Early Look

Thursday, March 28, 2024

Following a late day surge on Wednesday that left major averages at record highs, U.S. futures are little changed as the S&P 500 trades within a 7-point range all night on this final trading day of the month and quarter. Coming into the last day of quarter the S&P 500 is up 10% YTD, the Nasdaq +9.25%, the Dow +5.5%, and the Russell 2000 Smallcap +4.3% YTD. The S&P 500 closed at highs Thursday, rising +0.85%, snapping its 3-day losing streak and avoiding its first 4-day losing streak since the first week of January (and hasn’t posted a close of more than 2% since Feb 21, 2023). Charlie Bilello tweets: "The S&P 500 closed at another all-time high today, its 21st of the year. Over the last 12 years, the S&P 500 has hit 368 all-time highs, which is more than any 12-year period in history." On a quiet day of news attention is squarely focused on economic data as today at 8:30 AM, we get Q4 final GDP with estimate of 3.2%, Personal Consumption to rise +3%, while inflation readings for GDP Price Deflator Q4-Final est. +1.6% and core PCE Prices Q4-Final est. +2.1%. Other data points include Chicago PMI for March (est. 46.0), University of Michigan Sentiment, March-Final (est. 76.5). The Fed’s preferred inflation number, the core PCE, is set for release tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM, while U.S. futures and stock markets are closed! The bond market closes early today at 2:00 PM and is closed tomorrow along with equity markets in observance of the Easter holiday. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -594 points to 40,168, the Shanghai Index rose 17 points to 3,010, and the Hang Seng Index gained 148 points to 16,541. In Europe, the German DAX rises 20 points to 18,497, while the FTSE 100 is up 23 points to 7,955.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 477.75 points, or 1.22%, to 39,760.08.
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 83.82 points, or 0.51%, to 16,399.52.
• The Russell 2000 Index surged 44.19 points, or 2.13% to 2,114.35.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.815M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q4-Final…est. +3.2%
• 8:30 AM ET                  GDP Price Deflator Q4-Final…est. +1.6%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Consumption for Q4-Final…est. +3.0%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Prices Q4-Final…est. +2.1%
• 9:45 AM ET                  Chicago PMI for March…est. 46.0 (prior 44.0)
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Sentiment, march-Final…est. 76.5
• 10:00 AM ET                Pending Home Sales M/M for February…est. +1.5%
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for March…est. (-5)
• 1:00 PM ET                   Bakr Hughes weekly rig count data

• Earnings After the Close: ACHV CURV HSDT LFLY OXM PL REED RKDA SMTC SOL VUZI WRAP ZVRA

• JP Morgan 13th Annual NAPA Valley Biotech Forum, 3/26-3/28, in San Francisco, CA

• Dole Plc (DOLE) announced that it has agreed with Fresh Express Incorporated to terminate the previously announced agreement under which Fresh Express would have acquired Dole’s Fresh Vegetables Division.
• MillerKnoll (MLKN) Q3 adj EPS $0.45 vs est. $0.44, adj op mgn 6.7% on revs $872.3Mm vs est. $909.5Mm, gr mgn 38.6%; sees Q4 net sales $880-920Mm vs est. $961.38Mm and adj EPS $0.49-0.57 vs est. $0.68.
• RH (RH) Q4 adjusted EPS $0.72 vs. est. $1.67 and revs $738.3M below consensus $777.5M; forecasting Q1 demand growth of positive mid-single digits and revenues of negative low-single digits and adj operating margin in the range of 6% to 7% and adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 12% to 13%; sees FY24 revenue up 8%-10%, implying $3.27B-$3.33B, vs. consensus $3.26B.
• Solventum Corp. (SOLV) will be added to the S&P 500 effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, April 1, replacing V.F. Corp. (VFC), which will be moved to the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the open of trading on Wednesday, April 3. V.F. will replace ModivCare Inc. (MODV) in the S&P SmallCap 600. S&P 500 and 100 constituent 3M Co. (MMM) is spinning off Solventum in a transaction expected to be completed April 1.
• Stellantis (STLA) said it is ready to cut more than 3,000 jobs in Italy, a local union says, as the company navigates a bumpy industry transition to electric and more digitized vehicles. The company is offering buyouts to about 3,600 workers across several factories in Italy.

• GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) will be added to the S&P 500 effective prior to the open of trading on Tuesday, April 2, replacing Dentsply Sirona Inc. (XRAY), which will be moved to the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the open of trading on Wednesday, April 3. Dentsply Sirona will replace Fox Factory Holding Corp. (FOXF) in the S&P MidCap 400, and Fox Factory Holding will replace The E.W. Scripps Co. (SSP) in the S&P SmallCap 600
• H.B. Fuller (FUL) Q1 EPS $0.67 vs. est. $0.64; Q1 revs $810.4M vs. est. $825.0M; said net revenue growth is expected to be in the range of up 2% to 6% with organic revenue flat to up 3% year-on-year; adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $610M-$640M, equating to growth of approximately 5% to 10% y/y; and adjusted EPS (diluted) is expected to be in the range of $4.15-$4.45, equating to y/y growth of between 7%-15%.
• MSC Industrial (MSM) Q2 adjusted EPS $1.18 vs. est. $1.16; Q2 revs $935.35M vs. est. $946.55M.

• LendingTree (TREE) says it has secured up to $175M in financing in the form of a first lien term loan facility from funds managed by Apollo affiliates.

• Avalo Therapeutics’ (AVLO) shares surged overnight as acquires Phase 2-ready anti-IL-1 mAb, AVTX-009, through acquisition of AlmataBio, Inc.; and announces private placement financing of up to $185M.
• Stoke Therapeutics (STOK) announced pricing of its upsized underwritten public offering of 5,555,557 shares of its common stock at a price of $13.50 per share.

• TD SYNNEX (SNX) announced proposed secondary public offering of 9M shares of its common stock; authorized purchase from underwriters of 500,000 shares of common stock as part of secondary public offering.
• Verint (VRNT) Q4 adj EPS $1.07 vs. est. $0.97; Q4 revs $265M vs. est. $263.12M; sees FY25 EPS midpoint $2.89, vs. est. $2.84 and guides FY25 revenue $930M, plus/minus 2% vs. est. $951.8M; said for current year, raising outlook to reflect AI momentum.