Early Look

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

After snapping its 9-day winning streak on Monday, both S&P (its longest since 2004) and Dow futures are looking lower again, as investors position themselves ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC policy meeting, where no change to rates is widely expected. Wall Street will listen closely to Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on how the economy is holding up following the impact of global tariffs about a month ago. Last night in earnings, automaker Ford (F) withdrew its full-year earnings forecast, warning that President Trump’s auto tariffs will cut 2025 adjusted EBIT by about $1.5B. The S&P 500 has recovered all of its early April “Liberation Day” losses (when tariffs were announced) with help from the longest winning streak for the benchmark index since 2004…but now, with the S&P 500 up about 14% from its April 8 low, and markets are wondering if the smooth path higher for the index will continue. U.S. stocks fell on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the U.S. though he provided no details on how such levies would be implemented. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said Trump’s tariff, tax-cut and deregulation agenda would work together to drive long-term investment to the U.S. economy, adding that U.S. financial markets were “anti-fragile” and would weather any short-term turbulence. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index remained closed for holiday, but the Shanghai Index reopened up 37 points to 3,316, while the Hang Seng Index jumped 158 points to 22,662. In Europe, the German DAX is down over -1% or 250 points to 23,094 after German conservative leader Friedrich Merz failed to garner the parliamentary majority needed to become chancellor, while the FTSE 100 is down -18 points to 8,578. Oil prices jump, with WTI crude rising 2.9% to $58.80 a barrel after hitting its lowest levels in months on Monday. The earnings barrage continues again this week, with around 19% of the S&P 500 on track to report, but overall, the largest volume of reports in the quarter.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -98.60 points, or 0.24%, to 41,218.83
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -133.49 points, or 0.74%, to 17,844.24
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -16.48 points, or 0.82% to 2,004.26

• 8:30 AM ET                  International Trade for March
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AFG AGL AHT AIZ ALAB ALGT AMD ANDE ANET ANGI ARDT ARIS ATRO AZEK BKD BL BWIN CC CGAU CHRD COTY CPAY CPNG CRC CRCT CRSR CRUS CYTK DAWN DEI DHT DSP DVAX DVN EA ET FBIN FLYW FTK GEN GPOR HALO HCKT HMN HRTTG IAG IFF INTA JAMF JAZZ JKHY KE KGC KLIC KVYO LAB LCID LITE LOPE MASI MCY MOS MRC MRCY MTW MYGN NRDS OPEN PARR POWL PTCT QLYS RIVN RVLV SMCI SRPT SU SVC SWIM TDS TEM UPST VOYA VRNS WTI WTTR WYNN

• Oppenheimer 20th Annual Industrial Growth Conference, 5/5-5/8

• In Germany, Friedrich Merz suffered a shock setback when he fell short of a majority in an initial vote in the lower house of parliament to confirm him as Germany’s next chancellor. Another vote won’t take place on Tuesday, according to people familiar with the deliberations in parliament.
• The euro zone economy continued to expand in April but at a slower pace as the HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 50.4 from 50.9 in March. The reading was only just above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction.
• British new car registrations fell more than 10% year-on-year in April, including a 62% plunge for Tesla. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said 120,331 vehicles were registered in the traditionally quieter month of April, with sales of new Tesla’s slumping to 512 from 1,352 in the same month a year ago.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said on Fox Business that the US expects to finalize trade deals soon and urged partners to adopt fairer practices, criticizing other countries for keeping markets closed while benefiting from US openness.

• Clorox Inc. (CLX) Q3 adj EPS $1.45, vs. est. $1.57; Q3 revs fell -8% y/y to $1.67B vs. est. $1.72B; backs adjusted EPS view $6.95-$7.35 vs. consensus $7.12 while reduced its FY25 revenue view to down 1% to flat vs. prior view down 1% to up 2%, vs. consensus $7.1B; said in Q3, macroeconomic uncertainties resulted in temporary category slowdowns & lower sales, expect slowdowns to persist in Q4.
• DoorDash (DASH) has agreed to acquire British rival Deliveroo for 2.9 billion pounds ($3.9 billion) in cash, expanding its business in Europe, Asia and the Middle East; DoorDash will pay 180 pence ($2.40) for each Deliveroo share, 29% more than the closing price on April 24.
• Ford Motor (F) Q1 adj EPS $0.14 vs. est. $0.02; Q1 revs $40.66B vs est. $36.20B; suspended its financial guidance and called out $1.5 billion in potential tariff impacts. It also expects vehicle prices to stay flat this year (In February, Ford management said they expected a 2025 operating profit of between $7B-$8.5B).
• Mattel Inc. (MAT) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.03) vs. est. loss (-$0.10); Q1 revs rose 2% y/y to $827M vs. est. $791.5M; Q1 gross margin of 49.4%, an increase of 140 basis points; Q1 Operating Loss of $53M, an increase of $17M; Pausing full-year 2025 guidance until company has sufficient visibility.
• ThredUP (TDUP) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.04) vs. est. loss (-$0.06); Q1 revs $71.3M vs. est. $67.54M; reports active buyers of 1.37M and orders of 1.37M; guides Q2 above ests and raises FY25 revenue view to $281M-$291M from $270M-$280M (est. $274.23M), while sees FY25 adjusted EBITDA margin 4%.

• Diamondback Energy (FANG) Q1 adj EPS $4.54 vs est. $4.13 on revs $4.05B vs est. $3.729B, adj FCF $2.5B; says lowering FY capital budget to $3.4-3.8B and cuts FY25 net production view to 857-900 from 883-909 MBOE/d.
• Talos Energy (TALO) Q1 adj EPS $0.06 vs. est. loss (-$0.09); Q1 revs $513M vs. est. $498.9M; Q3 adj net income $10.46M vs. est. -$20.3M; Q1 Production of 100.9 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (“MBoe/d”); said finished well completion operations on Sunspear discovery, with first production expected late Q2.
• Tidewater (TDW) Q1 EPS $0.83 vs. est. $0.59; Q1 revs $333.4M vs. est. $325.9M; Q1 average day rate for the quarter marked another record at $22,303, and we achieved a 50.1% gross margin; backs FY25 revenue view $1.32B-$1.38B, vs. est. $1.35B and backs FY25 gross margin view 48%-50%.
• Williams Energy (WMB) announced that effective July 1, 2025, President and CEO Alan Armstrong will become executive chairman of the Williams Board of Directors and Chad Zamarin, currently executive vice president of Corporate Strategic Development, will succeed him; Q1 adj EPS $0.60 vs. est. $0.56; raised dividend by 5.3%.

• Realty income (O) Q1 AFFO/shr $1.06 vs est. $1.06 on sales $1.38B vs est. $1.31B; guides FY AFFO/shr $4.22-4.28 vs est. $4.31 and EPS $1.40-1.46 vs est. $1.40.
• Upwork Inc. (UPWK) Q1 EPS $0.27 vs est. $0.26, adj EBITDA $56Mm vs est. $48.2Mm on revs $192.7Mm vs est. $188.3Mm; guides Q2 revs $184-189Mm vs est. $186.82Mm, adj EBITDA $45-49Mm vs est. $45.78Mm and adj EPS $0.26-0.28 vs est. $0.27; sees FY revs $740-760Mm vs est. $750.22Mm.

• Hims & Hears Health (HIMS) Q1adj EBITDA $91.1Mm vs est. $61.3MM on revs $586Mm vs est. $538.2Mm; guides Q2 revs $530-550Mm vs est. $564.56Mm and adj EBITDA $65-75Mm vs est. $70.36Mm; sees FY revs $2.3-2.4B vs est. $2.323B and adj EBITDA $295-335Mm vs est. $289.29Mm.
• Inspire Medical (INSP) Q1 EPS 0.10 vs est. ($0.25) on revs $201.3Mm vs est. $195.17Mm; guides FY revs $940-955Mm vs est. $949.65Mm, gr mgn 84-86% and EPS $2.20-2.30 vs prior $2.10-2.20 and est. $2.17.
• Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Q1 adj EPS $0.70 vs. est. $0.54; Q1 INGREZZA net product sales were $545, representing 8% growth y/y; Q1 revs $572.6M vs. est. $560.97M; are reaffirming 2025 INGREZZA net sales guidance of $2.5 to $2.6B.
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Q1 adj EPS $4.06 vs est. $4.32 on revs $2.77B vs est. $2.853B; guides FY revs $11.85-12.0B vs prior $11.75-12.0B and est. $11.969B, no change to other prior guide.

• Boise Cascade (BCC) Q1 EPS $1.06, vs. est. $1.28; Q1 revs $1.54B, vs. est. $1.53B; said expect capital expenditures in 2025, excluding potential acquisition spending, to total approximately $220M-$240M.
• BWX Technologies (BWXT) Q1 adj EPS $0.91 vs est. $0.75, adj EBITDA $129.8Mm vs est. $117.9Mm on revs $682.3Mm vs est. $644.5Mm; guides FY revs $3.0B vs est. $3.033B, FCF $265-285Mm and adj EPS $3.40-3.55 vs est. $3.49.
• Cabot Corp. (CBT) raises dividend to $0.45 from $0.43; Q2 adj EPS $1.90 vs. est. $1.86; Q2 revs $936M vs $1.019B last year; Q1 Reinforcement Materials segment EBIT of $131M; up 1% sequentially; down 12% y/y and Q1 Performance Chemicals segment EBIT of $50M up 11% sequentially; up 61% y/y; revising FY25 adj EPS guidance to be in the range of $7.15 to $7.50.
• Celanese (CE) Q1 adj EPS $0.57 vs. est. $0.39; Q1 revs $2.4B vs. est. $2.26B; sees Q2 adjusted EPS $1.30-$1.50, vs. consensus $1.39; said expect tailwinds as several non-recurring items from the first quarter do not repeat, including the resumption in the second quarter of the dividend in the Acetyl Chain from our partner in China.
• CRH Plc (CRH) Q1 EPS ($0.15) vs est. ($0.07) on revs $6.76B vs est. $6.754B; sees FY EPS $5.34-5.80 vs est. $5.78.
• Palantir (PLTR) Q1 adj EPS $0.13, in-line with consensus and revs rose 39% y/y to $884M vs. est. $862.8M; raises FY revs to $3.89B-$3.90B from prior view $3.74B-$3.76B (est. $3.75B); Q1 U.S. commercial revenue grew 71% y/y and 19% q/q to $255M and U.S. government revenue grew 45% y/y and 9% q/q to $373M.
• Primoris Services (PRIM) Q1 adj EPS $0.98 vs. est. $0.66; Q1 revs rose 16.7% y/y to $1.648B vs. est. $1.49B; Q1 Total backlog of $11.4B, down $0.5 billion q/q; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $4.20-$4.40, vs. consensus $4.31 and Adjusted EBITDA for FY25 is expected to range from $440M-$460M.
• Regal Rexnord (RRX) Q1 adj EPS $2.15 vs est. $1.83, adj EBITDA $309.5Mm vs est. $284.96Mm on sales $1.418B vs est. $1.368B; reaffirms FY guide, says mitigation actions expected to neutralize the impact of current tariffs on FY adj EBITDA and EPS.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) announced the launch window for its next mission for multi-launch customers, Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space, Inc. (iQPS). The mission, named ‘The Sea God Sees’, will launch from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand during a launch window that opens on May 17, 2025.
• Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Q1 adj EPS $1.63 vs est. $1.26 on revs $430.949Mm vs est. $409.05Mm; guides FY adj EPS $8.40-8.90 vs est. $7.27.
• Tesla’s (TSLA) sales volume in Germany nearly halved in April, German road traffic agency KBA said as Tesla sold 885 cars in Germany in April, down 45.9% from a year earlier while the number of Tesla’s sold between January and April 2025 dropped 60.4% to 5,820 units, compared with the same period last year.
• Olympic Steel Inc (ZEUS) files for a mixed shelf of up to $200M.

• Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) Q1 adj EPS $0.22 vs est. $0.22 on revs $120.15Mm vs est. $120.13Mm, adj gr mgn 69%; sees Q2 revs $118.5-128.5Mm and gr mgn 69%.