funding sufficient into 2029.

• EW Scripps (SSP) shares surge overnight after announcing a deal to refinance up to $1.3B of debt; announces a series of transactions to refinance its revolver and 2026, 2028 term loans.
• HubSpot (HUBS) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays with an unchanged price target of $815
• Taiwan Semi (TSM) has approached U.S. chipmakers Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) about investing in a joint venture to operate Intel’s (INTC) factories, Reuters reported. Under the proposal, TSMC would manage Intel’s foundry division, which produces customized chips for clients, but would hold a stake of no more than 50%.