Early Look

Thursday, May 8, 2025

U.S. futures are surging overnight with the S&P (Spuz) spiking 1% to 5,710 and Nasdaq futures +1.4% or 280 points to 20,240 as President Trump is expected to announce a trade deal with the UK later on Thursday, the first for his administration since imposing sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs against all trading partners in early April. Trump teased a “major” pact in a post to Truth Social, yesterday and this morning confirmed it was the UK saying, “This should be a very big and exciting day for the United States of America and the United Kingdom. Press Conference at The Oval Office, 10A.M. Thank you!” The news of the first major trade deal was enough to push major averages higher. The details of the trade pact were not clear. The UK currently faces a universal 10% tariff on its exports to the US, alongside the sectoral 25% levy on steel, aluminum, and autos. Meanwhile, top US officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and trade representative Jamieson Greer, and their Chinese counterparts are scheduled to meet in Switzerland this weekend to hold trade discussions. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 148 points to 36,928, the Shanghai Index rose 9 points to 3,352, and the Hang Seng Index gained 84 points to 22,775. In Europe, the German DAX is up 275 points to 23,391, while the FTSE 100 rises 33 points to 8,592. Bitcoin prices jumping along with other risk assets, at highs +3.1% to $99,800.

U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday after a choppy trading day on greater optimism that the United States will reach deals with trading partners and after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected. Stocks spiked in the final 15 minutes of trading yesterday after Bloomberg News reported that President Trump’s administration plans to rescind Biden-era AI semiconductor chip curbs, which set restrictions on the export of advanced AI chips. The market was earlier boosted on news that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China’s economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend for talks. But the market was red for much of the day and fell after the Fed’s rate decision. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said rate cuts will depend on what the economy does (which is in-line with prior commentary from the Fed). Traders are now pricing in only a 23% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting, down from around 28% earlier on Wednesday.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 284.97 points, or 0.70%, to 41,113.97
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 48.50 points, or 0.27%, to 17,738.16
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 6.47 points, or 0.33% to 1,989.66

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.886M (prior 1.916M)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unit Labor Costs for Q1…est. +5.1%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Nonfarm Productivity for Q1…est. (-0.7%)
• 10:00 AM ET                Wholesale Inventory and Sales for March…est. +0.5%
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AAOI AFRM AHR AIV ALAM ALRM AMN ARKO ARLO ASTH ATGE BILL BIRD CARG CLAR CLNE COIN COMP CTKB CURLF DBX DCGO DH DIOD DKNG DV EB EVC EVH EXPE FARM FIGS FLWS FNKO FNV FOXF FROG FRT GDOT GMED GRWG HCI HUBS ICUI III IIIV INOD IOSP KRT LASR LESL LIDR LNT LPLA LYFT MAIN MARA MCHP MCK MELI MITK MNST MODV MP NET NKTR NTRA NUS NWS OS OUT PARA PBA PCRX PGNY PINS PODD POST PRTA PUBM REAL RKLB RKT RNG RXT SG SPT SSP ST STNE SYNA TKO TMCI TMDX TOST TPIC TREX TTD TTEC TXG TXRH VREX VSTA WEST WLDN WOLF WPM XPOF YELP ZD ZIP

• Needham 20^th Annual Tech, Media & Consumer Conference, 5/8-5/13
• Oppenheimer 20th Annual Industrial Growth Conference, 5/5-5/8
• Truist 2025 Industrials & Services Conference, 5/7-5/9, in Philadelphia, PA
• China Imports and Exports data for April

• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -22.1 vs -38.4 last week. Bulls rose to 29.4% from 20.9%, Neutrals dropped to 19% from 19.8%, Bears fall to 51.5% from 59.3%.

• Carvana (CVNA) Q1 adj EBITDA $488Mm vs est. $434.3Mm on revs $4.232B vs est. $3.981B, adj EBITDA mgn 11.5%; sees Q2 sequential increase in both retail units sold and adj EBITDA.
• Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) reported net sales of $21.18B for the retail month of April, the four weeks ended May 4, 2025, an increase of 7.0% from $19.80B last year; net sales for the first 35 weeks were $180.05B, an increase of 8.2% from $166.44B last year; total comp sales +4.4% for 4 weeks and US comps +5.2%.
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Q1 adj EPS $0.14 vs est. $0.11 on revs $355.152Mm vs est. $344.4Mm; guides FY revs $1.555-1.575B vs est. $1.584B, comps +2-4%, adj EBITDA $265-275Mm vs est. $278.71Mm.
• Flutter (FLUT) Q1 adj EBITDA 20% to $616M, and revs +8% y/y to $3.7B, average monthly players (amp) +8%; Q1 adj U.S. EBITDA $161M ($26M Q1 2024), revs +18% to $1.67B; Q1 sportsbook gross gaming REV market share 43% (43% Q4), iGaming GGR share 27% (26% Q4); guides FY25 EBITDA guidance $3.18B vs $3.18B.
• MercadoLibre (MELI) Q1 revs rose 37% y/y to $5.935B vs. est. $5.52B; Q1 Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) rose 17% YoY in dollars to reach $13.3B, with 40% FX Neutral growth; Unique buyers in commerce reached almost 67M in Q1, with new buyers sustaining the highest level of growth since early 2021, and fintech monthly active users crossed 64M in Q1, growing 31% y/y.
• Zillow (Z) Q1 revenue rose 13% y/y to $598M vs. est. $589.41M; Q1 adjusted EBITDA $153M, or 26% of revenue, driven by revenue growth across the business and cost discipline; guides Q2 adj Ebitda guidance $140M-$155M vs. est. $164M; For Sale revenue was up 8% year over year to $458M in Q1.

• Murphy Oil (MUR) Q1 adj EPS $0.56 vs. Est. $0.49; Q1 revs $665.7M vs. est. $668.86M; Q1 production averaged 157 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOEPD); Q1 capex was $403M; reaffirms 2025 capex and production guidance.
• Murphy USA (MUSA) Q1 EPS $2.63 vs est. $4.01, adj EBITDA $157.4Mm vs est. $197.31Mm on revs $4.53B vs est. $4.682B.
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Q1 adj EPS $0.87 vs. est. $0.76; Q1 revs $6.843B vs. est. $6.91B; Q1 total average global production was 1,391 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoed); and sees Q2 oil & gas total company production 1,377-1,417 MBoed; sees FY25 oil & gas total company production 1,390-1,440 MBoed; reducing the mid-point of 2025 capital guidance by $200M and domestic operating costs by $150M.
• Permian Resources (PR) Q1 adj EPS $0.42 vs est. $0.42 on sales $1.38B vs est. $1.383B, adj FCF $460Mm, adj CAPEX $501Mm; says maintaining FY oil and total production guidance ranges, reduced mid-point of FY capital budget by $50Mm to $1.95B.
• Permian Resources (PR) announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with APA Corporation (APA) to purchase approximately 13,320 net acres, 8,700 net royalty acres and 12,000 Boe/d directly offset Permian Resources’ core New Mexico operating areas for $608 million
• Sunrun (RUN) Q1 EPS $0.20 vs. est. loss (-$0.27); Q1 revs $504.27M vs. est. $484.06M; Customer Additions with Storage grew 46% in Q1 compared to the prior year, as Storage Attachment Rate reached a record 69%; FY25 Aggregate Subscriber Value is expected to be in a range of $5.7B-$6B, representing 14% growth y/y.
• Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Q1EPS $5.24, adj EBITDA $169.4M vs est. $180M on revs $196Mm vs est. $211M.

• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) Q1 EPS ($1.13) vs est. ($1.09); projects FY GAAP net loss between $840-900Mm; sees current cash, equivalents and marketable securities able to fund operations into 2H27.

• CF Industries (CF) Q1 EPS $1.85 vs. est. $1.51; Q1 revs $1.66B vs. est. $1.54B; Q1 adj Ebitda $644M vs. est. $563.5M; and Q1 net income $312M vs. est. $262.9M; authorized added $2B share repurchase plan; Q1 Gross ammonia production was approximately 2.6Mm tons compared to 2.1Mm tons y/y.
• Curtiss-Wright (CW) raises its FY25 adjusted EPS view $12.45-$12.80 from $12.10-$12.40 (est. $12.23) and boosts FY25 revenue view to $3.365B-$3.415B from $3.335B-$3.385B (est. $3.36B)
• Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) Q1 adj EPS $0.12 above est. $0.09 and sales $302.60M vs. est. $292.91M; said reconciliation bill increasing our confidence in 2025 and 2026 full yr financial forecasts; Sees 2Q Rev $300M-$310M while says Q3 and Q4 are forecasted to be particularly strong.
• Maersk (AMKBY) said container volumes plunged 30-40% between the U.S. in China in April as a trade war erupted between the world’s top economies, and warned a protracted dispute could shrink global volumes this year. However, it stuck to its full-year profit guidance, helped by continued disruption on the Red Sea trade route that has pushed up freight rates.
• Royal Gold (RGLD) Q1 adj EPS $1.51 vs est. $1.37 on revs $193.4Mm vs est. $176.17Mm, adj FCF $136.4Mm, EBITDA mgn 82%.

• Arm Holdings (ARM) Q4 adj EPS $0.55 vs. est. $0.53 and revs $1.24B vs. est. $1.23B; Q4 Royalty Revenue $607M, adj Oper Income: $655M vs. est. $621.8M; guides Q1 adj EPS $0.30-$0.38 vs. est. $0.42) and sees Q1 Revenue between $1B-$1.1B vs. est. $1.1B.
• Coherent (COHR) Q3 adj EPS $0.91 vs est. $0.86, adj op Inc $279Mm vs est. $253.7Mm on revs $1.498B vs est. $1.441B; guides Q4 revs $1.425-1.575B vs est. $1.474B and adj EPS $0.81-1.01 vs est. $0.91.
• CSG Systems (CSGS) Q1 adj EPS $1.14 tops consensus $1.01 and revs $299.5M vs. est. $272.84M; raises FY EPS view to $4.65-$4.90 from $4.55-$4.80 (est. $4.67) and sees FY revenue $1.21B-$1.25B vs. est. $1.14B.
• Fortinet (FTNT) Q1 adj EPS $0.58 vs est. $0.53 on revs $1.54B vs est. $1.54B, adj op mgn 34%; guides Q2 revs $1.59-1.65B vs est. $1.63B, Billings $1.685-1.765B, adj gr mgn 80-81%, adj op mgn 31.5-32.5%; sees FY revs $6.65-6.85B vs est. $6.762B, billings $7.2-7.4B, adj gr mgn 79-81%, adj op mgn 31.5-33.5%.
• IONQ Inc. (IONQ) Q1 revs $7.56M vs. est. $7.51M; Q1 EPS loss (-$0.14); announced $22M deal with EPB, including the sale of a New Forte Enterprise; Pending Acquisition of Lightsynq Technologies to accelerate both Quantum Internet and Quantum Computing Roadmap.
• MKS Instruments (MKSI) Q1 adj EPS $1.71 vs est. $1.44 on revs $936Mm vs est. $913.6Mm; guides Q2 revs $885-965Mm vs est. $937.59Mm, gr mgn 45.5-47.5%, adj EBITDA $193-249Mm vs est. $234.4Mm and adj EPS $1.28-1.84 vs est. $1.66.
• Paycom Software (PAYC) Q1 adj EPS $2.80 vs est. $2.56, adj EBITDA $253Mm vs est. $237.3Mm on revs $530.5Mm vs est. $524.9Mm; guides FY revs $2.023-2.038B vs est. $2.024B and adj EBITDA $843-858Mm vs est. $830.72Mm.
• Q2 Holdings (QTWO) Q1 adj EBITDA $40.7Mm vs est. $38.06Mm on revs $189.7Mm vs est. $186.67Mm; guides Q2 revs $191-195Mm vs est. $191.72MM and adj EBITDA $41-44Mm vs est. $41.09Mm; sees FY revs $776-783Mm vs est. $775.79Mm and adj EBITDA $170-175Mm vs est. $168.2Mm.
• SanDisk (SNDK) Q3 revs $1.7B, down -10% sequentially and above guidance range; sees Q4 revs $1.75B-$1.85%; guides Q4 EPS loss (-$0.10) to profit $0.15.
• Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) Q2 adj EPS $1.24 vs est. $1.20 on revs $953Mm vs est. $951.5Mm; guides Q3 revs $920-960Mm vs est. $921.97Mm and adj EPS $1.24 at mid-point vs est. $1.20; CFO Kris Sennesael to step down, Mark Dentinger taking over.